Sonics Vs. Sixers Game Thread
Posted on Monday, December 31st, 2007 at 2:12 pm by Xteve
Pelton’s Place link not up yet but I’ll put it in the comments when Kev gets it up.
The uh, article, that is … not … never mind.
Bye 2007.
From facing the crappiest team in the West it’s now time to face the crappiest team in the East … the Sixers boast a passel of some of the most overpaid role players in recent memory. Frighteningly many of them got their current contracts after their turns as Sonics….
So Kevin Ollie’s contract is finally up? That makes me feel old more so than the fact 2007 flew by so fast. I remember when he signed that free agent deal after his Sonic tenure and the collective faithful laughed their cyberasses off that anyone would give a 5-year free agent contract to the guy who’s picture is in Webster under the word “journeyman.”
Then there’s the Nutcracker, aka Reggie Evans, aka Michael “The Animal” Smith with a yen to grab your BVDs … who managed to parlay his one useful NBA skill into a long-term deal with the Nuggets, who liked his production so much that they traded him after 96 games. And he’s got two more years left after this one. Ha cha cha cha cha.
We should pound Philly into the ground tonight, here’s hoping it happens.
Guys to watch: Sam Dalembert, Andre Miller … I guarantee one of those two will be traded by February.
Also Gordon Giricek who along with a protected future first round pick was traded to Philly for Kyle Korver, who was probably Philly’s best outside shooter.
Bizarre Sonic/76ers Facts: Each team has drafted a big white redhead center in the lottery. Which guy has more successful to date for the team that drafted them, Shawn Bradley or Robert Swift? Yikes …
All right, that’s it. I’m off to Tat’s Deli for a Philly cheesesteak for lunch. If you live in the area or are down in Pioneer Square for a Hawks game please give these guys your business, they rock.
“Sautee those onions, baby
Grill up the meat
Cheese wiz or provolone
Turn up the heat
A soft or hard roll and you’re ready to eat a Philly Cheesesteak
Philly Cheesesteak”
-Skip Denenberg, “The Cheesesteak Song”
December 31st, 2007 at 2:25 pm
Philly is the third straight opponent that the Sonics will face that will be playing the second game of a back-to-back. Thank you schedulers for this holiday gift.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:34 pm
This short article shows Sonics in bottom 10 at guarding SG,SF and C and not in top 10 anywhere else (but at least not bottom 10 so some credit to those guys)
http://www.nbastuffer.com/content/view/36/64/
Philly will test the wing defense. Maybe the Center D too.
Portland in top 10 at SF,PF, C and get Oden next season. That is a defensive base from which great things can happen- with an all-around star (Roy), 3 pt shooters and a decent Pg cast.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:57 pm
Interesting find Crow. How smart is San Antonio? The only position for which they are not a top-ten team in terms of defending is the SF position, which is probably the weakest position in the Western Conference offensively (only Carmelo and Josh Howard are dominant offensive players at that position. Though the chart seems to confirm that Denver and Dallas may be the two teams that matchup best with the Spurs).
December 31st, 2007 at 3:08 pm
Philly the crapiest in the East? Knicks, Bobcats, Heat anyone? It’s too bad they got rid of Korver, he has a deadly outside shot, what the Sonics got to do is contain Iggy and Miller.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:10 pm
I look forward to spending New Years with the Sonics. When midnight rolls around here in Washington D.C. the game will still be on. I have my party blower and pointy hat, which fits snuggly over my pointy head ready.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:55 pm
Is Durant in the lineup tonight?
December 31st, 2007 at 3:56 pm
“Portland in top 10 at SF,PF, C and get Oden next season. That is a defensive base from which great things can happen- with an all-around star (Roy), 3 pt shooters and a decent Pg cast.” {Crow}
Once Greg Oden is healthy next season, he and Joel Przybilla could possibly form the most defensively stout duo at center in NBA history. With one of those two guys in the game at all times, the Portland Trailblazers should be able to shut down opposing interior players on a regular basis.
That, folks, is how you build a championship ballclub.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:56 pm
Durant and Wilcox both listed as questionable for tonight’s game:
http://www.nba.com/sonics/news/preview071231.html
December 31st, 2007 at 4:05 pm
Also, the list that Crow posted supports my Kevin Durant to Tracy McGrady comparison.
With the Houston Rockets and the Seattle Supersonics both having tremendous difficulty guarding opposing wing players, McGrady (Net +/- Production: -4.8; Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions: 105.5; Net Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions: +6.9; Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed: 47.5%; Net Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed: +2.4%) and Durant (Net +/- Production: -15.1; Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions: 111.7; Net Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions: +11.8; Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed: 51.2%; Net Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed: +7.4%) deserve heaps of the blame for each of their team’s failures thus far this season.
