1/31/07 Box Score: Sonics 101 Cavs 95
Posted on Thursday, January 31st, 2008 at 10:44 pm by Big Chris
The Supersonics led this one wire to wire with a lead as large as 23 at one point in the game. Not wanting to spare us any drama, they allowed the Cavs back into the game late, and Earl Watson’s turnover with 50 seconds left had me yelling at my computer (streaming audio) and waking up neighbors! Thankfully they closed it out.
Kevin Durant played well with 24 points on 10 of 16 shooting. Chris Wilcox played very well with 18 points and 13 rebounds. Jeff Green wen 8 for 8 from the floor and had 17 points. Kurt Thomas contributed 16 points and took a game clinching charge. Earl Watson added 12 assists.
(25-20)
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(11-35)
| Cleveland | |||||||||||||||
| Name | Min | FG | 3Pt | FT | +/- | Off | Reb | Ast | TO | Stl | BS | BA | PF | Pts | |
| L. Hughes | G | 37:25 | 10-21 | 4-8 | 4-4 | -3 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 28 |
| I. Newble | G | 18:59 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | -15 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Z. Ilgauskas | C | 35:39 | 3-13 | 0-0 | 11-11 | +1 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 |
| D. Gooden | F | 19:14 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | -19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| D. Brown | F | 9:06 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | -12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| D. Gibson | 33:15 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | +6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | |
| D. Jones | 28:02 | 5-12 | 5-11 | 0-0 | +6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | |
| D. Jones | 25:15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | +10 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| E. Snow | 16:18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | -4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| D. Marshall | 9:16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| S. Brown | 7:29 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| C. Simmons | DNP - Coach’s Decision | ||||||||||||||
| Totals | 30-78 | 12-27 | 23-27 | 14 | 33 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 95 | |||
| Percentages: | .385 | .444 | .852 | Team Rebounds: 8 |
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| Seattle | |||||||||||||||
| Name | Min | FG | 3Pt | FT | +/- | Off | Reb | Ast | TO | Stl | BS | BA | PF | Pts | |
| K. Durant |
G |
30:09 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 4-5 | +10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 24 |
| E. Watson | G | 27:54 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | +10 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| K. Thomas | C | 32:14 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | +1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| J. Green | F | 35:01 | 8-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | +7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 |
| C. Wilcox | F | 31:21 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 4-4 | +7 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 |
| L. Ridnour | 20:43 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| D. West | 17:51 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | -4 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| N. Collison | 16:23 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | |
| J. Petro | 15:24 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-3 | +2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
| D. Wilkins | 12:59 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |
| R. Swift | DNP - Coach’s Decision | ||||||||||||||
| W. Szczerbiak | DNP - Coach’s Decision | ||||||||||||||
| Totals | 44-78 | 3-7 | 10-14 | 8 | 40 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 101 | |||
| Percentages: | .564 | .429 | .714 | Team Rebounds: 9 |
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| Game Info |
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Technical Fouls: None |
January 31st, 2008 at 10:49 pm
Insert Large Sigh of Relief Here:
January 31st, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Nice. Good to see KD shoot efficiently again tonight. Guess I’ll have to wait for the replay on league pass.
Now I just need to find a replay of tonights season premiere of Lost. Anyone know where I can watch it???
January 31st, 2008 at 11:03 pm
Let’s see:
Cleveland had 14 off. reb.; Seattle had 8
Cleveland had only 13 t.o.’s; Seattle had 17
Cleveland made 23 FT’s; Seattle made 10
Cleveland made 12 3-pt shots; Seattle made 3
Cleveland and Seattle each had 78 fga’s.
How did Seattle win?
January 31st, 2008 at 11:06 pm
AJW….your sarcasm has been noted. I am going to my DVR to watch it now.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Huh?
January 31st, 2008 at 11:12 pm
“Let’s see:
Cleveland had 14 off. reb.; Seattle had 8
Cleveland had only 13 t.o.’s; Seattle had 17
Cleveland made 23 FT’s; Seattle made 10
Cleveland made 12 3-pt shots; Seattle made 3
Cleveland and Seattle each had 78 fga’s.
How did Seattle win?”
I’m guessing they played some pretty good defense considering that they didn’t have to worry about James penetrating; to go along with pretty good shooting.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:14 pm
You said you were going to get from a Torrent later after I said go get on ABC.com. I thought that was directed at me as sarcasm. My memory may not be serving me. Should think before I type. Oh yeah, way to go Sonics!!!
January 31st, 2008 at 11:17 pm
It’s not availabe on abc.com currently. But I did find it on mininova.org. SWEET
January 31st, 2008 at 11:17 pm
And commercial free!
January 31st, 2008 at 11:23 pm
Very very good game and nice win for Sonics….
January 31st, 2008 at 11:24 pm
SA just came back and beat the Suns in Phoenix with some clutch shots/ft’s by Manu. Makes me feel even better about our win against them.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:28 pm
Wally World, what was your take on Wally’s suede jacket tonight?
January 31st, 2008 at 11:46 pm
Who would have thought that at the beginning of the season that Wally, Wilcox, and Thomas would be the Sonics “Big Three.” The three of them are +57 on the season, the best mark among three teammates on the team. By contrast, the Celtics Big Three is the best in the league at +325.
“SA just came back and beat the Suns in Phoenix with some clutch shots/ft’s by Manu. Makes me feel even better about our win against them.”
The only way Phoenix can get to the NBA Finals is to avoid San Antonio. They need to hope that Dallas can do their dirty work for them in either the first or second round. Steve Nash looks more like Earl Watson/Luke Ridnour than a two-time MVP whenever the Suns square off against San Antonio.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:48 pm
The Sonics were also completely smashing the Cavs on the boards for most of the game. The fact that the Cavs are one of the best rebounding teams in the league says something about the work of Weezy, KT and Nick tonight.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:49 pm
The worst Sonic trio on the season? Watson, Durant, and Collison. They are -189 on the season. In fact, they are the second worst trio in the NBA, just behind the illustrious Crawford/Richardson/Curry trio in New York City.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:56 pm
The Big Dipper Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 11:03 pm
Let’s see:
Cleveland had 14 off. reb.; Seattle had 8
Cleveland had only 13 t.o.’s; Seattle had 17
Cleveland made 23 FT’s; Seattle made 10
Cleveland made 12 3-pt shots; Seattle made 3
Cleveland and Seattle each had 78 fga’s.
How did Seattle win?
You left off a few didn’t you?
Seattle had 40 rebounds, Cleveland had 33.
Seattle had 34 assists, Cleveland had 18.
Seattle scored 101 points, Cleveland scored 95. ;o)
Aside from all the wasteful sarcasm it is notable that the Sonics had almost double the number of assists and shot a much higher FG%.
I’m sure it had nothing to do with the Sonics better passing resulting in a larger quantity of higher percentage shots.
Definately a win with an asteric next to it with all the injuries on the Cavs side, but a win none the less. You gotta suite up and play and not make excuses. Anyways, just goes to show how important superstars are in this league.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:01 am
Our offense seems to be better when we’re taking shots early in the clock. Shooting an EFG% of over 50% when we shoot within 10 seconds of the shotclock. So the key to scoring more points for the Sonics is to shoot before that clock hits 14!
