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[Doc319]

The whole issue of giving a player responsibilities versus signing him on the basis of his skills is basically semantics and not central to what I am interested in here--the question of whether Diaw has improved or is simply doing the same things he always did but with more on court time. I would in fact say that a team would sign Shaq for the purpose of giving him scoring/rebounding responsibilities. Is it not Shaq's responsibility to score and rebound? A team wouldn't sign him with the idea that he would lead the squad in steals or assists. For a historic example of a player who had varying responsibilities on different teams, Wilt Chamberlain scored 50 ppg one season and later in his career took on more playmaking responsibilities and drastically curtailed his FGAs. Just to prove to critics that he could still score if he wanted to (or had the same "game," to use the phrase currently in vogue), Chamberlain would break out for a 40, 50 or 60 point game once or twice a year. I don't think that Phoenix signed Diaw with the idea that he would be second on the team in assists. He was granted the opportunity to do that much ball handling and distributing when he showed that he was able to handle those responsibilities. Of course, Stoudemire's injury provided an opportunity for someone to play more minutes and Diaw has been the beneficiary of that opportunity. If Diaw were turning the ball over or simply unable to make passes that lead to assists than someone else would be given the responsibility of being the team's second ball distributor after Nash.

My post referring to Diaw's minutes appears to have caused some confusion. First I mentioned 25 minutes per game and then later in the post I referenced 25 minutes per game or less. So I see how different people could read that and interpret it in different ways. Bob thought that I was only referring to Diaw's rookie season, while Mike G looked at Diaw's body of work in Atlanta. What I was getting at is that in his two seasons in Atlanta he played 25 minutes per game or less (i.e., the phrasing I used later in that post), which is to say half of the game or less. Starters tend to play 32 minutes or more. Perhaps "bit player" was a bit harsh but Diaw was playing half the game or less for a bad team. Now he is playing 35 minutes a game for a division winner. No matter how anyone slices and dices the comings and goings of the flotsam and jetsam on Atlanta's roster, this is a significant upgrade in Diaw's oncourt time and it is hard to make a case that with that increased time he is playing less often against starters and starting quality players.

Diaw's minutes went down from his first year to his second year. Perhaps this was because of injuries, the shifting of personnel on the team or other reasons, but the decrease in minutes does not fit in with the theory that his game was developing as a young player's game would be expected to naturally develop. The "developing" has happened this year in Phoenix--significant increase in minutes and a corresponding increase in production. Most people seem to believe that Diaw has improved as a player. Bob's contention is that he was doing the same (or similar) things all along--on a per touch basis--in Atlanta. My question is, whether we look at his 25 mpg season or his 18 mpg season or the body of work of both seasons, does the sim take into account two possible factors: one, it is easier to maintain a given rate of production in a smaller amount of minutes (less fatigue, no foul trouble to possibly curb aggressiveness, etc.); two, a player who plays lesser minutes is likely on the court with a lower caliber of opposition players, making it easier to pass, shoot, rebound, etc. For the first point, consider another Sun, Eddie House, as an example. He scores roughly 10 ppg in roughly 17 mpg, providing "instant offense" off the bench, usually against the other team's second unit. Would the sim assume/project that if he played 34 mpg that he would average 20 ppg? Getting back to Diaw, prior to this season would it have been reasonable to assume that he could maintain his per minute rates in Atlanta with significantly increased playing time? Speaking of Diaw's rates, according to my calculations in his two Atlanta seasons he scored .21 points per minute, averaged .16 rebounds per minute and .106 assists per minute. This year he has nearly doubled his per minute scoring (.38), significantly increased his per minute assists (.17) and improved his per minute rebounding as well (.19); these numbers don't include the last couple games, so they might be off slightly, but it seems to me that Diaw is not only playing more minutes on a better team but he is scoring and passing at a much higher rate. By what calculation does the sim determine that he is doing the same things that he has always done on a per touch basis?

Again, the bottom line question that I am trying to answer is if Diaw has improved or is in fact as Bob suggests simply doing roughly the same things that he did per touch in Atlanta. My followup question to that is, if in fact Diaw basically has the same "game" that he had in Atlanta, how many other 25 mpg or less players are there in the NBA who could be transplanted to a good team and play 35 mpg while being second on the team in assists? I'd be interested to see a list of candidates, so that we can follow their careers and see how common or rare this in fact is. Anyone who could predict this kind of thing with a high degree of accuracy would be invaluable to a team; how many GMs would love to have a list of guys who are languishing on bad teams playing 25 or less mpg who could in fact play 35 mpg on a division winner without any loss of per minute production?

--David Friedman
http://20secondtimeout.blogspot.com/

[Carlos]

My take is that Diaw was really improving in Atlanta during his second year, but that Harrington's arrival forced the Hawks to play him more at SG or PG, positions where his lack of shooting range hurted him a lot, and that "masked" his improvement. He had already shown signs of improvement before arriving to Phoenix, too, playing better in summer league and doubling his production with France's national team (voted as team's best player, over Parker and Pietrus).