I, however, doubt that this bitter dose of reality will quell the asinine lovefest for Durant.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:18 pm
AK1984 said:
“I, however, doubt that this bitter dose of reality will quell the asinine lovefest for Durant.”
Yeah, and it’s equally doubtful that any future bitter dose of reality will quell your equally asinine obsession with statistics.
People who constantly rely on statistics to make every single point are people who apparently cannot see or learn anything by actually observing the game of basketball, and thus lack common sense and/or basketball knowledge.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:18 pm
It has taken me awhile to understand what Pritchard was doing but I do think he has gotten the big picture design right. Aldridge might look better on his own than he actually fits in with the rest (poor team +/- and poor pairs with Roy and Blake) but maybe they find his spot next year, perhaps as a scoring punch of the 2nd unit.
PG cast may be necessary these days for most teams. At least 2 play, one available for replacing poor play or for particular matchups or team style change or for injuries.
A star PG capable of giving near 35 minutes in certainly nice. Don’t see that emerging in Portland unless it becomes Roy. Don’t see that on horizon here but maybe Presti finds a way for a vet or believes in a draftee. If not, we might see Ridnour/Watson and somebody even West longer. You could rationalize it.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:20 pm
Cheese steak.
Nice sandwich or triple entendre?
You make the call. Or Steve can tell us.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:24 pm
Steve’s graphic from the other day could prompt the question… Better to spank than be spanked?
Or is it?
In basketball? (with the draft implications)
In real life? Depends on the literal or figurative meaning for me.
Maybe I should have passed on these comments but what the heck. It is your fault Steve. (joking)
December 31st, 2007 at 4:26 pm
Could Oden play some PF beside Joel P.?
I’d check it out … in practice, pre-season, easy games next season.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:35 pm
Aldridge some at SF?
If Roy goes even halftime to PG maybe you could do some of these things with Webster backfilling some at SG.
Plenty of options depending on opponent matchup- another Spurs characteristic- plenty of tweeners.
Kobe in LA is one of their better defenders but Lakers as a whole have top 10s at 4 positions. They’ve pulled off the rebuild just barely in time to keep the star. With maybe just enough defense (not as good as Spurs / playoffs will tell if it is enough) and the necessary balance of a strong offense (with enough beyond Kobe in regular season and the playoffs again the ultimate test).
December 31st, 2007 at 4:44 pm
Lakers get a top 10 defense rank at center, #23 in fact. Bynum guards his own man above average and is a good help defender. Brown and Mihm handle the rest of the minutes well enough that you don’t have a problem emerge.
Maybe Swift ends up in a Brown / Mihm role. Or more. Teams need 2-3 centers.
December 31st, 2007 at 5:03 pm
“Could Oden play some PF beside Joel P.?
I’d check it out … in practice, pre-season, easy games next season.” {Crow}
From what I saw of Greg Oden when he played at Ohio State, his skill set lends him to being strictly a center. Unlike Tim Duncan and Hakeem Olajuwon, Oden seemingly lacks the ball-handling skills, court vision, and mid-range jumper to succeed at the elbow or too far out along the baseline.
Instead, Oden — who greatly resembles a young Patrick Ewing — is a true back-to-the-basket pivotman. Oden, therefore, should constantly post up on the low block; that’d allow him back down his man in the paint, so he could score right underneath the basket.
Nonetheless, it’s possible that Oden could eventually develop a varied offensive repertoire in the interior — as did Ewing during the progression of his NBA career with the New York Knicks — which’d theoretically turn him into an unstoppable force.
Although Oden will never dominate inside to the same extent as a prime Shaquille O’Neal or Wilt Chamberlain, he’s still this generation’s best bet for long-lasting stardom, greatness, and success at the center position.
December 31st, 2007 at 5:13 pm
“Aldridge some at SF?” {Crow}
In my opinion, Chris Bosh, Jermaine O’Neal, and LaMarcus Aldridge are strictly power forwards. As face-to-the-basket players who are usually stationed at or around the free-throw line, those three guys lack the ball-handling skills and shooting range to float out beyond the arc and play small forward — unlike truly versatile scorers such as Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki — along with the strength to bang down in the interior like a legitimate center (e.g., Andrew Bynum, Dwight Howard, et al.).
December 31st, 2007 at 5:41 pm
“I, however, doubt that this bitter dose of reality will quell the asinine lovefest for Durant.”
You know, I used to really enjoy the sharp-witted humor that was pretty much a staple in your posts AK. It’s refreshing to get a perspective on basketball that isn’t driven solely by homerism and high expectations. But man, I think you’ve pretty muched p!ssed down the gift horses throat since we were so fortunate enough to recieve the second pick in the draft. Homers are annoying as hell. Haters are the bane of the planet.