February 1st, 2008 at 12:03 am
Donyell Marshall coming off the bench without his jersey was classic.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:07 am
Our offense seems to be better when we’re taking shots early in the clock. Shooting an EFG% of over 50% when we shoot within 10 seconds of the shotclock. So the key to scoring more points for the Sonics is to shoot before that clock hits 14!
I think the key is taking good, high percentage shots. If a significant number of those shots come in transition, where we get short uncontested jumpers or layups, then all the better. If not, then pull it out and run a play that gets you a good high percentage shot and quit settling for lazy long range jumpers as the shot clock expires.
February 1st, 2008 at 1:17 am
I wonder why they didn’t play Gooden as much in the 2nd half - he seemed to be the only person that could score consistantly against us first half. Hughes heated up in the 2nd half.
Has Delonte regressed or did he always look lost?
February 1st, 2008 at 1:19 am
Frozen-
so right about shot selection.
my question: are these guys learning from PJ or is the league schooling them. have they played ehough games to figure it on their own.
February 1st, 2008 at 1:25 am
chron-
didn’t seem the cavs thought they would win just by showing up?
delonte has looked lost since he got here, except that early season game against utah when he played williams great down the stretch and durant couldn’t finish at the rim for the win
February 1st, 2008 at 2:01 am
It’s no surprise Durant’s good shooting nights come only when he doesn’t attempt any threes.
February 1st, 2008 at 5:26 am
Sam,I didnt watch the game so i need to watch tonight and will tell you what i think…I know he is wearing some good jacquets so please wait…I will tell you….
February 1st, 2008 at 6:00 am
chron- i think west has looked a little lost partly because he has not been in the rotation (at practice or games) for a few weeks. i thought he looked better last night than his 1st game back. he really didnt look for his own offense but he did have 5 rebounds, 4 assists and played some decent defense. he just needs to get confortable. unfortunetly for him if wally returns he could find himself out of the rotation again.
i watched west for the past 3 yrs in boston and he really is a much better player than what you are seeing. maybe its because he has lost his confidence or maybe he just is not a good fit for pj’s system (whatever that is)
February 1st, 2008 at 7:23 am
Delonte is being so passive… its sad to see. But he did not hurt the team in other areas such as passing (4 assists/0 turnovers) and rebounding (5 boards). I think he is just going with flow until the season is over or someone gets traded and he has more of a role on the team.
February 1st, 2008 at 7:24 am
I think we have to realize that his best attribute is scoring and with this team he is not getting the opportunity to score.
February 1st, 2008 at 8:20 am
AJW i have NBA leaguepass how can you see a replay of the game??
February 1st, 2008 at 8:47 am
i think you can go on nba.com and see the games too..maybe replays… i remember my comcast was out and i watched a celtics game last year online for a little bit.
February 1st, 2008 at 8:56 am
Great win last night, got shaky towards the end there but once again luke comes thru to ice it with his FT shooting.
There was a lot of talk about Al Thornton’s snub and his “response” with a big game. Considering that Green isn’t really a guy the sonics go to for his scoring, a 17-3-3 game where he goes 8/8 from the field (including a 3ptr which is his third OF THE SEASON) what more could we ask of our #5 pick? Honestly I think the rookie game invite might be jsut the confidence boost this kid needed to get his game going and feel like he belongs out there on the court.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:30 am
Haha did anyone else see that drunk guy go on the court and try to chat it up with Lebron?
By the way, PJ has to be the worst coach in the history of the game. Leaving four of our starting players who made up 80% of the scoring until 6 mins left in the game? What the hell was that?
PJ we get it…Clay told you to bomb the season and you’re all over it…but last night was even bad for you! You should coach a team that wants to lose because you’d be great at that!
February 1st, 2008 at 9:40 am
I read on hoopshype today that Robert Swift may play on Saturday. I have to wonder if the timeframe for his return has been timed so the club can get a good look at him before the trade deadline comes about. If Swift looks okay then perhaps it signals that making a trade using Kurt Thomas would be okay.
I didn’t see the game but I saw the highlights and the Marshall non jersey incident was front and center. Lebron James almost fell out of his chair laughing so hard. This one is going to get alot of airtime.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:44 am
“my question: are these guys learning from PJ or is the league schooling them. have they played ehough games to figure it on their own.”
It has nothing to do with PJ, the league is schooling these youngsters. When this team ends up staying in Seattle and Jacob Marley….er….I mean Clay Bennett sells this team to local ownership PJ is gone with the wind.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:45 am
With about 7 minutes to go in the game, a 14-point lead, two or three Cavs standing under the basket, the rest of his team coming up court, and about 18 seconds left on the shot clock, West heaved up a three. (He missed, badly.)
That decision alone should be enough to bench him. Deplorable.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:01 am
Let’s see:
Cleveland had 14 off. reb.; Seattle had 8
Cleveland had only 13 t.o.’s; Seattle had 17
Cleveland made 23 FT’s; Seattle made 10
Cleveland made 12 3-pt shots; Seattle made 3
Cleveland and Seattle each had 78 fga’s.
How did Seattle win?
- Odd…you didn’t do this same thing for the San Antonio game…gee I wonder why?? Same with AK…we haven’t heard how horrible Durant is at shooting the last couple nights. I wonder why?
February 1st, 2008 at 10:03 am
- One thing I think that has impacted KD’s progress is that this is the first time in his life that he isn’t far and away the best player on the basketball court. I think it really causes him to struggle with his passing and dribbling skills since he isn’t used to thinking that passing to an open teammate is a better option than him taking a shot.
The series of plays in the 2nd (maybe 3rd?) quarter where he got 2 blocks and 1 steal on three consecutive possessions showed his true potential. On the other hand those same three TOs he created led to him making some pretty horrible open court plays, which kind of supports my comment above. The guy just does not look comfortable passing…
February 1st, 2008 at 10:12 am
The series of plays in the 2nd (maybe 3rd?) quarter where he got 2 blocks and 1 steal on three consecutive possessions showed his true potential. On the other hand those same three TOs he created led to him making some pretty horrible open court plays, which kind of supports my comment above. The guy just does not look comfortable passing…
That was a pretty wild sequence. Showed how dangerous Durant’s length can be on the defensive end, followed up by evidence of why he’s a rookie and shouldn’t be leading the fast break at this point in his career. Those were just plain mental mistakes, bad passes. Needed to slow down and settle down.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:20 am
I thought when we acquired Kurt Thomas that he’d be positive on our bigs, I totally see Petro doing that, too bad Swift and Sene aren’t benefiting too. Wally has impressed me with his lights out shooting and west is just doing what earl has done for a while. I said in the summer that all the DC “homeboys” would motivate CW to elevate his game, but he’s exceeded my expectations. He took any wind out of their sails from minute 1. God I want to keep this team because I can see in about 3 years we could be worth getting up for. Durant taking it to the rack is what i’m talking about.
