Daily Roundup 3.21.07
Posted on Wednesday, March 21st, 2007 at 9:45 am by Xteve
The best piece you’ll read today, courtesy of the Prime Minister Sinister Cool Kevin Pelton.
Good teams win close games more frequently than bad teams, but the difference is not as dramatic as it is for games decided by at least six points. This makes sense conceptually. Think of the difference between the one-and-done NCAA Tournament and the best-of-seven NBA postseason in terms of upsets. The better team comes up empty far more in the NCAA frequently (occasionally, like Wisconsin or Texas, ruining your bracket in the process) because the series is shorter. Anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament, and the same is true of the last five minutes of a close game.
Locke chips in on the same subject.
In late-game clutch moments, Ray is 7-of-22. This is surprisingly low for someone as good as Ray.
A surprise was how good and important Gelabale has been late in games. While he has played sparingly in those circumstances, he has hit three key shots as well as two big free throws. That is three of the 12 close game wins this season where the rookie has made a big play. As a reminder, Gelabale hit the game-winning three in the Spanish League finals a couple of years ago.
And why he can’t beg borrow or steal minutes right now is a crime … FREE GELABALE!
Gilbert Arenas, Flying Dynamite
Now that Arenas is one of the league’s best players, his stories are endearing. He came out during introductions for the season opener in a blue robe with a hood, supposedly to look like a wizard. He once said he wants to convert his house to high-altitude conditions so he can stay in better shape. He told The Washington Post he prefers to sleep on his couch rather than his bed and he once ate 12 cheeseburgers on a trip to Toronto to play the Raptors.
On his blog three weeks ago, he announced that his girlfriend was expecting to give birth to a baby boy.
“They can’t call him Gilbert,” he wrote, “because they’re gonna call him, ‘Who’s eating Gilbert’s Grape.’ ”
Ray went to the doctors today to have his foot checked out. Not sure how serious it is. He was getting treatment after the game in Portland on Sunday and was not available to speak to us, a rarity, and the fact that he is going to the doctor sends up a red flag for me. Bob was downplaying it, I guess we will see what happens tomorrow and if he is available.
Better than cheaptickets.com without the annoying commercials. Seeing Shat mack on some poor girl 60 years his junior is kinda sickening.
“With any franchise people, [fans] want to see a team do well,” Sonics vice chairman Lenny Wilkens said recently. “If they’re not doing well, they want to be sitting in some comfortable seat or something. If you take it all — they’re not playing well, you don’t have a great place to view it — then negativism builds.
“But to pinpoint exactly when it happened [in Seattle], I have no idea.”
About time this got out there to counteract the nattering nabobs of negativism who have dominated the debate so far.
In another note I’ve recently started reading Neil Gaiman’s awesome graphic novel 1602. Fans of the Sandman or Gaiman’s other work should check it out — it’s terrific, fantastic artwork too.
Looking forward to tonight’s game!
March 21st, 2007 at 10:09 am
Carl Brutananadilewski is a legend.
Anyway, with regards to the Seattle Supersonics, Mickael Gelabale hasn’t played enough minutes at the end of close games to determine whether or not he’s a clutch player.
March 21st, 2007 at 10:22 am
Pelton finds a difference of about three games over the course of the season between number of close games they won and what the average suggests for a team with that level of success in non-close games. So the close game loss argument has been overblown and they’d still be non-playoff right now if they had done average in close games.
Factoring in this information, team is slightly better than they appear this year with injuries. Team last year was a few games worse. So season to season they stayed about the same. Remove the injuries and return the same cast they probably will be somewhat stronger. But whereas 8th seed this year is at 48% Win. I have a feeling it will be more normal next season, maybe 55%. Based on getting healthy next season with Peja I expect Hornets offense will perk up a bit and with a pretty good defense they are my early pick for 8th seed next season. Sonics will probably have to increase wins by 10 to contend for that spot. That is asking for a lot more things to go right. It is possible but may take some luck too.
March 21st, 2007 at 10:29 am
“Mickael Gelabale hasn’t played enough minutes at the end of close games to determine whether or not he’s a clutch player. ”
But Sene has played enough minutes for you to completely write him off ?