If you used the same logic that you did with both Jeff Green and Kevin Durant, but introspectively regarding you own life, I think your forecast would be pretty f’ng dismal; probably not very accurate though.
December 31st, 2007 at 5:48 pm
AK, Dave Berri talks about Durant again and basically agrees with you.
http://tinyurl.com/3e2cty
I have had similar concerns but I’ll admit to plenty of concerns with this team and then am willing to wait longer for Durant to develop and show a strong team impact. Rookies raise hopes and Durant raises hope more than many rookies will or should. Maybe not the way a supreme rookie post man would but even young post men are taking their time to show impact these days- Bosh made playoffs in year 4 but missed a few too many shots. Bynum has stepped up in year 3 regular season but is still a bit over a halftime player and has yet to get serious test in playoffs as a key player. D Howard looks like dynamite in year 4 but a long way to playoffs and lets see how much he wins this time. Okafor has nothing beyond individual stats so far. Neither has Bogut. Milicic hasn’t even have that. The timetable for youngsters to make an impact may have to be adjusted back given their greater youth. James and Wade broke thru clutter early and are the exceptions and had some key veterans that helped. How Durant compares with other near top picks by year 3 or 4 will be interesting.
The link in that article to David Thorpe’s scouting comments on rookies including KD and JG was a new one for me.
December 31st, 2007 at 6:09 pm
Times blog:
“I’d call them both doubtful,” Carlesimo continued. “It’s totally going to be [up to] them. Just looking at Kevin catching the ball today and looking at Weezy doing nothing, to me they’ve got to have definite improvement to feel good. In my opinion, if they were going to go, they would have been a little bit perkier this morning - catching the ball OK and Weezy running around jumping or something like that. I didn’t see that.”
December 31st, 2007 at 6:43 pm
“I, however, doubt that this bitter dose of reality will quell the asinine lovefest for Durant.”
You can find a reason to criticize anybody, you can make stats say what you want to say. The reality is there shouldn’t even be another rookie in the ROY running. While I agree that his rebounding ability could use some work, he is a Frosh…let me repeat that HE IS A FROSH…and a 19 year old at that…scoring almost 20 ppg. This kid has worked hard his whole life and EARNED his spot in the show, no reason that won’t continue. He’s shown his ability to drive and slash, shoot, take to the rim OVER a defender bigger than himself, hit game winning shots, and scored 35 in a ballgame twice this season. He is starting to play the passing lanes on defense with his length and create points off those steals….all of this and such a young age and we got critics?! Guess that says it all.
December 31st, 2007 at 6:51 pm
Economics guru Dave Berri believes the ROY award is too biased towards scorers and would give this year’s award, if the season were to end today, to Al Horford.
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/12/31/should-the-rookie-of-the-year-help-his-team-win-more-games/#more-687
I agree with Berri that the ROY award is too biased towards players that score the ball. However, I don’t agree with Berri about Horford being this year’s ROY. The statistical model for which he bases his conclusion would have given last year’s ROY award to Rajon Rondo, not Brandon Roy.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:23 pm
Anybody has status on Durant. Is he playing or not? He is the only reason I follow Sonic’s games this season.
Anyone!!!!!!
December 31st, 2007 at 7:30 pm
You can find and report stats to say a lot things but there are responsible limits.
You can’t make your shooting stats game to game say much other than what they say.
Durant has shot 50% or better FG% 30% of the time and under that 70% of the time.
He hit over 50% 4 of last 10 games so that is some improvement.
He will get to over 50% 50-60% of the time soon, probably. Allen did it 50% of time last year and that seemed a little light for a player of his stature and might have contributed to him getting shipped off. Lewis did it 60%.
When Durant is doing it 30% of the time it is fair to mention that along with the positives. When he nearly or fully doubles that level of performance I’ll praise the consistency of his shooting.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:32 pm
One player that I’m going to watch closely in this game is Rodney Carney. He was the guy, other than Ronnie Brewer, that I wanted the Sonics to draft the year they got Sene. Haven’t really heard much from him, maybe because he hasn’t gotten a lot of playing time. I have a feeling he isn’t anything special though.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:34 pm
They can give the Rookie of the Year Award to Dave Freaking Berri for all I care - the bottom line is that while a handful of the players in this year’s class will have nice, long, productive careers - the story of this draft will always be about whether Oden and Durant fulfill their promise, become Hall of Fame greats, and win championships.
Everything else - PER, plus/minus, Win Score per 48 Minutes, or whatever, is all so much statistical masturbation…and I’d expect nothing less from an “economics guru.”
December 31st, 2007 at 7:37 pm
How about if instead of awarding a Rookie of the Year Award, they just poll the NBA’s 30 GM’s and ask them who’d they most like to have on their team: Durant, Yi, or Horford.