Green had a few monster jams the other night against houston.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:24 am
As the Lakers continue to stumble with Bynum out of their lineup, losing by 1 to the Pistons, I hope their losses continue to build. Just might scare Mitch enough to accept the following deal…..
http://www.realgm.com/src_checktrade.php?tradeid=4456924
This would provide for some minor roster consolidation for the Sonics and give us a young big PG, allowing us even more flexibility come draft day.
Then we could look to trade Watson to the Magic for some more expiring contracts.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:28 am
nice win for the Sonics who now have a 2 game winning streak going. It’s good to see them win at home these past two games.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:28 am
Well, of course, the reason the Sonics won last night is because they made 44 of 78 (.564) shots from the field, while Cleveland made only 30 of 78 (.385) shots from the field.
Shooting is what basketball is all about. That is a 28-point advantage (if all shots were 3-pointers) strictly from shooting a better percentage.
Nobody ripped Durant the past 2 games because he played well the past 2 games. Duh.
Just like you don’t see any of the Ridnour lovers saying anything about Luke’s game last night. Beause he played like crap, as usual.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:30 am
if all shots were 2-pointers, i meant to type.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:44 am
Well, of course, the reason the Sonics won last night is because they made 44 of 78 (.564) shots from the field, while Cleveland made only 30 of 78 (.385) shots from the field.
- Well its a darn good thing they can’t go back and look at the San Antonio game and remove our victory because we didn’t win the FG% there. The Sonics need all the wins they can get.
Just like you don’t see any of the Ridnour lovers saying anything about Luke’s game last night. Beause he played like crap, as usual.
- Are there any Ridnour lovers anymore??
I thought when we acquired Kurt Thomas that he’d be positive on our bigs, I totally see Petro doing that, too bad Swift and Sene aren’t benefiting too.
- Petro hasn’t improved at all…I’ve never seen a more unworthy player play like a ball hog (not even Wilkins is that bad). He’s just had a little streak where his poor shots have actually went in the bucket.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:55 am
Kevin Durant’s torrid shooting over the last two games unequivocally proves that he is one of the finest offensive players in the history of the National Basketball Association. He has clearly turned a corner, as exemplified by his masterful array of moves against the San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers. Furthermore, Jeff Green has proven himself to be a versatile two-way player with a polished arsenal of offensive moves. His 8-8 shooting display against one of the finest defensive teams in the league illustrates his propensity to dominate weaker and less athletic opponents.
Y’all would have to be mentally deficient to argue against these irrefutable claims.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:05 am
There was no defense coming off the bench in the 4th quarter when PJ played his reserves. Not surprising when the Sonics’ two best defensive players are in the NBDL.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:05 am
I really do see improvement in Petro, if it’s all for showcasing him, then i’m ok with that too.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:10 am
Hate to say it but Petro does look better. West looks like a girl with no prom date. Give me Sene, Petro, and Swift down the strech. I loath Watson but with ridnour looking so bad, how do you trade him?
February 1st, 2008 at 11:11 am
SK=Sarcasm King. lol
Myk Says:
- Are there any Ridnour lovers anymore??
Amazingly so but they usually only participate in the game threads. Typically something like,
“Did you see that alley oop that Luke threw? That’s a real point guard right there. Watson could never maker that pass.”
It’s a sight to see.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:15 am
TBD
1. Thing thing about shooting % is that it’s an effect, not a cause. Correlating shooting % to wins is almost as silly as saying ‘when we score more than the other team, we win!’ Why did we shoot so well? Our huge assists advantage probably had something to do it. Field goal percentage has a great deal to do with how easy the shots taken were.
- I didn’t think Luke played like crap. I thought he did some good things when he was in there. He again closed out a win and made important free throws down the stretch. I don’t know what that business with his shoe was though.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:17 am
It’s funny, you guys are constantly telling us to STFU about Luke, and then when we don’t make a comment you complain that we aren’t talking about him. Is it beating a dead horse or not? Do we have to give you a full ‘Luke Report’ after every game?
February 1st, 2008 at 11:26 am
It’s funny, you guys are constantly telling us to STFU about Luke, and then when we don’t make a comment you complain that we aren’t talking about him. Is it beating a dead horse or not? Do we have to give you a full ‘Luke Report’ after every game?
- At this point the expectations for Luke just need to be reduced. He’s not as horrible as some people think (especially when their big problem is that he “plays like a girl”) and he will not turn the corner and be great. Historically this was the year to turn the corner and become a good player. Unfortunately, it really looks like his lack of overall confidence holds him back way too much.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:27 am
Myk, that’s fine. Nobody says he’ll be great. We just prefer him over Watson. That’s all the argument ever was.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:29 am
Myk, that’s fine. Nobody says he’ll be great. We just prefer him over Watson. That’s all the argument ever was.
- Im pretty sure I invented that argument…so I know where you are coming from.
1. Thing thing about shooting % is that it’s an effect, not a cause. Correlating shooting % to wins is almost as silly as saying ‘when we score more than the other team, we win!’ Why did we shoot so well? Our huge assists advantage probably had something to do it. Field goal percentage has a great deal to do with how easy the shots taken were.
- Worm…you need to understand that FG% is by far the absolute most important factor and the only stat that should be focused on at all times when it comes to W/Ls…except for when it isn’t…
February 1st, 2008 at 11:33 am
I thought Watson has been bringing it these last few games.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:33 am
During the game myself and everyone around me in key arena were saying “if we lose this one its PJs fault”. Last night was pretty obvious that some lineups were working and some weren’t - yet he’d wait way too long with the ones that weren’t.
Good game by Damien… it almost looks like we have last years damien back.
During the stretch where we had difficulty scoring quite often watson would come down and then just kinda waste time until there was only 15 or less (sometimes as little as 11) before getting rid of the ball which was the opposite of the first half of the game. Do you think this was PJ telling him to do that? Earl falling into old habits? Or just good cavs defense? (didn’t look like it was cav defense - there was usually 1 or 2 options for passing to). Luke was not a lot better either - as he would dribble around until about same time on clock - but at least he was penetrating and kicking not just standing at the top of the key.
Delonte looks to be an amazing rebounder for his height and position - his positioning, timing and hops to get the boards that he got were incredible (I sat right behind the backboard so I got to see that sorta stuff up close)… but the rest of his game last night looked kinda lost… dribble a little… look for someone to pass to, rinse repeat. I didn’t remember him like that in Boston and most sonics games I’ve seen this year didn’t have Delonte (I was having my kitchen remodeled right before the holidays so I didn’t catch too many games till Jan)
February 1st, 2008 at 11:35 am
oh FYI… I noticed on my home computer I was posting as “chrhon” and work computer was “coop”… sorry - we are one and the same person
February 1st, 2008 at 11:37 am
Assists are not a cause — they are an affect. If you make a shot there can be an assist. If you miss a shot there can be no assist. Since the Sonics made 44 shots, and the Cavs made only 30, the Supes had the possibility for 14 more assists than the Cavs. Obviously, the Supes should have had more assists than the Cavs, due to the Supes higher shooting %. It is made shots that create assists. There can be no assists without made shots.