March 21st, 2007 at 10:38 am
- Funny…well considering that most of us have probably played more minutes of organized basketball than Sene I guess in about 6 years we will be able to see how good he is…
Here is a question…could they have just left him over in Europe?? Does the player have to already be on a European team to stay or could we have set him up on a European team and let him develop a year or two before we started him on his rookie contract.
- Gelabale is plays for the Sonics?? I thought we traded him when Lewis came back…
March 21st, 2007 at 10:40 am
Steve,
Also, how many minutes are we looking for before we can make an educated guess on Sene? I would imagine with Swift coming back next year that he would play about 20mpg, then we also have Collsion, Wilcox, Petro and perhaps a top 5 draft pick to play.
So Sene can get what 10mpg, tops??
March 21st, 2007 at 10:45 am
“But whereas 8th seed this year is at 48% Win. I have a feeling it will be more normal next season, maybe 55%.”
I agree with that. The Western Conference isn’t as strong 1-8 as it has been in past years.
A 10 game turnaround isn’t out of the question if they add some veteran players and different coaching. It’s been done before many times, but again the key is adding experienced players to fill out the rotation. As long as this team only has two guys with more than 5 years experience in the rotation it will continue to struggle.
As evidence of a quick turnaround I’ll point to the recent turnaround by the Miami Heat who went from a 25 win team in 2002-03 to a 42 win team in 03-04 after drafting Dwayne Wade and having Stan Van Gundy take over, from there they went to a 59 win team in 04-05 upon adding Shaq and a mostly veteran bench.
March 21st, 2007 at 10:46 am
“Also, how many minutes are we looking for before we can make an educated guess on Sene?”
I try to wait till a guy has 2000 or so minutes before judging to harshly
“I would imagine with Swift coming back next year that he would play about 20mpg, then we also have Collsion, Wilcox, Petro and perhaps a top 5 draft pick to play.”
One of these four probably won’t be back, don’t know who but that’s just a guess. I’d also guess Swift will be given every opportunity to get 30 minutes a game.
“So Sene can get what 10mpg, tops??”
I’d like them to hire a real big mans coach and send him with Mo to the D-League for most of hte year next year.
Playing in both summer leagues this year should really help him as well.
March 21st, 2007 at 10:58 am
“Steve,
Also, how many minutes are we looking for before we can make an educated guess on Sene? I would imagine with Swift coming back next year that he would play about 20mpg, then we also have Collsion, Wilcox, Petro and perhaps a top 5 draft pick to play.
So Sene can get what 10mpg, tops?? ”
It’s not about mpg, it’s about total minutes at this stage.
In two years Robert Swift has played about 1000 minutes and I don’t think anyone can say conclusively what his full potential as a player is.
Yet some people can watch Sene who has played one tenth of that time (105 total minutes) and make definitive projections from that sample. It’s totally bogus.
One thing I think we can agree on is that Mo needs to be playing. I don’t care if it’s here or in the NBDL or whereever, he should be playing. I am a big proponent of the trial by fire method for NBA rookies. I think you give them a regular role and see how they handle it. I don’t believe guys get better by sitting on the bench. Sene’s problem to an extent is Hill. Either Hill totally overstated/misjudged his abilities in the summertime when he said he could start, or Sene isn’t getting quality instruction from the coaching staff here.
“I would imagine with Swift coming back next year that he would play about 20mpg, then we also have Collsion, Wilcox, Petro and perhaps a top 5 draft pick to play. ”
If Nick and Petro were a better combination this wouldn’t be a problem as Petro could start and Mo could back him up, since that doesn’t work and with Robert coming back I agree with Scott that they should send Mo to the D league if there isn’t a clear cut 15 mpg role for him here.
March 21st, 2007 at 11:16 am
Locke has just reported that Ray Allen will not be playing in tonight’s game. I am still predicting a win tonight as the Wizards are really struggling and are undergoing their own injury problems (e.g. Caron Butler will not play).
Perhaps Gilbert Arenas’s promise to score 50 against the Blazers was really a promise to score 50 against a team from the Northwest? I really like this guy. He’s great for the league. Brian Wheeler’s call at the end of last night’s game shows that he really took Areana’s audicious promises personally.