I’m guessing the stat for that one would be Durant +30.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Right now Durant is a scorer, getting nearer to average on efficiency overall but pretty streaky with some big games and a lot of inefficient shooting games. You can get away with being streaky easier when you are a role player but being streaky is not a good characteristic for a #1 guy. He will surely improve on this and many things but expectations of how much, how fast will vary and the actual progess remains to be deliverd and seen.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:42 pm
Allen did drop on shooting consistency last year. In 05-06 he shot over 50% FG almost 70% of the time. That is star #1 level.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:47 pm
Crow, I think 45%, rather than 50%, may be a more accurate indicator of efficiency for a player such as Ray Allen because his offense is so perimeter-oriented, he was the Supes’ #1 scoring option, and he lacked a #2 scoring option for twenty-one games last season. 50% shooting may work as an appropriate indicator of shooting efficiency for Durant since he does not shoot as many threes as Allen did last year, though Durant faces a similar burden of being the #1 scoring option without a #2 option.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:49 pm
This is a joke. How can you compare Ray Allen’s prime with Kevin Durants rookie year. That just doesn’t make any sense.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:50 pm
55% percent may be the best indicator of efficiency for players that rely on “inside” scoring for most of their offense. 50% for players that rely equally for the most part on inside and perimeter scoring.
December 31st, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Wilcox and Durant out of line up tonight!! Ah, Durant is the only goodie I want to see. Ok I am out Happy new year…….
December 31st, 2007 at 8:04 pm
I am not expecting Durant’s rookie year to be at Allen’s peak on consistency. I am noting were he is now and the distance he has to travel to get to same point over time. Listening to some you’d think he was closer to being there already than he is.
Alex the 50% I used was eFG% accounting for 3s. Using 45% would be more forgiving for everyone and might be fine for measuring ok shooting games. I guess I was looking at strong shooting games.
Durant would be taken over any rookie but Oden by GMs in a poll and he was in reality.
Championships are a pretty good ultimate standard but takes an adequate supporting team and not all greats have that or deliver what the team needs to achieve that together. How many Durant gets will be a good measure.
Durant has a good probability to be hall of fame. Nearly everyone who averaged 24 pts a game in enough games in career has or probably will when they are eligible. Score between 20-24 it becomes more like 50/50. Team performance matters in some of these close cases. Some “scorers” who dindt have team success don’t make it and maybe some shouldn’t. But I don’t care about HOF given some of their clear error snubs.
December 31st, 2007 at 8:07 pm
Cool, I didn’t realize that your analysis used the effective field goal percentage of fifty percent, as opposed to the actual field goal percentage. It is extremely clear that the 2005-2006 Ray Allen was better than the 2006-2007 Ray Allen.
December 31st, 2007 at 8:15 pm
Totally off subject, but I nominate these two team names as the dumbest team names ever:
The Fort Wayne Mad Ants
and
The Colorado 14ers
December 31st, 2007 at 8:17 pm
A couple of James Worthy style dunks for Green - nice!
December 31st, 2007 at 8:41 pm
isn’t there a game going on? or is this just a stathead versus scouting poo flinging contest?
either way, green already has 3 assists in 10 mins—point forward anyone?
December 31st, 2007 at 8:49 pm
Yeah Alex I should have clarified that it was eFG% initially. But we are on the same page now.
As you say the standard would be different for evaluating “good” shooting by a big.
December 31st, 2007 at 8:50 pm
watson playing well tonite, under control, no stupid shots (except one). damien is horrible again. i think he’s starting to annoy PJ bigtime. he quickly pulled him from the game tonite, he’s a very selfish offensive player and slow thinking. IMO only a 12th man calibre.
love the James Worthy comparison of Green, if only he could develop Worthy’s 15 foot jumper.
Wally to heat up and win us the game in the 2nd half
December 31st, 2007 at 9:18 pm
Yeah AK you are probably right on Aldridge and Oden sticking to their traditional positions with little if any position shifting. I think there is no cost asking and little to checking it a bit just to know rather than guess not and maybe miss something. But many stretches are probably not wise to do so in a major way.
Sonics will find out about position for Durant , Green, West. They already know and have accepted Collison as largely a center after that idea got lots of criticism in its early stages. Some position shifts work. Thomas shifted to center during his career. Rasheed moved to center fulltime essentially this year. Some 4s can slide to 3 but probably more SFs slide to PF. Radmanovic did the later for a time with the right rest of cast and offensive system. detlef moved from PF to SF with Sonics. Each case is different based on player’s skills and offensive system.
December 31st, 2007 at 9:32 pm
is durant injured or something?
he doesn’t have a min played yet in the boxscore
December 31st, 2007 at 9:33 pm
I miss Durant.