I saw Durant, Thomas, and Green, among others, making jump shots last night that they often have missed this season. That has nothing to do with passing (especially Greens 3-pointer). It may have had something to do with the Cavs poor defense. But it was primarily because the Supes made a lot of shots that in most games they have been missing. It is just that simple.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:38 am
You mean there are people who actually think Luke played well last night? Talk about low expectations. Is there any other point guard in the league who, if they had the game that Luke had last night, anyone would have said, “he had a good game”?
February 1st, 2008 at 11:42 am
Luke was horrible… why PJ left him that long baffles me but I’m not suprised, is it because he is a clean cut white guy? lol, I noticed that too with Collison and Wilcox, haha. Now Wilcox was a guy who had a good game last night.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:50 am
One observation a Cavs fan made near the end of the game was that Seattle has no idea how to close out games when they have a good lead. Until the Sonics get a couple of savvy veterans I expect our fourth quarters to be dicey even if the Sonics have the lead.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:01 pm
If assists…which for the most part come from moving the ball (or at least tend to appear more when players are passing the ball more often) do not lead to better shots then why do teams even pass the ball. Why wouldn’t they just find their best shooter and have him iso every time down the court and shoot the ball??
February 1st, 2008 at 12:11 pm
“Kevin Durant’s torrid shooting over the last two games unequivocally proves that he is one of the finest offensive players in the history of the National Basketball Association. He has clearly turned a corner, as exemplified by his masterful array of moves against the San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers. Furthermore, Jeff Green has proven himself to be a versatile two-way player with a polished arsenal of offensive moves. His 8-8 shooting display against one of the finest defensive teams in the league illustrates his propensity to dominate weaker and less athletic opponents.
Y’all would have to be mentally deficient to argue against these irrefutable claims.” {SK1984}
LMFAO!
I bet that either Alex or Dick wrote that comment.
In any case, though, the actual author deserves props.
“At this point the expectations for Luke just need to be reduced. He’s not as horrible as some people think (especially when their big problem is that he “plays like a girl”) and he will not turn the corner and be great. Historically this was the year to turn the corner and become a good player. Unfortunately, it really looks like his lack of overall confidence holds him back way too much.” {Myk}
Okay, I’m done harping on you about Luke Ridnour. We’ve all had overblown expectations about certain players, so you’re not the only dude who’s made this kind of error in judgement. Neither Luke Ridnour nor Earl Watson are the answer at point guard, which is an indisputable conclusion after two years of debating this hotly contested topic. Indeed, it’s time to move on in a different direction.
“As the Lakers continue to stumble with Bynum out of their lineup, losing by 1 to the Pistons, I hope their losses continue to build. Just might scare Mitch enough to accept the following deal…..
http://www.realgm.com/src_checktrade.php?tradeid=4456924
This would provide for some minor roster consolidation for the Sonics and give us a young big PG, allowing us even more flexibility come draft day.” {Frozenropers}
Aside from my tentativeness toward Javaris Crittenton, Kurt Thomas probably isn’t on Mitch Kupchak’s radar. Instead of focusing on Thomas — who wouldn’t mesh well with Phil Jackson’s triangle offense — Kupchak should try to flip Kwame Brown’s expiring contract to the Sacramento Kings for Brad Miller. Since I’ve advocated that transaction prior to today, however, sothere’s no need for me to rehash it. I still stand by my reasoning, though.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:11 pm
“If assists…which for the most part come from moving the ball (or at least tend to appear more when players are passing the ball more often) do not lead to better shots then why do teams even pass the ball. Why wouldn’t they just find their best shooter and have him iso every time down the court and shoot the ball?? ”
Remember you’re only allowed to use cause-effect reasoning in arguments concerning FG%. As we all know it’s the only important skill an NBA player needs.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:15 pm
To me assists have value though most rating formula overvalue them. The old article presents some data on the value of a good pass.
http://www.82games.com/assisted.htm
February 1st, 2008 at 12:23 pm
To me assists have value though most rating formula overvalue them. The old article presents some data on the value of a good pass.
- I would agree with this…to say that passing isn’t important in this game is just silly
- The things i find interesting about the whole FG% idea is that players he would say are really good: Nash/Stockton aren’t nearly as good as he thinks if you want to agree with his idea. A big part of their worth is their ability to distribute the ball. However, you see a guy like Stockton who “only” made 4.7 out of 9.1 shots a game on average.
While that is a high percentage…if you want to truly only believe that FG% is important you’d be much better off finding a guy who shot a somewhat similar percentage, but more often…this would have a greater effect on the “team’s FG%”…this is just one of the many things i can’t support.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:23 pm
AK1984 Says:
LMFAO!
I bet that either Alex or Dick wrote that comment.
Wasn’t me, I thought you were mocking yourself.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Assists are not a cause — they are an affect. If you make a shot there can be an assist. If you miss a shot there can be no assist.
This is the epitome of a stat based viewpoint with no understanding of the impact a good pass has on FG%.
Obviously, the Supes should have had more assists than the Cavs, due to the Supes higher shooting %. It is made shots that create assists. There can be no assists without made shots.
It is amazing to me that you still fail to see the connection that good passing can lead to a team taking “higher percentage shots” which results in higher FG%, more assists and scoring more points.
Higher FG% doesn’t just happen magically, it happens through better execution on offense, spacing the floor, better movement and making better passes which results in the team getting a larger quantity of higher percentage shots. “Good shooting” as you call it, is a byproduct of a team and or players improvement in the above areas on offense.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Luke didn’t play well at all. But he did hit two free throws. Delonte played okay and earl played okay.
PJ’s ’system’ obviously just wants the point guard to pass it off to the jump shooters or post players and let them score. There is no need for the point guard to score. That is why DWest was rather ineffective as the point guard. He still plays well defensively and that cant go unnoticed.
I really think earl is being showcased and the sonics will trade him definitely. I mean he does a good job passing to the wing jump shooters and then playing better d than luke. Thats all pj wants.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:32 pm
The basic point of the article is that “a shot that comes by virtue of an “assist worthy” pass had an over 8% better chance of going in for the sample we looked at”. It might have a little less value, all things considered.
8% more on FG% for each potentially assisted shot incrementally can add up to some points over a game, on average.
Sonics at 24 assists a game recently. Compared to a hypothetically no assist night those assists appear to be “worth” a bit over 4 pts. (8%*24*2pts= 4 and some 3 ptrs make it a little more)
Not huge. Big assist nights can help but you still have to do some combo of shoot well, rebound and win the turnover or free throw wars. A few extra assists would not be decisive for a team losing by an average of 8 but they help a little- especially close assists or 3 ptr assists. No assists would be a very very uphill battle to win night in / night out.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Jimmy Wolfrey said:
PJ’s ’system’ obviously just wants the point guard to pass it off to the jump shooters or post players and let them score. There is no need for the point guard to score. That is why DWest was rather ineffective as the point guard. He still plays well defensively and that cant go unnoticed.
This is an important point to discuss I think.
PJ would probably say that PG ability to stick a jumper is part of what they want but what do the stats say? They say Sonics PGs take the 18th most shots, 25th on just 3ptrs and 20th on FTs. Add it all up and they are 24th in scoring. So it is fair to say that PGs right now are de-emphasized on Sonics compared to other teams.