[Mark]

"how many other 25 mpg or less players are there in the NBA who could be transplanted to a good team and play 35 mpg while being second on the team in assists? I'd be interested to see a list of candidates"

Here are some names that came to mind as possible fits with these criteria: Beno Udrih, Jasikevicius, maybe Milt Palacio, John Salmons and Jarett Jack. Combo guards all but I could see bigger things including assists per game possible for most of them if in a different situation.

Already mentioned Luke Walton is the main big and then Deng and possibly D Granger if playing in a Paul Pierce way. (Joey and Steven Graham have some size/strength enough for SF or maybe a little PF coverage. Joey more offensive talent, Stephen more willing to pass, perhaps to mask not being that hot a shot right now.)

Further down the line but one case perhaps worth a flyer footnote might be lightly used so far Donta Smith. Diaw size body but more athletic? with some passing abilty shown in limited NBA time and in D league.

If you looked for a Diaw mix of skills in the draft, after Bargnani, Thabo Sefolosha sounds somewhat interesting in this vein http://draftexpress.com/viewprofile.php?p=280
6-7 205, guards best player on court, including (European) big men, rebounds, with handles,intelligent, hardworking etc. Sound like he could play SF especially after some weight work here.

Jerry Stackhouse is a pretty good passer from the SG and SF and has played an occasional minute at PF. Now 32 if quickness became a defensive issue he might play more forward and more inside like the last hoorah Jordan. If traded to a different team and they needed it he might still be able to play 35 minutes and be a #2 passer.)

(Rick Fox skills/usage had some resemblance to Diaw, playing PF at times when needed. If you looked at a long view of history there are more 6-6 to 6-8 players who played inside and made contributions in many ways, some at much higher levels such as Barkley and Baylor)

[Doc319]

That's a pretty interesting list, Mark. The only guy I would disqualify is Stackhouse; he has already been a 35 mpg performer, so the only question with him would be is he still healthy enough to be a productive 35 mpg player. Diaw never was a 35 mpg player until this season and I believe that the same is true of the other players that you listed. What particular statistical tendencies/similarities among these players or with Diaw led you to select them? I understand Bob's original post about Diaw to mean that Diaw's performance this year is not unexpected and would in fact have been predictable, assuming that the predictor knew how much Diaw's minutes would increase. I still don't understand how his "per-touch" numbers are supposedly the same or similar when his per-minute scoring, assists and even rebounds have all increased. It seems to me that it would have been a bit of a reach before this season to predict that Diaw would be this productive, which is why I am curious if such a "prediction" can be duplicated--i.e., is it possible to use the same techniques that "would have" predicted Diaw's productivity with the Suns to identify the next "Diaw," as opposed to waiting until he shows up and then saying that his arrival was easy to predict.

--David Friedman
http://20secondtimeout.blogspot.com/

[bchaikin]

the bottom line question that I am trying to answer is if Diaw has improved or is in fact as Bob suggests simply doing roughly the same things that he did per touch in Atlanta.

are you under the impression this is an either/or scenario? these are not mutually exclusive events - players increase (and decrease) their touches/min all the time yet maintain what they do per touch...

I still don't understand how his "per-touch" numbers are supposedly the same or similar when his per-minute scoring, assists and even rebounds have all increased.

break out your abacus - if a player gets 32 touches in a game playing 36 minutes and takes 8 shots, that's 1 shot for every 4 touches and 0.89 touches/min. if the next game he plays 36 minutes and gets 36 touches and takes 9 shots, that's 1.00 touches/min but still 1 shot for every 4 touches. take this same concept and extend it to consecutive seasons as opposed to just consecutive games...

It seems to me that it would have been a bit of a reach before this season to predict that Diaw would be this productive, which is why I am curious if such a "prediction" can be duplicated--i.e., is it possible to use the same techniques that "would have" predicted Diaw's productivity with the Suns to identify the next "Diaw," as opposed to waiting until he shows up and then saying that his arrival was easy to predict.

look at the historical stats - there are plenty of examples of this...

[Mark]

Donta Smith 2006:

TS% 58%, assist rating 21, rebound rating 6, utilization rating 13


Donta Smith 2005:

TS% 48%, assist rating 20, rebound rating 7, utilization rating 16

His minutes were cut in half. Shooting % improvement and A/TO improvement from 1.5 to 2.3 but some treading water otherwise (like the Diaw did that). Does he also have more potential? I dont claim to know, just thought he was a useful case for the topic. He has had a good last 10 games 70% FG, 50% higher scoring rate per 48 and tendex. Will he get to and show it in Atlanta or will he have to go elsewhere like Diaw did?


Boris Diaw 2006:

TS% 56%, assist rating 31, rebound rating 11, utilization rating 17


Boris Diaw 2005:

TS% 48%, assist rating 26, rebound rating 8, utilization rating 15


I wondered if Atlanta felt Diaw was expendable not only because Joe Johnson was coming but they had Childress and both of the Smiths.
I knew Atlanta loved 6-6 to 6-8 guys from previous study, so if you were looking for future Diaws they seemed a good place to look.