December 31st, 2007 at 9:34 pm
It’s kind of nice having an unselfish player at that SF position…also not bad of a finisher too.
December 31st, 2007 at 9:56 pm
In other news after the Korver trade tonight Brewer plays season lowest minutes, 40% less than his average and it looks like most went to Korver.
Team defense (pts per 100 possessions) with Brewer on court mark is among the 50 worst for players in league playing modest or bigger minutes along with Okur (and just barely Boozer). One of the first two will probably start feeling more of the heat from Sloan now that Giricek is gone and Kirilenko is “rehabilitated”.
For Sonics Durant, Green, Collison and Wilkins make that list too right now. But some teams are worse off. NY has 7 on the worst team defense 50.
Green nice shooting and passing but team lowest on +/- tonight. Its been one of the lowest all season but it will only change with time and learning.
December 31st, 2007 at 9:58 pm
See where Petro just ran to, catch and shoot, I want Green going there and working from that weak side elbow
December 31st, 2007 at 10:14 pm
could this be wilkens last game in the playing rotation? surely just 12 mins on such a depleted roster is evidence his time is up. once durant is back, i think bye bye damien, back to 11th man. move gelly ahead of him too.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:24 pm
Green by far the better player tonight on individual stats.
For season team offense and defense almost identical and thus team +/- close to same for Wilkins and Green, shots per minute almost identical, TS% about the same, Wilkins 75% higher on assist rate and about 40% lower on turnovers, but quality perceptions lean Green’s way. Certainly potential is on his side.
The die was already cast really but games like this give some very positive feedback.
Still starting with the best players against a weak team playing SF he ends up with team lowest +/-. Just odd that it keeps happening when a lot looks good. His team +/- impact will be a key measure on his improvement in the coming months.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:25 pm
“AK1984 said:
“I, however, doubt that this bitter dose of reality will quell the asinine lovefest for Durant.”
Yeah, and it’s equally doubtful that any future bitter dose of reality will quell your equally asinine obsession with statistics.
People who constantly rely on statistics to make every single point are people who apparently cannot see or learn anything by actually observing the game of basketball, and thus lack common sense and/or basketball knowledge. ”
Word, Courtsense. No fucking shit, and I completely agree.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:29 pm
Part of Green’s +/- is due to the fact that his assignment defensively was Andre Igoudala. AI’s impressive offensive performance is surprising considering that is not a particularly strong go-to-guy as he seems to be the Sixers’ third option down the stretch (behind Williams and Miller). Either Green didn’t play well defensively or Igoudala had one of those nights. Perhaps it was a combination of the bad defense from Green and AI getting hot.
Notwithstanding his defense (or lack thereof), Green was good offensively. The shot of his that impressed me most was the three pointer. If he’s the Sonics SF of the future, perhaps Caron Butler is the guy he will want to emulate.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:37 pm
To be fair Green’s +/- was quite positive though middle of the pack for the team against Minny.
I’ll be interested in his adjusted +/- when that comes out later this spring.
C Butler would be a great standard to follow, if it happens / fits him.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:50 pm
For season Green’s 1 on 1 SF defense is exceptional. And now I see in general the team +/- is good +5 when he is at SF compared to -15 at PF. Wilkins is below average at SF.
So the case is certainly closed on Wilkins as starting SF.
Green taking that SF spot long-term certainly looks right better now than Green off the bench at PF from team numbers though about even lookng at 1 on 1 matchup results. Green at backup PF is worse on team numbers than Wilkins at starting SF (and equal to Wikins at SG). Maybe that changes but the team numbers say Green should play SF right now.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:55 pm
So my early comparison of Wilkins / Green was overall, not by position. The position data gives an entirely different impression. Folks sometimes say position doesn’t matter. I’d say in this case it does.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:58 pm
Playing Green at SF makes sense defensively, especially in the Western Conference. Besides Howard and Anthony, there are no really strong players at that position that can take you one-on-one.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:17 pm
Alex your observations about Green on Iggy prompts me to note that Iggy is to the SG end of the SF spectrum and that might explain why Green’s D wasnt as good tonight as against other SFs. Maybe he is better defending tall SFs? Worth watching that. And your comment about playing SFs in the west also rings true. They are certainly easier than starting PFs in the west. Not sure how it compares to backup PFs in general or in the west but it might be that starting SFs in general are no harder than backup PFs. But perhaps for tough starting SF matchups (SG like if that is the problem area) ideally you’d want another option than Green and could shift his time in the rotation accordingly, more to PF if that matchup is any better. Maybe Gelabale gets some burn in those situations for D. When opponent SF is SG like and PF is very strong and PF like Green might not be exactly what you at eiother spot. Or maybe he grows into handling one type better or both. What is the general size / style trend at those spots especially in west? I haven’t studied that closely enough.