Is that ok or bad design? 11 of top 16 on PG scoring are in playoffs. So only 5 of botton 14 on PG are in playoffs. You’d have to look at all positions and year to year trends to call this proof of importance but it is at least a point to consider. I’ve felt that a 15+pt a game PG is one of the half dozen or so most important things you need to be a playoff team. To give you a point of attack and hopefully give other guys good looks off that action.
15pts isn’t an absolute, some guys can do enough on 10-12 pts a night on average and give you a bigger game here and there as needed. But I would still prefer a PG averaging 15+ pts quite a bit more. An edge to help in the fight for close game victories.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:59 pm
PJ’s ’system’ obviously just wants the point guard to pass it off to the jump shooters or post players and let them score.
- I was gone last weekend…since when did PJ have a system??
February 1st, 2008 at 1:02 pm
If all the team’s assists are worth a total of 4 pts then when I look at PGs I care more about how well they score and defend than whether they get 4-5 assists in 30+ minutes or 7-8. Now that said I do care about leadership. When you fall behind and need to rally or at the end of the game can they do enough distributing and scoring to advance the team or not? I look at assists as part of that but also clutch shooting and of course team win %.
This year with Ridnour on court is winning almost twice as much as Watson or West. He hasn’t put a lock on staying as starter or backup in future but the team performance with him gives him one argument for possibly staying right now.
February 1st, 2008 at 1:12 pm
There are the passes to Durant where he takes two dibbles toward the middle of the floor and then shoots, the pass also gave him a bit of a screen, he gets a second screen near the elbow, if he takes 3 dribbles and none of them are toward the basket but he still gets space to shoot, there might not be an Assist. There was a very good play to get him a 12 foot gimme at the FT line. No assist.
teams that use a ton of pindown, curl, wheel, etc, catch and shoot produce assists, teams that pass, screen, secondary screen, can provite just as good of a shot for the player without the assist.
How many passes a team makes per trip down the floor might be more telling. we all see flow-stopper players, but it does not always show in the box score in the assist column.
February 1st, 2008 at 1:19 pm
West or any PG can potentially be one thing under one set of directions and something different under another.
If Sonics want a traditional pass-first de-emphasized own scoring PG in the starting lineup with Durant then put the best one you get get in there. Now this really only makes sense if Durant and Wilcox and whoever starts are efficient scorers able to carry the scoring load well, players helped by a good passing PG. If Durant is more create for himself than spot-up shooter then a good passing PG may not help that much. It hasn’t so far. Could a scoring PG take some of the load off him and indirectly raise his FG%? I don’t know. He doesnt shoot well with any of these PGs. Maybe with a 15+ pt / game PG it would be different.
Most teams try to have a pass-first PG and a scorer (often combo sized). West was hoped (I think) to be the latter. But if that is what he is best at and you want then let him be that- a scoring PG and not the pass-first PG he really isn’t. He has the max potential of the guys here to be a 15+ pt a game guy. If this season is about experimentation and evaluation I’d still give him 10-20 of the remaining starts at PG for big minutes to see if he can do that role well here, well enough to choose tha type of PG as starter or even just to stay as the backup. I doubt boxing him into traditional PG role is going to work given the years of trying in Boston. But then again nothing really worked great there and hasn’t here. Ultimately West has to figure it out as Steve noted the other day.
February 1st, 2008 at 1:25 pm
The Kidd trade might be NJ bluster / dreaming or semi-real or very real. Probably mostly bluster/dreaming. But if Portland were at all serious about giving up several guys to get D Harris that would suggest that Pritchard does value a 15+ pt PG and that Blake wasn’t the endpoint of the discussion. Jack was hoped to be that guy awhile ago but it is pretty clear he isn’t all they want longterm.
February 1st, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Well West has a lot to figure out for his own sake but ultimately here Presti and PJ should be guiding him, guiding effectively to good performance. So far… not so much.
February 1st, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Glad to see the strong shooting game by Green.
Looking at at stats for games won and lost Sonics rookies both shooting 10+%pts better in wins than losses. Considering the large roles given to them the Sonics chose to ride this rollercoaster. Hopefully both learn the NBA game and get more consistent so team can be in more games next season.
February 1st, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Crow: haven’t you been reading these posts? Green’s good shooting night had nothing to do with Green. It was all because someone was giving him great passes last night that he has not been getting in other games. Come on. Stop giving Green creidt for his good shooting game, when it obiously was due to some other players’ great passing.
February 1st, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Dipper: haven’t you been reading these posts? Take the middle road. It actually makes sense.
February 1st, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Green was taking Wally’s shots, I guess it doesn’t matter who shoots those, they just go in on their own, it isn’t even Wally, it is those passes.
I floated an idea here, when the joint was under the other owner, that a good screen, or pick, could count as an assist, giving the scorer an advantage and leading directly to a score. That would require somebody to watch the game and determine that an assist happened. Maybe call it something else. I football defensive players get a “hurry” and somehow that is counted and shows some value, even if as just a talking point.
February 1st, 2008 at 2:16 pm
OK. Here’s something to ponder for all you “the pass makes the shot” theorists.
New Jersey is SECOND WORST in the NBA in FG% this season (43.3%), and SECOND WORST in scoring (93.6). Yet New Jersey is THIRD BEST in assists. And Jason Kidd is THIRD HIGHEST in assists among all players.
So how do you explain that, if passing and assists means high fg%? The third-highest assist team has the second-lowest fg%. You sure a lot of assists/game means a high fg%?
February 1st, 2008 at 3:30 pm
SonicBoom Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 8:20 am
“AJW i have NBA leaguepass how can you see a replay of the game?? ”
If you have a league pass account you can watch most of the replays online at nba.com. They’re only up for 48 hours in the archives section so you better hurry!
February 1st, 2008 at 3:37 pm
“So how do you explain that, if passing and assists means high fg%? The third-highest assist team has the second-lowest fg%. You sure a lot of assists/game means a high fg%? ”
I’ll take your route and throw this one out the window since this is one of those “rare occassions.”
I think the argument is that assists can be a good indicator of good ball movement and a CHANCE at a higher % shot.
February 1st, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Well, I’m very disappointed. I thought sure one of you basketball geniuses would have explained that to me by now.
February 1st, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Well, I’m very disappointed. I thought sure one of you basketball geniuses would have explained that to me by now.
- You still havent answered the question I asked above…if you were a coach does that mean your idea of an offense would be to just find who your best shooter was and give him the ball at the top of the key for an iso play? I mean if good passing (which is at least SOME measure of the assist totals) does not create a higher FG% then wouldn’t it make more sense just to set your guy up at the top of the key and have everyone get out of the way??
- Also, in your past comments you have said that one of the reasons you never liked KD is because he wasn’t a “great” shooter in college. You then went on to show how a guy like John Stockton shot so well in college and it translated into the NBA game.
