APBRmetrics

[Mountain]

The 07=08 Celtics are fine champions. Congrats.

The checklist of what teams need to challenge the Celtics (grades for main contenders based on whether in top 10 or very near for 07-08 regular season data and before any roster changes or "development"):

1. Be a strong road team (to counter likelihood of Celtics having home court and their road power if it shows up)

Pass the test: Pistons, Magic, Lakers, Spurs, Rockets, Hornets, 76ers, Wizards, Cavs.

2. Strong against the best teams (from usa today, performance against top 10 teams on sagarin ratings page)

Pass the test: Pistons, Magic, Lakers, Spurs, Jazz, Hornets, Mavs, Rockets, Cavs, Nuggets

3. Strong offensive rebounding %

Pass the test: Pistons, Cavs, Jazz, Rockets, Bulls, 76ers, Hawks, Wizards

4. Forced turnovers %

Pass the test: Bulls. Pistons, Raptors, Wizards, Nuggets 76ers and Hornets.

5. Play fast (team pace)

Pass the test: Magic, Lakers, Suns, Nuggets, Bulls

6. Free Throw rate (FTM/FGA)

Pass the test: Magic, Lakers, Jazz, Mavs, Nuggets, Hawks, Wizards

Criteria 3-6 selected based on better than the norm success against Celtics for teams good on these factors according to W-L profile page at 82games.com.

7. Strong 3 point attack (both 3pt FG% and volume). I am making simple assumption that this is an important tool in beating their historically strong defense.

Pass the test: Pistons, Magic, Lakers, Spurs, Rockets, Hornets, Raptors, Blazers, Wizards, Nuggets

8. Good at guarding the positions played by Boston's big 3 (points scored against per game by those positions from Hoopsstats.com / blended)

Pass the test: Pistons, Magic, Lakers, Spurs, Rockets, Hornets, Cavs, Mavs

9. Challenge Garnett (perhaps with a face up game). Keep him busy, maybe sap his energy or get him in foul trouble.

Pass the test: Pistons, Lakers, Spurs, Hornets, Mavs, Suns, Jazz, Raptors, Rockets, Blazers, Wizards, Magic

10. Shoot the rock well (team eFG%)

Lakers, Spurs, Hornets, Mavs, Suns, Jazz, Raptors, Nuggets, Magic


Cumulative Scores (unweighted)

Lakers 8, Magic 8, Pistons 7, Hornets 7, Spurs 6, Rockets 6, Nuggets 6, Wizards 6, Mavs 5, Jazz 5, Raptors 4, Cavs 4, Suns 3, Bulls 3, 76ers 3, Blazers 2. Hawks 2.

This is specifically about effectiveness of challenge to Celtics if teams get to there based on this list and not other criteria that certainly are important and could be added on a stand alone, standard basis. It is not "overall quality".

Feel free to use this as a springboard for commentary or the addition of other analysis.

For comparison if interested here was the order of contenders to Celtics in a sportsbook as of a week or 2 ago:

Los Angeles Lakers
Detroit Pistons
San Antonio Spurs
New Orleans Hornets
Houston Rockets
Cleveland Cavaliers
Utah Jazz
Dallas Mavericks
Phoenix Suns
Chicago Bulls

The Magic was in the next group just outside these top 10 contenders. And might be undervalued. 8 of top 10 are the same on both lists but by this method Nuggets and Wizards are included while considering overall quality (and the market) that sportsbook had the Suns and Cavs.

[devin3807]

The Magic show up in six of your ten, but not on the bottom list?

[Mountain]

Thanks. I was constructing and checking for completeness.

[Ryan J. Parker]

Can we quantify these in any way? What does it mean to "Shoot the rock well" or "Play fast"?

[Mountain]

"Pass" means top 10 in league or real close of each criteria.

[eyriq]

Why not the Magic for 9 and 10 as well? Just wondering really, not arguing, though Lewis is a "face up" 4 and over at KnickerBlogger.net the Magic are 2cd in eFG%.

[Mountain]

Thanks. First pass I'd didn't get it all but made the requested revisions and a few more I found and think it is complete now. If anyone else has a recommended edit based on top 10 or real close let me know.

The Hawks overachieved (Celtics underachieved) in their series compared to this score.

Lakers underachieved on many of the criteria