January 1st, 2008 at 12:09 am
O, o death
O, woahw death
Can you spare me over to another year
January 1st, 2008 at 12:14 am
good for the Jazz
January 1st, 2008 at 12:45 am
Crow–
That link on the 5:48 pm post seems like oversimplification to me. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that we’d win more games if Ray Allen was on our team. Switch Ray Allen with KD at the SG position and the team wins 33 games. Wow, rocket science.
First of all, I don’t really want to win 31-33 games again. Second, part of the allure of KD is his potential and versatility. Plus, the guy is a rookie. Compare Allen’s rookie season to KD’s; that’s something I’d read. Take a look back at the rookie stats of other 19-year-olds to come into the league, and I think that KD is ahead of the game.
Bloggers like the writer of that link need to remember that some players–even future Hall of Famers like Gary Payton–have had lousy rookie years. KD’s rookie year will absolutely smoke Gary Payton’s by the end of the year IMO, but, GP had a better supporting cast.
———————————————————-
Did anyone see the play when Watson went careening into the lane and jumped up and tried to kick the ball back out to Wally…only to have the ball picked off (I believe by Iguadala) and taken full court for a layin? Pretty obvious that Watson played for someone other than John Wooden at UCLA…
Those are the kinds of plays that are so freakin’ annoying…when our 3-5 year players play like rookies. I wish Watson would just try to show us the defense that he brought in to Seattle for and keep it simple at the offensive end. He stroked a few nice threes, but, that one play was a real dagger.
January 1st, 2008 at 1:02 am
James B. said:
“Pretty obvious that Watson played for someone other than John Wooden at UCLA…”
Good line JB…my pet peeve when it comes to Watson is his complete lack of common sense in floor spacing - he always seems to be running his man into the ballhandler or shooter . He’ll pass the ball to the top or the wing, and then stand a few feet away while his teammate struggles to find space to create against their own defender and Earl’s defender. Even when it’s obvious that Earl’s man is cheating off to deny the dribble or the shot of a teammate, he’ll still stand right there watching.
January 1st, 2008 at 1:19 am
Hey, Alex and Crow: if you watched the game, you no doubt noticed that Igoudala scored 3 straight baskets (including a 3) against Wilkins late in the 3rd, when Green was on the bench, and another against Wally (also a 3). Plus a couple FT’s at the end of the game. So of Igoudala’s 25, no more than 15 came against Green.
First of all, Igoudala is a helluva player. Second, Jeff Green did a helluva job on him, especially early, holding him to a 1-7 start from the field. Third, you don’t need stats to see that Jeff Green is a helluva defensive player, especially for a rookie; I won’t be surprised if he makes an All-Defensive team early in his career. JG also did a fine job defensively in a brief stint against Andre Miller midway through the 4th.
Call me a homer or whatever, but Green is a very nice player. If you squint a little bit, you can see what Presti was thinking in terms of Green being the ideal complement to Durant for the future.
January 1st, 2008 at 1:21 am
I did watch the game courtsense and I have different viewpoint about
January 1st, 2008 at 1:30 am
…Green’s defensive performance against Igoudala. AI is a decent offensive third-option, probably a stretch as a #2 option offensively, but his primary talent comes from his non-scoring intangibles (passing, rebounding, and defense). Green had the worst +/- on the team at -9 and I don’t believe it was just his continued bad luck (Damien may have been doing other things except for scoring as he had the best +/- on the team). You asked earlier who thirty scouts would choose between Durant, Horford, and Yi. I agree with you that all thirty would choose Durant in a heartbeat. However, if the question posed to these thirty scouts is Yi, Green, or Williams, I’m not sure if Green wins. A big man that can shoot a 18-20 foot jump shot is just as artistic as a big man who can make Youtube dunks in my opinion.
January 1st, 2008 at 2:28 am
Interesting post, Alex - especially your comment about asking GM’s to choose between Yi, Green, and Williams. You could be right there. Many teams would probably opt for the 7-footers. Now ask yourself this: who would the GM’s with the most recent Championship rings take? Notwithstanding the current makeup of their rosters, just philosophically, who would Popovich take? Probably Green. Who would Joe Dumars take? Probably Green. Who would Pat Riley take? Probably Green. I think that’s where Presti is coming from, and what he’s trying to emulate.
But your assertion that Igoudala is “a decent 3rd option, and probably a stretch as a #2 option” was kinda bizarre, IMHO. This is a guy who averages 19 pts., 6 rebs, 5 assists, and 2 steals a game at the most competitive position in the NBA. Yeah, Philly sucks - but not because of Igoudala. They’ve got nothing in the front court; Dalembert is a defensive center with no real post game. Their PFs suck, and their SF is a youngster. Their PG is a playmaker, not a primary scorer - so Igoudala is their #1 option all the way. On a very good team, he’s probably the 2nd option. The only way he’d be a 3rd option would be for a great, Finals-type team.