OTH, you have also commented that Isaiah Thomas is one of the most overrated NBA players. I assume this is because of his mid40% shooting percentage. Well Isaiah shot well over 50% in college…so tell me…was Isaiah a good shooter or a bad shooter? I mean looking at the two numbers it really confuses me. Same with Jason Kidd to be honest. In college he shot 48%…so does that mean he is a good shooter or bad shooter??
Also…does your argument also stand that you’d rather have a guy who shoots 10 for 20 over a guy who shoots 5 for 9 and gets 13 assists per game?? Do you really not think these two players could be equally as valuable to your team??
Finally, if FG% is so important why would you start a PG/SG/SF/PF/C?? Would really prefer to have a starting front line of Bierdrein/Chandler/Bynum cause they all shoot close to 60%??
February 1st, 2008 at 3:50 pm
I think the argument is that assists can be a good indicator of good ball movement and a CHANCE at a higher % shot.
- Yes amazingly enough most people here think that multiple facets of the game lead to winning…not just shooting percentage. Its an amazing position to have I know…
February 1st, 2008 at 3:57 pm
So how do you explain that, if passing and assists means high fg%? The third-highest assist team has the second-lowest fg%. You sure a lot of assists/game means a high fg%?
- What I dont get is that you always pull out these like one off examples. If we do that then I would ask why Boston has the best record in the NBA and only is 5th in FG% and New Orleans is best in the West with only 11th in FG%.
Utah has the top FG% and is only th 7th best team in their conference. They lose two games and they aren’t even in the playoffs…
The only thing people are trying to say to you (which you can get through your head) is that there is no ONE stat that should be focused on and that to think one part of the game is some how significantly more important than every other part of the game is down right silly.
February 1st, 2008 at 4:06 pm
so, that is how good of a passer Kid is, and how bad the rest of the Nets are. He throws way more passes than some other PG with similar assist numbers, on a team that can shoot better could take advantage of his passing skills, resulting in even more assists for Kid, in proportion to the better quality offense he would play with.
just a guess.
I have had this conversation on the ESPN message boards almost 10 years ago, off topic here, but the Sonics and Suns used to play a back to back, home and away with the Suns, Payron vs Kidd, some of the best passing and playmaking I have ever seen.
February 1st, 2008 at 4:11 pm
brent barry is a great passer, his assist numbers are low, Nate has him at the top of the circle, he either shoots the ball or is the guy getting the first pass and the guy he passes to makes another pass and gets the assist, either by the shooter in the corner or by passing it back to barry for the open shot.
there is another meaningless, lost conversation.
Kidd is one of the best passers ever, his team sucks
February 1st, 2008 at 4:21 pm
“then wouldn’t it make more sense just to set your guy up at the top of the key and have everyone get out of the way??”
Isn’t that exactly what most teams do when they are playing for the last shot?
The fact is that most teams wind up with players getting the same sort of shots as every other team. The teams with higher fg% are the teams with the best shooters — not teams with the best passers. I use N.J. as the best example of this, since many people think Jason Kidd is a great passer, yet his team is one of the worst-shooting teams in the league. If Kidd’s passing really makes his teammates better shooters, why is N.J. shooting so terribly this season? It is because they have a bunch of bad shooters on N.J., including Jason Kidd. It is not because N.J. is a really bad passing team, is it?
February 1st, 2008 at 4:25 pm
The Big Dipper Says:
“Well, I’m very disappointed. I thought sure one of you basketball geniuses would have explained that to me by now. ”
Hey give us a little more time to get on here and refute your rediculous claims…
Okay I’ll try again with this question Dipper as I did in the last FG% thread. Is your argument more about the statistic as an important indicator? Or that all non-shooting facets of the game are unimportant compared with scoring efficiency?
I’ll give you that assists can be a mediocre statistic. Because shooting is roughly a 50-50 endevour, assists can correlate poorly with outcome in lower samples, and even in some cases longer samples like your NJ example above. But GOOD passing does enhance FG% and winning independently of assist statistics, as does good screens, ball movement, moving without the ball… on and on. Championship teams exhibit all kinds of good skills not just shooting.
BTW, I just read Lebron’s comments on guaranteeing a championship if he gets Kidd on his team. Of course what could he know…
February 1st, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Sam K,i just saw replay of game on NBA LP and can tell you that Wally’s jacket is some kind of stuff which he wear on every game when he is DNP after dress code…..I hope so that i will never see him again in that jacket this season…..Wally must play against Knicks…..He kill Knicks every time in his career when he is on the home court…Sonics will continue their winning streak for next 2 home games and next away game,then they will lose…..
February 1st, 2008 at 4:30 pm
I have never said that every great college shooter becomes a great NBA shooter. I have said that the great majority of players who play at least 3 years in college (which is becoming a rarity these days) shoot a lower fg% in the NBA than they did in their sophomore year in college, which is to be expected, I would say. Therefore, in general, someone who shot, say 47% in his sophomore season in college, will probably shoot below 47% for his NBA career. There is a very high probability of that.
There are some great exceptions, Steve Nash being the very best example. Nash is shooting a much higher fg% in the NBA the past few seasons than he did in college. He is a rare case.
I would never use a high draft pick on a player who shot a low fg% in his sophomore year in college, like Luke Ridnour. I said that Luke was a wasted draft pick the day they drafted him, because he was a low-percentage shooter in his sophomore year in college. Nick Collison, on the other hand, was a high-percentage shooter in college, and I said that Collison could be a good NBA player. In my opinion, that has turned out to be the case: I think Collison is a good NBA player, and Luke is not an NBA player at all. I predicted that from their college fg%.
There is no guarantee that a player who had a high fg% in college will be a good NBA player. But there is a very high probability that a low fg% player in his sophomore year in college will not be a good NBA player, by my definition of “good NBA player” = high fg% shooter.
I use sophomore in college FG% to eliminate players from draft consideration. I do not use it to gurantee NBA success for good college shooters. You just use it to give yourself the best chance of getting a good NBA player, and to prevent mistakes like Luke Ridnour.
February 1st, 2008 at 4:43 pm
“Isn’t that exactly what most teams do when they are playing for the last shot?”
Horrendous argument. This is why most of the time those types of shots leads to misses. The Lakers for example recently had some bad stretches of “last shot” execution during the final seconds of periods and games.
I remember watching a segment on NBA Fastbreak on ESPN when Tim Legler was breaking down why most teams fail at creating good shots in late game situations. A lot of teams iso their best player and have him chuck up a bad % shot. He then brought up a team that had good ball movement in those same situations, which was Dallas, and broke down how they get good shots. They made the game winner after four Maverick players touched the ball and swung it to a wide open Jerry Stackhouse. The point is, you don’t just stick your best player at the top of the key and have him shoot as that would lead to a low % attempt. Rather it’s better to make the defense move and constantly swing the ball for a wide open look.
February 1st, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Having watched the Celtics this year quite a bit, I’ve been struck by how many times their offense ends up coming from guys other than the big 3. In fact all 3 are down in scoring, but they all have good assists. Could it be that as great players they draw attention which opens up their team mates? And that their passing skills augment their scoring abilities? Ooooops… I forgot that good players never make their team mates better. And how foolish of those 3 guys to be passing so much to lesser players! It will never work out for them to be a winning team…
February 1st, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Actually I usually use a player’s junior year in college for his shooting stats, but there aren’t that many guys who go into the NBA who play 3 years of college these days. But for those who do, I look at their fg% in their junior year, not sophomore year. It was Ridnour’s Junior year fg% that made me predict he was a bad draft pick.