If Bob has Donta Smith's per touch analysis handy or easily produced, I would appreciate the assist. Looking at these measures I dont think it would be too surprising if Donta Smith given the time and therole could equal or exceed 2005 Diaw next year or the year after and might reach 2006 Diaw levels at some point. Per 48 minutes Donta is 13 pts 5 rebs 4 assists rounded off, while last year Diaw was 13 pts 7 rebs 6 assists per 48. Anyone who has watched him enough to offer a more informed opinion that would be welcome.

His draftnet bio said in part :

"Strengths: Wonderfully built pro ready body standing at 6-7 and weighing 230 pounds … Because of his strength he is a great finisher after contact occurs in the lane … Ball handling ability is very refined for a player his size … Add in his quick first step and he is a threat to take defenders off the dribble … Extremely athletic leaper capable of impressive forays to the basket … Has tremendously quick hands that enable him to disrupt passing lanes … Great rebounder for his size who understands how to use his body and athleticism under the glass ..."


P.S. I knew Stackhouse violated the under 25 minute criteria for career but he has been close to that level for awhile and thinking of Diaw a wing going more inside, I just thought is there any real reason Stackhouse couldnt do it too if asked? I dont expect it, it might not be anymore value from him than playing normally but I think he could do it.

Will the Diaw example encourage more use of strong "wings" playing an inside postion? Starting officially at 4 or 5 may still be too much for most but being a 3/4 inside/outside seems modern, workable and we may see more. Especially is athletic PFs more often play the center position and the crop of shooting powerforwards (with 3pt skill) expands in coming decade as I assume it will from Europe but also from college as this is a viable path to an NBA job now. In this case the position designation isnt as important as the role.

If you have a modern center playing more offense (Amare) and a modern 4 shooting more outside (Marion) (space between the official bigs to avoid double team post shutdowns?) , then a 3 (Diaw) who can contribute to rebounding, inside defense, inside scoring (by slicing or posting a smaller man)and playmaking help seems to make sense fulfilling the roles of the past across the 3 positions in a new mix? Diaw more at SF next year? as starter or backup 3 along with some backup 4 while Thomas gets the backup 5 minutes? Will be interesting to see how D'Antoni choreographs Thomas/Amare S Marion/Diaw time and position and role next year.

Atlanta has Zaza I see as really a PF turned C (in part due to the tragedy with Collier), Marvin Williams as the shooter (it is hoped he will further develop his shooting skills in combo with some inside game) or SF playing PF, and lots of guys who can contribute on inside work from the 3 spot (and big 2 or backup 4).

[Mark]

I thought about trying manual calculations of touches for current year but after reviewing the formula, just using the database is the way to go.

[Eli W]

If you download Bob's database from the APBR site it is updated with 04-05 stats. It's the link called Statistical Database under the big APBR logo at the top here:

http://hometown.aol.com/bradleyrd/apbr.html

[Mark]

Thanks for the tip. I had an old 2003 copy of the database in my files. The bballsports.com link says thru 2004 but I wasnt sure if that mean thru 2003-4 or 2004-5, I initially thought it meant the former. But using the link you mentioned I will look at the thru last season db and look forward to the next update thru this year.


I see Donta Smith last year at 0.94 touches, 28% shoot, 56% pass 6% TO, 10% Fouled.

Add: and this year I now see Donta Smith 0.69 touches, 29% shoot, 59% pass 2% TO, 10% Fouled. Touches down by more than 25% but much fewer turnovers and more passes. Seems like player improvement and role reduction. Perhaps better is ahead.

[bchaikin]

If you download Bob's database from the APBR site it is updated with 04-05 stats. It's the link called Statistical Database under the big APBR logo at the top here:

http://hometown.aol.com/bradleyrd/apbr.html

i haven't updated the APBR stats database yet with 05-06 numbers, but the superDB at www.bballsports.com has recent nba stats...

[Mark]

Ok. I will download that one too.

(Donta Smith year to year touches based data comparison shown above in previous post.)

[Eli W]

Thanks for the tip Bob. I didn't realize you had a version of the database available with updated stats for the current season.

[Mark]

Walton this year 1.04 touches per minute, 23% shot 5% fouled 6% TO 66% pass
Walton last year 1.07 touches per minute, 22% shot 5% fouled 7% TO 66% pass

Diaw this year 1.48 touches per minute, 20% shot 5% fouled 4% TO 71% pass
Diaw last year 1.04 touches per minute, 22% shot 5% fouled 7% TO 66% pass

Walton last year and this year nearly identical to Diaw last year.

(Stackhouse this year 1.26 touches per minute, 31% shot 10% fouled 6% TO 53% pass. Different, but maybe not as big as his earlier career.)

[Doc319]

Bob, if I understand you correctly you are saying that Diaw's minutes and touches have increased this year but that what he does per touch in terms of shooting, passing, etc. has remained pretty much the same (other than the decrease in TOs and increase in blocks that you mentioned). So he has improved in the sense of being productive in a larger amount of minutes and is doing the same (or similar) things in terms of your per touch calculations.

--David Friedman
http://20secondtimeout.blogspot.com/

[dlirag]

Cutting TO from 7% to 4% looks like a major improvement.