March 21st, 2007 at 11:16 am
Gelabale was still under contract with his european team for this season but wanted to come over and the Sonics participated in his buyout He is a restricted free agent next summer. 2 year deal prevents him from being lost if they want to keep him but how much mileage will they see from him before having to re-sign? Around 1000 minutes this season , will it be 1000, 1500 or 2000 next? They probably couldnt have refused to take Gelabale this year because he could easily have turned his back on them. 1000 minutes this year was an ok level of use just very uneven. I assume they will find some way to increase next season usage but it is up in the air and dependent on next coach and summer decisions of front office. It is a story that could take several different directions. His play level can’t be taken as being for sure a certain level yet By end of next season it should be known a lot better.Hopefully.
March 21st, 2007 at 11:22 am
Thank you for the report Alex. I always appreciate the updates.
Ray should just shut it down for the year. If he’s really in that much pain, how much would he be able to help in a playoff series, presuming the team actually made it in?
March 21st, 2007 at 11:23 am
I wouldnt be surprised if some teams offer 1st round picks for Gelabale. Would they say no to 15th or later? Probably. Might they consider at 10-12?
March 21st, 2007 at 11:28 am
Sonics quantity of close games on pace to end up higher than any recent year for them and it appears probably on high end for around the league. That may be more the story than the win %.
March 21st, 2007 at 11:30 am
“Ray should just shut it down for the year.”
Absolutely! I just wish Ray would shut it down. The team isn’t going to the playoffs and we have a better shot at the #3 spot going into the lottery if he gets the surgery now. Not to mention, the team will be able to get Gelebale more minutes the rest of the way.
Just Do It, Ray!
March 21st, 2007 at 11:32 am
Does anyone else believe that managements position this summer will be:
“Well, if Rashards price gets too high we can just go with Gelebale.”
March 21st, 2007 at 11:43 am
“Does anyone else believe that managements position this summer will be:
“Well, if Rashards price gets too high we can just go with Gelebale.”
Well that depends on who management actually is this summer, doesn’t it?
March 21st, 2007 at 11:47 am
from what I saw this year I believe that Gelabale cannot replace Rashard but I think the team can do well with him at the SF.
March 21st, 2007 at 12:00 pm
Hey Steve-
I’ve been trying to get in touch with someone in Admin for this site, but I couldnt find contact info anywhere.
My name is Colin Sibley, and I work for Protrade.com, a free online fantasy sports stock market. We’re looking to expand our content offerings for each NBA team and after searching the web for good Seattle blogs & fan pages we’d be very interested in featuring your site as the “Protrade Pick” for our Sonics, Ray Allen & Rashard Lewis pages. Please email me if you might have some interest in linking up with us and I’ll send you some more details.
Thanks,
Colin
March 21st, 2007 at 12:01 pm
“from what I saw this year I believe that Gelabale cannot replace Rashard but I think the team can do well with him at the SF. ”
I think so too … it’d be a totally different look. They wouldn’t be expecting him to provide rashard’s offensive production (maybe make that up between Wilcox and Swift) but he would be a nice defender and additional ballhandler which they don’t have now. Kind of like having Brent Barry’s facilitator skills at the SF position except with defense.
March 21st, 2007 at 12:09 pm
I wouldnt be surprised if some teams offer 1st round picks for Gelabale. Would they say no to 15th or later? Probably. Might they consider at 10-12?
- Whoa…whoa…whoa…I definately do not thing we could get a lotto pick for Gelabale. C’mon now…I find Hill to be totally incompetent, but you are saying he isn’t playing a lotto level talent??
I try to wait till a guy has 2000 or so minutes before judging to harshly
In two years Robert Swift has played about 1000 minutes and I don’t think anyone can say conclusively what his full potential as a player is.
- So Sene needs 1900 more minutes I would assume in the next three years to be able to make a judgment. Also, in this thread it has been mentioned that Swift will be given every opportunity to get 30+ mpg. That only leaves Sene with a chance of 15mpg for the next few years. This means we won’t be able to mak definative decision until the very end of year three…thats a long time.
March 21st, 2007 at 12:20 pm
I just read a piece on Balkman’s stats per minute and thought he is another name that Gelabale could be compared with. Right now Balkman has the lead in these categories- pts, rebs, steals, blocks, 1 on 1 defense- by wide margins. close to tied on assists per 48, while the shooting %s, turnovers and rate of fouling favor Gelabale.