February 1st, 2008 at 4:45 pm
I use N.J. as the best example of this, since many people think Jason Kidd is a great passer, yet his team is one of the worst-shooting teams in the league. If Kidd’s passing really makes his teammates better shooters, why is N.J. shooting so terribly this season? It is because they have a bunch of bad shooters on N.J., including Jason Kidd. It is not because N.J. is a really bad passing team, is it?
- LOL no you don’t…you use this team because it is the only one who supports you argument. Why not use Phoenix? What about Utah…their PGs sure seem to be pretty good at assists…
Keep cherry picking your best arguments…
February 1st, 2008 at 4:46 pm
If that doesn’t change your simplistic views of the game, I don’t know what will.
February 1st, 2008 at 4:46 pm
The point is a good shooter will make a shot more often than a bad shooter, no matter who is passing him the ball.
February 1st, 2008 at 4:58 pm
“you use this team because it is the only one who supports you argument.”
Denver: #3 in assists (23.4); #16 in fg% (45.2)
Indiana: #6 in assists (23.2) #22 in fg% (44.3)
Clippers: #10 in assists (21.8) #24 in fg% (43.9)
Sacramento #29 in assists (18.8); #8 in fg% (46.0)
Orlando #23 in assists (20.0); #6 in fg% (46.5)
Dallas #21 in assists (20.3); #5 in fg% (47.1)
February 1st, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Green is assisted on 57% of made shots.
Durant assisted on 59% of made shots.
Lewis last season was 56%.
All these are middling wing values.
By comparison spot up shooter Wally assisted on 71% of made shots. Try to make it himself a lot Wilkins 49%.
Make of that data what you will.
The two sides are clearly presented and it is a standoff unlikely to be resolved. Each view will be maintained.
I was going to say NJ wtih Kidd worked better in past (again) but when I checked team offense it has always been below average on efficiency there. Kidd worked pretty well because he was part of a strong defense (near top in league for 5 years) and he let others do what they can do- not that he made them an offensive juggernaut.
Nj went from near best on defense in 05-06 to average in 06-07 to bottom ten this year.
The point of that to me is that the focus should be on shot defense as much as own shooting % (and assists if you wish).
February 1st, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Mr Baker is right that small shooter/scorer behaviors can affect the reward of an assist. And that good passing is more than just the assist passes. It is retaining possession / avoiding turnovers.
Ultimately the shooter has to put it in though.
February 1st, 2008 at 7:59 pm
If you accept “a shot that comes by virtue of an “assist worthy” pass had an over 8% better chance of going in ” that makes an assist worth .16 pts and a turnover is worth about 1 (the average value of a possesion) then being very careful with the basketball makes stat sense.
A Daniels’ extreme caution with the ball minimizing turnovers is smart basktball by the numbers. Only a player with a 6/1 A/passing TO (excludes ballhandling turnovers) is really beating the cost of his passing turnovers. Ridnour is currently at 4-1 on that, Watson is at 5.5. Daniels at a bit over 5 this season after being at 9-1 last season and 8-1 in 04-05. ridnour in 04-05 was at 5-1 so he wasn’t in same league on this and has slipped not improved.
February 1st, 2008 at 8:01 pm
But part of this is who you are passing to and both players had better shooters in 04-05 than Ridnour has here in Seattle this year. Daniels has a good offensive cast to get the ball to in Washington.
February 1st, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Slight correction: Wiz are slightly below average shooters but above average on offense overall. It is a better situation there than here by far. But how much Daniels passing helped created that and how much he gets credit off the shooting of others is the much debated chicken & egg stuff.
February 1st, 2008 at 8:56 pm
I’m trying to follow your reasoning, Crow. I definitely agree that it is a chicke/egg type of argument. Obviously, I think it is clear which comes first — the shot. But many don’t.
One way of trying to see is looking at players who switch teams. Does their fg% go up or down depending on what point guard they play with? Regarding Jason Kidd, you will find that Vince Carter’s fg% was almost the same playing in Toronto as it has been playin in N.J. with Kidd. Kenyon Martin’s fg% has risen slightly since he left N.J. and is playing without Kidd in Denver. Looking at those 2 significant players, I think you would have to conclude that playing with Kidd has virtually no affect on a player’s fg%, which supports my argument, of course.
I don’t really understand where you get the idea that an assist is worth .16 point. Someone actually watches films of games and judges “good passes” versus “non-good” passes, and then figures out what percentage of shots go in or miss from each type of pass? Is that how it works? If so, doesn’t that seem just a tad subjective, completely dependent on one person’s opinion of what a “good pass” is or what a “non-good” pass is.
Or is that number derived some other way?
February 1st, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Boston trade often described as 3 for 1 but Glen Davis some value for Boston. And Ainge obviously made good use of that open roster spot. West hasn’t been great value here. Without the trade Sonics GM would have had another roster spot to fill and get value from, perhaps more value. Like from Landry.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:08 pm
Dipper 82 games did have a group of fans watch tape and record all shots that had a pass that lead immediately to a shot and would have counted as an assist if the shot went in. It wasn’t categorizing passes as good or bad just as potentially eligible for an assist using the official scorers criteria if the shot went in. They did that to be able to judge how valuable passing was and the finding was 8% better on FG% or the equivalent of .16 pts per shot. As you’ve noted an assist means the shot went in. The study tried to level the comparison with self created shots.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:14 pm
I noticed that Chamberlin’s first NBA championship was the first of his monster assist years. I’d be interested in hearing your take on that.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:19 pm
But to be fair I see it was his best shooting year as of that date and really best ever except for his last season.
His 72 championship was his 3rd best shooting season.
Obviously his shooting mattered a lot.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Well, that is an interesting study, but I take it with a grain of salt.
The first red flag is “a group of fans.” Now, what exactly are their qualifications? If a group of official scorers did that, then it might have a little more validity. Even official scorers are subjective. I have heard people claim that John Stockton got credited with a lot of assists in games played in Utah that he would not have gotten an assist for in road arenas. I see plays in games in which players are credited with assists even though the shooter dribbled 2 times after catching the pass before shooting. Even with official scorers assists are pretty subjective. Having a “group of fans” do this study does not give it much credibility, in my opinion.
In a study like that, just the long (half-court of longer) shots that players often take at the end of quarters when they get a defensive rebound with 2 seconds or less left on the clock and just throw the ball at the basket from the other end of the court would count as missed shots with no possible assist. If that happens in just every other quarter, that alone could affect this study.
In other words, I don’t put any credence in that study.
I think looking at how players shoot when they change teams is a better way of judging the effect a “superior” passer has on his teammate’s shooting %.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:23 pm
That first championship 66-67 76ers were by far the best shooting team in small league aided by Wilt’s shooting, threat of shooting and passing. The year before they were just a touch over average on team shooting. I think Wilt’s heavy committment in 66-67 to passing did help to some degree.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:27 pm
I agree with you that assistmakers can be overhyped and your recommendation to look at players with the great passer and without is a good one.