I also think Igoudala is a far better all-around player than either Rashard or Ray.
January 1st, 2008 at 4:31 am
“AI is a decent offensive third-option, probably a stretch as a #2 option offensively, but his primary talent comes from his non-scoring intangibles”
No way. This guy is a GOOD #2. He’s only 23 and has improved every aspect of his game every year, recently adding a consistent jumper. The only major flaw I see in his game is he’s not that great of a three point threat. Still though, you are overlooking how good he really is.
January 1st, 2008 at 5:51 am
Too many people on this forum rely on stats. I evaluate players based on performance. Jeff Green played very good defense tonight (in my opinion). I would just like to say that Iguodala hit some very difficult shots over Jeff Green. Most of the times when AI was shooting, JG had a hand in his face. Sometimes the ball just happens to go in. It doesn’t matter if JG had the lowest +/-. He was clearly the best Sonic player who checked in the game tonight. If +/- means everything, then we need to start benching JG and start Gelebale.
January 1st, 2008 at 7:56 am
It makes me laugh whenever some dumbass homer compares Jeff Green to Scottie Pippen, for the only player in the NBA nowadays who’s even close to reaching Pippen’s all-around production is Andre Iguodala.
Yet, even if the Seattle Supersonics somehow acquired Iguodala, he couldn’t be the Pippen to Kevin Durant’s Michael Jordan—which is because Durant couldn’t hold Jordan’s fucking jock strap!
Although I don’t downright hate Durant, it should be known the beginning that he’s not a championship caliber player in my mind. Players like Durant — such as George Gervin and Tracy McGrady — don’t have the complete games that are possessed by true franchise cornerstones.
Y’all will soon realize the fact Durant is just an flawed star — as is Carmelo Anthony, who’s his closest statistical comparison — rather than an upper-tier superstar, however, so I’ll lay off of the so-called savior in the meantime. Hell, it’s a tough pill to swallow by anyone.
January 1st, 2008 at 9:13 am
James B. I agree with you that the Berri article is an oversimplification and does put Durant in a negative early light that will probably change quite a bit. But his highlighting of the what have you done so far vs what will you do still seems like a somewhat necessary counterbalance to all praise. The believers think the cautious are excessive or whack, the cautious think the believers are ahead of themselves and ignoring what is inconvenient to see in the performance so far. Believe that you are right either way if you want, I prefer trying to include recognition of both views and let Durant tip the balance one way or the other with his play over time.
How often did Ray Allen shoot 50+% eFG his rookie season? 55% of the time compared to Durant’s 30% so far. But not everyone is a Ray Allen or Ray Allen ready from git go. Hopefully and probably Durant’s will improve. How much remains an open question.
Heavy stat usage may seem overkill to some and it can be at times and it isn’t the only word or always perfectly clear. But I and others will sometimes push back when its value gets diminished to nothing (the “you can make stats say anything” critique). The search for clues in the stats (which represent what happened in the real game) looking for an edge. an insight that eyes might not fully capture right away all the time has been a big part of what I felt was missing in mainstream media and most boards. It has generally been accepted or tolerated here and I appreciate and like that. I probably won’t defend its place again. I understand others can take a differnt view and prefer a different balance. That’s normal diversity. There is plenty of diversity here and that is good. When the stats guys go overboard there are those who can check them with visual evidence and reason or other stats. When comments and opinions come up and stats shed additional or different light on the topic that seems worthwhile too. To give folks a buffet of things to consider and accept or reject as they will.
January 1st, 2008 at 9:21 am
People who lead with statistics to make most of their points are people who happen to have a style of conversation. They can see or learn observing the game of basketball in the same range as those who don’t have that conversation style. They just add stats more heavily to that visual knowledge than others.
January 1st, 2008 at 9:55 am
By the stats Iggy is a below average shooter not on par with Ray & Rashard and just an average efficency scorer. He might (and did) make a fine #2 but he was made a not very impressive #1 so far and is part of the reason Philly is struggling as much as anything else. His rebounding is not that special for a starting SF. SFs have outrebounded him slightly in the past and this season his rebounding edge is just 1 defensive rebound. He is a fairly poor offensive rebounder with a rate 1/3rd less than Radmanovic and only 1/3rd period of Matt Harpring’s rate. His assists were strong but partly due to Philly’s lack on enough passing from elsewhere- bottom 10 for last several years and they’ve gone down alongside Miller.