A stronger, more confident and assertive Gelabale likely to rise. I don’t know if Balkman can rise or if he just arrived ready and near peak.
March 21st, 2007 at 12:23 pm
Myk I am mainly saying that a playoff level team (picking late in first round) may prefer Gelablale if he fit a role next year over a brand new rookie with a 3 year minimum commitment
March 21st, 2007 at 12:26 pm
Dammit, Myk, you and I are on the same page concerning Mickael Gelabale not being worth a first-round draft pick. Plus, we agree about the fact that Mouhamed Sene doesn’t have enough experience playing basketball at this juncture in his life to ever become a productive player in the NBA.
Anyway, Steve, Gelabale doesn’t possess the same level of ball-handling and playmaking skills as Brent Barry. Due to Gelabale’s average abilities, he’s not suited to play the point forward position.
March 21st, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Looking at draftnet 16-30 I’d take Gelabale over at least 5 of those guys.
March 21st, 2007 at 12:38 pm
- If a player who has grown up playing basketball usually needs 1,500-2,000 minutes to adjust to the NBA…doesn’t it seem logical that it would take Sene a signfiicantly larger amount of minutes to adjust??
…also, before anyone says it…I truly do not believe that the NBDL is a tool that can be used to make a player better. To rely on the NBDL would now be requiring TWO seperate items that have never happend to happen with Sene:
- A successful NBA player, who never played basketball just two years before he was drafted
AND
- A successful NBA player learning the NBA game playing with scrubs in the NBDL
March 21st, 2007 at 12:43 pm
I would’ve done this trade if I were the Sonics:
Philadelphia traded the rights to Thabo Sefolosha to Chicago for the rights to Rodney Carney, a second-round pick in 2007 (New York’s) and $1 million.
March 21st, 2007 at 12:43 pm
Sene likely to take 3-5 years to develop, though there is a chance he could click in early at least on rebounding and blocks.
March 21st, 2007 at 12:59 pm
Sefolsha 2/3 SG / 1/3rd SF but another comparison with Gelabale: Sefolsha small edges on pts and rebs per 48, double the assists and steals but double the turnovers. He has a 3 pt shot already.
March 21st, 2007 at 1:05 pm
Carney shooting fine but losing his matchup because of weaker rebounding, assists and slightly below average defense so far. But Philly is probably happy with his start and he will probably prove at least a decent pro with a moderate chance to be more than that.
March 21st, 2007 at 1:07 pm
I don’t buy the ‘2000 minutes minimum’ stuff either.
Reece Gaines flashed out of the league in 600 minutes.
Ndubi Ebi got less then 100
Marcus Haislip 800
Ryan Humphrey 770
I’m not trying to say Sene is already a bust or compares to any of these guys, just that NBA teams often know long before even approaching 2000 minutes whether someone has a future in the league.
The problem that I and just about every other rational person has with Sene is that you absolutely cannot adequately develop three young centers all at the same time. If you want to claim that Petro can be a power forwrd, fine, you now have three young PF’s that you can’t develop correctly. The pick fit perfectly in that you have a team, a coach, a front office, and quite frankly, an entire organization that right now, are all a mess.
March 21st, 2007 at 1:08 pm
Gelabale seems roughly halfway between Balkman and Sefolsha with neither of their strengths so far. Which direction does he excel in from here?
March 21st, 2007 at 1:14 pm
- Well said drrew. I’ve stated a few times that even though I think that Sene will probably bust no-matter-waht…the chances of him succeeding went down about 500xs when the Sonics drafted him.
Perhaps in say Utah where it was just him learning the game he would’ve made an impact.
- Of course, now someone is going to say it isn’t a big deal because we will trade one of the other guys next year. Well that doesn’t make up for what is essentially a wasted year (remember he has regressed apparently) and I doubt we will get full value for whomever we trade. So basically we are FORCED to make a trade because of the roster situation…forced trades are never good.
March 21st, 2007 at 1:14 pm
Next season depth chart
C Collison, Swift, Sene
PF Wilcox, Petro, Brown or draft pick?
I am doubting they will add a veteran unless they carry 7 bigs
March 21st, 2007 at 1:16 pm
“I wouldnt be surprised if some teams offer 1st round picks for Gelabale. Would they say no to 15th or later? Probably. Might they consider at 10-12?”