Yes the 82games study done by hardcore fans / stat geeks should be used with caution but whether passing added 8% to FG% or just 4%, 6% or 10% I personally am inclined to believe that passing adds some value.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:36 pm
But as I showed earlier passing might add 4 pts a game thru assists over a team with no assists. Obiously a rebound here, turnover there can add up to a value equivalent to 4 pts pretty easily.
As can a team just making 2 more shots out of 80-85- the equivalent of shooting 3% better on all shots. Or maybe 3 more trips to the line.
A guy shooting 17 shots shooting 40% eFG instead of say 55% (a level you might expect from a #1 option) effectively wipes out the value of all team assists.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:43 pm
I don’t want to spend too much more time on this tonight, Crow. I have not even read this morning’s paper yet.
But you got me by mentioning Wilt.
I will just say that the ‘66-67 76ers champs led the league in fg% by a wide margin, shooting .483 as a team. The next-best shooting team that year shot .453, a very large margin. That year Wilt shot .683!!!! while averaging 24 pts. The next-best shooter on that team was Chet Walker at .488. Walker was a very good player also. Every other player on that team shot below the team’s fg%. So, obviously, I think it was Wilt’s great shooting which was responsible for that championship. Of course, most of Wilt’s “shots” were dunks, but so what? If nobody can stop you from dunking, then you are a dominant player, just like a young Shaq.
The ‘72 Lakers championship team shot .490 from the field, second-best to Milwaukee’s .498. L.A. won 69 games that year to Milwaukee’s 63. Wilt shot .649, but he averaged only 15 pts. The other players on the Lakers who averaged more points than Wilt were: Gail Goodrich .487; Jerry West .477; and Jim McMillan .482. McMillan replaced a retired Elgin Baylor 9 games into the season. Baylor was shooting only .433 at the time. L.A. replaced a .433 shooter with a .482 shooter, and immediately went on a record 33-game winning streak.
By the way, Jabbar shot .574 and averaged 35 pts/gm that year for the 63-win Bucks. But the Lakers beat the Bucks in the playoffs. (One of my all-time favorite plays occurred in that playoff series when Wilt actually blocked a Jabbar sky-hook, leading to an L.A. breakaway fastbreak layup. The only time I ever saw a true block on Jabbar’s sky hook — a block after the ball left Jabbar’s hand).
So I would say it was Wilt’s great shooting that was his most important skill. He was also a great shot-blocker, which I also value highly, as it lowers the opponents’ fg%. The Laker’s opponents shot only .432 that year, second best to Milwaukee’s .420.
You can easily see why L.A. and Milwaukee both won over 60 games that season, by shooting so much bettern than their opponents. Mainly due to Wilt and Jabbar, at both ends of the court. The two best players in NBA history: Wilt and Jabbar.
Wilt was a good passer, but that certainly ranked below his great shooting and shot-blocking, and even rebounding, in my opinion.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:48 pm
C Billups offers an outstanding balance of scoring on good shooting, strong assists and defense. Kidd offered more assists and good defense til recently but lousy shooting. T Parker gives decent shooting / good scoring threat, good defense and less passing.
Billups and Parker got titles largely because they had better casts- who shot better. Kidd’s teammates didnt shoot well enough to take even more advantage of his superior passing and the excellent defense. But he got close.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:58 pm
I agree with that Dipper. Assistmaking is down the list of what is most important and shot making and defense are certainly the top 2.
But I will note the top 6 other 76ers all improved their FG% from 65-66 season to the 66-67 where Wilt decided to pass a lot.
Using your (and others) method of multiplying shot attempts by difference in a player’s shooting % and league average to show the value of the player’s shooting Wilt raised his own net impact by about 35% from 65-66 to 66-67 despite going frm 25 shots to 14 and also raised the impact of his teammates by playing some role in the next 6 guys shooting better. That was a win-win.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:03 pm
I just did the math on the 67 title team. When you subtract Wilt’s 785-1150 shooting from the team’s 3912-8103 shooting, you get the rest of the team shooting 3127-7053, which is .443. That is a full .040 percentage points that Wilt increased the 6ers team fg% just with his great shooting. The rest of the team shot .443, which would have been tied for 5th in a 10-team league. With Wilt’s great shooting the 6ers were first in shooting by a huge margin. So yeah, I think Wilt’s great shooting was the main factor for that team. Sad they did not keep defensive stats in those days, either team stats or any blocked shot numbers. I know Wilt blocked a ton of shots. But nobody knows exactly how many.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Wilt raised his own net impact by raising his FG% from 54% to 68%. Cutting usage improved efficiency for him and the rest of team.
Teams should seek the team optimum distribution of shots. With Durant if the team optimum is 25 shots I have no objection - if it is the team optimum. If the team optimum is 20, 17, 14 that is what I’d choose. Wilt shot 14 times a game in 66-67 and they won when they hadnt when he shot 25 times a game. But every situation is different.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:08 pm
I agree with that for the most part. That is why I don’t rate players too much by scoring average. fg% is much more important than scoring average. Although, if you have 2 great shooters, the more points they score, the better. On the other hand, with 2 terrible shooters, the more points they score, the WORSE they are.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:09 pm
They did make the Finals in 65-66 so it wasn’t like his shift made it go from night to day. They had Wilt and all the things he did. But it may have been the final push over the top. At least it looks that way on quick look at the stats.
But good chatting with your Dipper on this topic and now I am off to other things.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Thanks for the conversation, Crow. Have a good evening.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:29 pm
You too Dipper.
I can’t help but add one more post.
I mentioned the relative strengths of Billups, Parker and Kidd. Billups probably the most complete. All 3 were strong on at least 2 of shooting, shot defense and passing. If you can get a PG strong on all 3 great, 2 very good. Just one and that is an issue.
Watson and Ridnour appeared for a time as being different because of Luke’s passing or shooting or Watson’s defense. But right now they have turned out more similar than different and neither is strong on 2 or 3 of these 3 PG qualities.
If West were strong on shooting and defense that might be enough to overcome less than ideal PG passing. But his shooting is off. His defense is the best of the three (closely followed by Ridnour) but his A/TO is weak. A third not sufficiently satisfactory mix on performance.
Sonics need a PG strong on 2 qualities and consistently strong on them. On 3 qualities would be awesome as it was with Payton. But right now I’d take two.
February 3rd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
The Big Dipper said: “OK. Here’s something to ponder for all you “the pass makes the shot” theorists.
New Jersey is SECOND WORST in the NBA in FG% this season (43.3%), and SECOND WORST in scoring (93.6). Yet New Jersey is THIRD BEST in assists. And Jason Kidd is THIRD HIGHEST in assists among all players.
So how do you explain that, if passing and assists means high fg%? The third-highest assist team has the second-lowest fg%. You sure a lot of assists/game means a high fg%?”
I can explain it easy. It means you’ve got Jason Kidd on your team.