Do I think Iggy will get Philly to playoff series wins anytime soon with him as #1? Nope. Do you? By PER he is the 56th best player. That is not a strong winning #1 (the highest toughest standard but that is his role and expectation). He shows it visually most nights. With average sets of scoring possessions vs misses and high turnovers (bottom third among significant minute players). He hits 41% eFG on jumpers and takes jumpers 74% of the time.
Durant scoring rate already higher, TS% only trails by a bit. Rebounds trail by 1 per 48, assists are only 1/2 though and turnovers are higher. He takes 75% jumpers and is currently hitting 39% eFG.
Will Durant be better than Iggy overall? Probably. He better me. Because Iggy isnt enough for a #1 to win consistently and big .
January 1st, 2008 at 9:57 am
(Durant’s offensive rebounding currently 1/3 below Iggy’s rate.)
January 1st, 2008 at 10:01 am
Iggy 4th worst team +/-. Durant would be worst if not for Swift’s short minutes rating.
Do these stats matter? Not particularly for Durant in year 1. But if he is still a lot like Iggy in year 4 that would be a problem.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:03 am
Does Iggy get near the max or a few million less or traded? If I were new GM I’d all every team and see what I could get from him. I wouldnt give him the max. I doubt I’d start him at over $9 million.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:04 am
should be … I’d “call” every team…
January 1st, 2008 at 10:51 am
Crow Says:
“People who lead with statistics to make most of their points are people who happen to have a style of conversation. They can see or learn observing the game of basketball in the same range as those who don’t have that conversation style. They just add stats more heavily to that visual knowledge than others.”
Touche, Crow!
My New Year’s Resolution is to try to better understand the mindset of the stat guys here…so I will say that while stats frequently provide useful insights, I’m just not comfortable using them all the time. But for those who are, go for it.
January 1st, 2008 at 11:52 am
Everyone can do what they want, listen to what they want. I just had to shoot a few arrows back.
I know the stat emphasis can get heavy. usually heavy compared to almost anywhere else. I understand it can seem too much.
Maybe I back off some but we’ll see.
January 1st, 2008 at 1:12 pm
skhith,
Point forwards are a good thing to me.
In last 10 games Green’s assist rate per48 has increased close to 100% over previous.
During that time 4 Sonics (Durant, Green, Wilikins and Gelabale) have averaged 4+ assists per 48 in addition to the 3 PGs. Previously Gelabale and Wilkins were real close.
This is promising.
(P.S. yesterday’s debate ran into the game but didnt interfere with following it.)
January 1st, 2008 at 1:17 pm
“The leaguewide consensus on both Andres — Miller and Andre Iguodala — is that both players should be cast as no more than the third- or fourth-best player on the team. ‘Iguodala is a No. 3 and Miller is a No. 4 or 5,’ insists one West exec.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-071222-23
I agree with Igoudala being a very good #3 but disagree about Miller being a #4 or #5. Miller is Philadelphia’s leader and should be able to make the playoffs as a late seed.
I actually don’t think Poppovich would take Green. He would want another player that can spot up at the three-point line. If he couldn’t have that player, I’m guessing he would take Sean Williams. Wouldn’t you want the next Marcus Camby?
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:27 pm
“I actually don’t think Poppovich would take Green. He would want another player that can spot up at the three-point line. If he couldn’t have that player, I’m guessing he would take Sean Williams. Wouldn’t you want the next Marcus Camby?”
Nobody was touching Williams with a 10 foot poll due to off court issues. How soon people forget, once a player produces on the court.
“Too many people on this forum rely on stats.”
I agree. Its almost like they never played the game. A lot of things aren’t reflected by numbers. Is Shaun Alexander one of the best football players? His numbers might say so….but my eyes/brain tell me different.
January 4th, 2008 at 11:48 am
Shot most every day growing up as a kid and played small games with friends & neighbors. In college and for a decade after played pickup, at times 10+ hours a week.
Yeah I played but not at an organized level so I try to avoid pretending to know enough about technical details of why plays work or don’t. I know the ins & outs of basketball stats pretty well. So that is what I mainly contribute.
January 4th, 2008 at 11:59 am
““Too many people on this forum rely on stats.”
I agree. Its almost like they never played the game. A lot of things aren’t reflected by numbers. Is Shaun Alexander one of the best football players? His numbers might say so….but my eyes/brain tell me different. ”
Stats are a different way of describing what we see. To discount them entirely because you don’t understand what they’re saying is as foolish as relying solely on them. Ideally an observer uses a balance of both approaches.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Agreed. General playing instincts combined with an awareness of watching what works and doesn’t in NBA (different than most people’s playing experience) for decades help guide how I look at stats. Perhaps I could do a better job of prefacing stats with game context but I tend to assume most folks have enough and don’t need lots of background explaining of that and I want to get to the piece that folks might not have seen or thought about in stat specific terms but maybe I adjust a bit.
June 24th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Jimmy
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