It was reported last summer, that the New Jersey Nets were really interested in Gelabale and offered one of their 1st round selections(22 or 23).
Though, I doubt that any team would give us a pick in the 10 to 12 range for him, as he’s still too unproven.
“from what I saw this year I believe that Gelabale cannot replace Rashard but I think the team can do well with him at the SF. ”
No, he can’t replace his scoring, cause he’s not that skilled as Shard in that department. Still, he would give us a different look and other guys, especially our post guys, would benefit by his passing abilities. With him starting we’d need a scorer/shooter off the bench though.
“Ray should just shut it down for the year.”
Absolutely.
I’m not sure what good it will do us if he’s still playing 40+ minutes every game.
I really hope he gets that surgery right now, so he’ll be at 100% at the start of training camp this fall.
March 21st, 2007 at 1:17 pm
Another good point TK. Not only are we stacked with young guys…but most people who want us to make a move believe we should bring in an experienced veteran,…
March 21st, 2007 at 1:17 pm
Another good point TK. Not only are we stacked with young guys…but most people who want us to make a move believe we should bring in an experienced veteran,…
March 21st, 2007 at 1:18 pm
If they carry 14 the full year they could. They didnt carry 14 the whole way this year. Will they next year? Maybe because of the 3 draft picks, Swift uncertainty, etc.
March 21st, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Still seems more likely to be veteran cheap journeyman big than vet above average.on pay and performance. Maybe they will make a late move (at either level) based on how Swift looks in October.
March 21st, 2007 at 1:35 pm
I’m in Mo’s corner. You all know that.
You say he can’t play organized hoops at any level but he was way, way better during summer league ball than either Robert or Johan in their first year. His NBDL stats he averaged 9.5 points and 7.7 rebounds in 20 minutes for a team that had the best record in their league. His very first oraganized summer league game he had something along the lines of 6 blocks in his first 8 minutes and for his limited NBA career he has a positive +/- rating while in the game.
I don’t see any argument to support AK on this one other than he didn’t like the pick when it was made. Any draft pick can be a bust but right now there is no reason to think that Mo can’t become a good player. The guy has all the tools. I’ve watched him practice, I’ve talked to the guys he played against. I saw PJ Carlisimo’s jaw drop the first time he saw him play.
They need to make a decision with their centers. One interesting note is that during a the last game there was a lot of talk about a players third year being a breakout year, they expected it with Robert, got it with Collison, and could expect it with Petro. If you really believe in that then perhaps you keep Johan on the roster to see what he produces and try to trade him at the deadline next year.
Personally I keep Swifty and Mo out of the three. My strongest preference is to trade Weezy and bring in a vet to back those young guys up.
March 21st, 2007 at 1:41 pm
If Sene is a bust, Pendergraft (i think that is how to spell his name), Hill and Sund should have been fired in December. If they think he is not a bust, then they should play him.
Maybe i give to much credit, but i would think Sonic management has considered the issue of 3 development prospects and has a plan. I am probably wrong.
March 21st, 2007 at 1:42 pm
“Anyway, Steve, Gelabale doesn’t possess the same level of ball-handling and playmaking skills as Brent Barry. ”
Thus the disclaimer “kind of” in my statement. I actually think they’re somewhat similar players in that they don’t look for their own offense first, are fairly capable ballhandlers and are deceptively athletic. Give Gelabale as much time in the legaue as Brent and let’s see what happens.
“I don’t buy the ‘2000 minutes minimum’ stuff either.
Reece Gaines flashed out of the league in 600 minutes.
Ndubi Ebi got less then 100
Marcus Haislip 800
Ryan Humphrey 770
I’m not trying to say Sene is already a bust or compares to any of these guys, just that NBA teams often know long before even approaching 2000 minutes whether someone has a future in the league. ”
Ebi is the only one of those guys who even remotely compares to Sene IMO in terms of experience.
Haislip: DOB 12/22/80 with 3 yrs college experience
Humphrey: DOB 7/24/79, 5 years college @ Notre Dame
Gaines: DOB 1/7/81, 4 years college @ Louisville
Ebi: DOB 6/18/84, no college
Sene: DOB 5/12/86, no college
Considering the college experience Haislip, Humphrey and Gaines had makes their evaluation totally different than a guy like Mo … Humphrey was a 6′7 undersized PF who was a 5th year senior when he was drafted, Gaines was a tweener too … not an 18 year old kid. Ebi is the textbook definition of how not to develop a 18-19 year old player.
