APBRmetrics

[Neil Paine]

Sorry about the long delay between posts. I don't know what was up with APBRmetrics this past week, with that virus and everything. Hopefully it won't happen again...

Stats thru 3/29/2008

Glossary of Terms

NOTE:I've updated the WARP formula to assume that the average player's usage/efficiency trade-off is +/-1.25 points of ORtg for every +/-1% of %Poss, per Eli's new research. I've also reformulated MRP based on 2007-08 salary data (thanks go out to Patricia Bender for posting this season's salaries); the formula is now: MRP = $580000 + ($1500000*WARP).
MRP MVP Race:

[Mountain]

Study of MRP / actual salary for sweet points to see which income band they are more often in and at which position or role or "player type" would interest me.

[Neil Paine]

Final Regular-Season BoP Stats

Glossary of Terms

Leaderboard & Awards:
(Minimum 500 Minutes)
Most Points Produced: Kobe Bryant, LA (2240)
Most Possessions Used: Kobe Bryant (1948)
Highest ORtg: Carl Landry, HOU (130.0)
Highest %Poss: Dwyane Wade, MIA (34.0%)
Lowest DRtg: Kevin Garnett, BOS (94.4)
Highest Floor%: Carl Landry (.649)
Most Defensive Stops: Dwight Howard, ORL (792)
Highest Stop%: Amir Johnson, DET (.692)
Most Touches/Min: Chris Paul, NO (2.49)
Highest % of touches that were passes: Jose Calderon, TOR (81%)
Highest % of touches that were shots: Rodney Carney, PHI (58%)
Highest % of touches that drew fouls: Leon Powe, BOS (29%)
Lowest % of touches that were turnovers: Rasual Butler, NO (2%)
Most Minutes/Game: Allen Iverson, DEN (41.8 )
Most Points/36 Minutes: LeBron James, CLE (27.4)
Highest 2-point FG %: Erick Dampier, DAL (.643)
Highest 3-point FG%: Jason Kapono, TOR (.483)
Highest Free Throw %: Brent Barry, SA (.950)
Highest True Shooting %: Andrew Bynum, LA (.659)
Highest Estimated % of FG Assisted: Malik Allen, NJ (.79)
Lowest Estimated % of FG Assisted: Chris Paul (.29)
Highest % of team shots taken while on the floor: LeBron James (32.2%)
Best Assist Ratio: Chris Paul (52.3)
Worst Assist Ratio: Dikembe Mutombo, HOU (1.2)
Best Turnover Ratio: Rasual Butler (4.4)
Worst Turnover Ratio: Hilton Armstrong, NO (26.6)
Best Pure Point Ratio: Chris Paul (13.83)
Worst Pure Point Ratio: David Harrison, IND (-6.88 )
Most Dribbling touches per 36 minutes: Chris Paul (84.2)
Fewest Dribbling touches per 36 minutes: Dikembe Mutombo (8.9)
Highest Free Throw Rate: Michael Ruffin, MIL (101.6)
Lowest Free Throw Rate: Malik Allen (5.0)
Highest 3-Point Tendency: Damon Jones, CLE (76.0%)
Lowest 3-Point Tendency: Many tied at 0.0%
Best Offensive Reb %: Michael Ruffin (16.1%)
Worst Offensive Reb %: Damon Jones (0.4%)
Best Defensive Reb %: Dwight Howard (31.6%)
Worst Defensive Reb %: Earl Boykins, CHA (5.0%)
Best Blocked Shot %: Amir Johnson (8.4%)
Best Steal %: Chris Paul (3.9%)

Lowest Per-Minute WARP Rate: Mardy Collins, New York (-0.082 WARP/36 Min)
2007-08 MRP Least Valuable Player: Jeff McInnis, Charlotte (-1.64 WARP, -$1,873,750 Fair Salary)
Highest Per-Minute WARP Rate: Chris Paul, New Orleans (0.244 WARP/36 Min)
2007-08 MRP Most Valuable Player: Chris Paul, New Orleans (20.41 WARP, $31,189,575 Fair Salary)
Runners Up: LeBron James, Cleveland (18.81 WARP, $28,800,320) and Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles (17.10 WARP, $26,228,631)

[Neil Paine]

Playoff BoP Stats (Thru Round 1)

Glossary of Terms

[Neil Paine]

Playoff BoP Stats (Thru Round 2)

Glossary of Terms

[Neil Paine]

Playoff BoP Stats (Thru Conference Finals)

Glossary of Terms

[Mountain]

Does the replacement player reference point remain at regular season level?

[Neil Paine]

Yeah, pretty much. Technically it changes based on the league's average offensive rating, but in this case the RS average (108.2) is exactly the same as the postseason average.

[Neil Paine]

UPDATE:Playoff BoP Stats (Thru Finals) - Now with statistical +/-!

Glossary of Terms

Playoffs MVP: Kevin Garnett, Boston

Thanks for a great season, everybody!

[Mike G]

Did Garnett have the most WARP for just the Finals, as well as for the entire playoffs?

Garnett has 3.95 over 26 games; Kobe had 3.54 in just 21 G. That's .169 W/G for Kobe, and .152 for KG.
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39% of all statistics are wrong

[Neil Paine]

Actually, Ray Allen had the most WARP (1.07) of anyone in the Finals. 4 Celtics (Allen, Pierce, Garnett, Posey) had better Finals than Kobe, the leading Laker, and he barely beat out Rondo and Powe.

On the playoffs, Kobe and KG were essentially equal on a per-minute basis.

[Mike G]

[benji]

Is that not similar to arguing that a model is superior because it gives you the results you desire?

[Mike G]

Well, the questions I posed may seem like an argument, but maybe that's because the answers seem obvious. I wouldn't have to ask any assemblage of fans, coaches, players, etc, whether Kobe was better than Powe or Posey; or whether they'd trade Kobe for one of these others (or both); etc.

So I asked how people reading this here forum feel about it. A model that returns absurd results should be questioned. I'm not saying these results are absurd, but they're questionable.

One mental exercise is to wonder how the teams would have fared if Kobe and Posey were switched. There could be chemistry issues for the Celtics. Would Posey have shot 70% with LA?

If you can imagine a plausible scenario, in which LA wins 2 of 6 while starting Posey -- vs an alltime defense, in which Kobe is the best of 4 potent scorers -- then you have a fertile imagination. And that's a good thing.

The standard BoP argument here is that Posey did his job as a 6th man better than Kobe did his job as the go-to guy. That's probably true. But without Kobe, the Lakers don't win more than one game (if they're lucky). Without Posey, do the Celts win just 1, or 0?
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39% of all statistics are wrong

[Ryan J. Parker]