The 2000 minutes figure Scott referenced isn’t a hard and fast rule for everyone, but I’d certainly use something like it when evaluating rookies under age 20.
March 21st, 2007 at 2:07 pm
Getting Sene 200 minutes the rest of the way would seem worth it and at no cost compared to doing it next fall- unless it weakens his trade value.
March 21st, 2007 at 2:18 pm
- Again…my biggest concern is that he won’t get enough minutes to develop. I think that the chances of him being successful (by the end of his rookie contract) at his current rate are about 5% good / 95% bad.
If he was getting 15 mpg my projections would increase to about 25% / 75% bad.
Its all about who we have on the team…our team is not composed in a way that allows for the guys to develop in the best way possible.
March 21st, 2007 at 2:21 pm
I completely agree with that TK…Sene and Petro should honestly get 20-25mpg from here on out…
March 21st, 2007 at 2:31 pm
Considering that Wilkins is starting for Ray tonight, that bodes poorly for Hill doing anything different with the line-up tonight. In fact, I expect to see the silly Ridnour/Watson backcourt before I see Gelabale out there.
The one glimmer of hope is that the Sonics appeared to be purposely testing out the low post game of Wicox (mostly) and Collison (some) against Portland. While I would prefer to see Sene, it is reasonable to give Wilcox multiple post-ups.
March 21st, 2007 at 2:37 pm
This is a time where a recent report on how Mo looks in practice from an independent source could help. I get the impression Hill isnt impressed but the win now factor was already been well noted so I dont think his expressed view is enough to settle it.
March 21st, 2007 at 2:38 pm
Right on McCoy.
March 21st, 2007 at 2:44 pm
Of course the practice look is still a vastly different test than the real thing but just looking for anything recent against Nba players. Are hands, footwork, defensive stoutness and rotations improving or still all over the place?
March 21st, 2007 at 3:12 pm
“While I would prefer to see Sene, it is reasonable to give Wilcox multiple post-ups. ”
Agreed. No reason CW shouldn’t get 12-15 FGA with Ray out.
March 21st, 2007 at 3:24 pm
The Hollinger power rankings have us ranked 14th in the league…If we could just luck out and get a decent pick and make one or two savvy moves it really seems like we could improve in a hurry…
Sucks that the general population thinks that we are a complete train wreck…
March 21st, 2007 at 3:34 pm
Myk - I agree. We are pretty close to being a good team. That is why it is imperative that we lose as many games as possible. That draft pick, whether used or traded, could be all the difference to getting a solid scorer off the bench.
March 21st, 2007 at 5:32 pm
Hollinger ranking is fairly heavily influenced by last 10 games and several of the western conference teams ahead of us have been weak in that stretch and we have been a little better than them by the stats and in my view overrewarded for that. For the season it is hard to say we are better than the Lakers, Warriors and Nets who playoff seeded. It is a purely numbers driven temporary high:Stein’s subjective ranking of 26th is close to the actual W-L. Underlying power is probably higher than that but not 14th- for season to date.
March 21st, 2007 at 5:41 pm
Having big wins against Portland and Sacramento improved point differential to +1 during last 10 games even though we are 4-6 in that stretch.
But I agree with teams bunched up tightly moving from 25th to 15th may only take 1 or 2 improvements.
March 21st, 2007 at 6:37 pm
Is Gelabale the savior of this team? I like the guy. I’m happy with him….but why are people acting like its a complete sham he isn’t getting minutes. Is he really that good? Some people want him to play PG? Why? Are you serious?
March 21st, 2007 at 7:50 pm
Gelabale is the 9th man by minutes, a competent rookie.
Next year he will probably be 8-10th, but could be 7th or possibly even 5th. Phase 1 fairly successful, phase 2 on its way.
March 21st, 2007 at 8:53 pm
- I think the reason the Sonics perform so well in the Hollinger rankings is their low pt differential…
- As for Gelabale…he isn’t the savior for the team…but he is our young player and we really need to you know actually develop these players to ever be successful