20 Second Defense
Posted on Tuesday, February 26th, 2008 at 8:26 am by Brian Robinson
Time to talk DEFENSE.
Hard to defend our team right now. I know they stink. Still I see improvements when I watch them play. Oddly enough it seems to me like the majority of our problems are related to offensive execution, not defensive.
“What?” You’re going to ask. “You must have been overseas if you think this team doesn’t have soft defense…”
Part of it is just the contrast. As I see us getting progressively better defensively it really makes me realize how wretched we were before. Lets face it, when you go from “Piss Poor” to just “Poor” it is an improvement.
So here is my theory: There is defense, and there is 20 second defense
Defense, taken as a whole is what we see the San Antonio Spurs play. It is stifling and effective. It is also amazingly consistent for the entire 24 second possession. 20 second defense is what we get from the SuperSonics today. For approximately 20 seconds out of every 24 second shot clock their defensive intensity and execution are remarkably improved from past years. They are tenacious, and driven on the defensive end of the court. Unfortunately the 24 second clock has a tendancy to be unforgiving. During the remaining 4 seconds, which does not necessarily occur at the end of the posession we see defensive lapses that allow a cut to the basket, an easy rebound, or a bucket that just looks completely unguarded.
This seems to be a problem that originates largely because at any given time we have no choice but to have 1-3 non-defensive oriented players on the court at any given time. One of them, if not more, are simply bound to make a critical mistake and blow the defensive scheme out of the water. I can see how, as an organization, we just need to stock with guys who are able to be consistent with their defense, not making critical mistakes that undermine everything else the team is doing.
So the questions I have are this. Am I imagining the 20 second improvements? Is the team really looking better? If so does that matter at all? Does 20 seconds of good defense indicate progress when they still make laughable mistakes that are costing them points, games, and wins.
I want to tell you all that good arena/ownership news is right around the corner. I am hearing it and I can feel it. Unfortunately I’ve heard the false promises too many times and am skeptical. I’ll tell you that right now I feel really, really good about our chances. Keep up the good work.
Your thoughts?
February 26th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Defense like offense starts in the middle. The Sonics are a bunch of jump shooters that don’t shoot all that well. The long rebounds turn into run outs. The guards can be beat and there is nothing in the middle to defend the rim. No half court offense and no half court defense. San Antonio and ALL of the other playoff contenders have bigs in the paint that can defend the rim. We have nothing. Now that Thomas and Wally are gone I will be surprized if we will 20 games.
“I want to tell you all that good arena/ownership news is right around the corner. ”
It has been a very long corner. Even optimists like myself are tired of waiting and losing hope for any action by the local politicians.
February 26th, 2008 at 8:56 am
I feel you man. We are however in crunch time. There are deadlines with our legislative session, the OKC vote, and the NBA owners meeting that will force at least some of this public soon.
I’ve been promised new news for montths. There is reason this time to believe that it really is coming.
February 26th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Patches - I agree.
I’m sort of intrigued by Petro’s recent propensity for blocking shots. I’d always thought of him as a tall power forward but not a shot blocker - more of a Kevin Willis type. But if he can actually start blocking shots, that could be big. I’d like to see Sene get some playing time as well.
We certainly can’t bank on Swift any more.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:15 am
i can understand why seattle play zone defense, all teams kill us with three points shoots. Our centers sucks but you cant defense like that.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:32 am
- I do agree that our defense is actually ahead of our offense now…but that is because our offense is on a whole new level of suck…
- W/R/T defense I am not as impressed as most people are with the improvements. When I went to the Utah game you could CLEARLY see that the Jazz weren’t even interested in playing the first three quarters of the game. They knew when they needed to turn it on they could and pull out the victory. This allows the Sonics defense to appear to be good for certain streatches (while the other team is screwing around). However, if the other team really needs to score they can do it at will…
February 26th, 2008 at 11:34 am
To add to my point…this is the biggest difference between this year and last year. Last year teams still new they had to try a little harder because the Sonics might actually outscore them and get a victory. This year they know they don’t have to try as hard because the team’s offense is horrible, and this is why we are seeing lower defensive output numbers…
February 26th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Sonics team offense and defense by the shot clock breaks can be seen here.
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708SEA3.HTM
Sonics like to play a bit quick so they outscore opponents in first 10 seconds of shot clock.
By comparison opponents shoot better FG% in every part of the shot clock and outscore Sonics in every period after first 10 seconds and the amount after 16 and 20 seconds is high.
Shooting % declining throughout the shot clock is typical. Teams aren’t shooting great at end of shot clock against Sonics in abstract but they are doing well relative to what normally happens at that time.
But scoring off fouls and offensive putbacks are bigger issues with Sonics defense than FG% allowed. That probably does tend to show up as scoring later in shot clock but 82games doesnt give that breakout publically.
Sonics points allowed pretty even across quarters but slightly higher in 2nd quarter.
Sonics win record is about the same at low, medium and high pace but team defensive efficiency is actually best at high pace this season by 3-4 pts. Maybe scramble makes other teams efficient against us.
Team offensive is actually best at slow pace by 2 pts a game over fast with the compromise medium being the worst.
Put it together team point differential is slightly better (less bad) playing fast (lose by 5) than slow (lose by 6) and again the compromise is the worst (lose by 11). But none are good yet.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:37 am
should be in above post …
Maybe scramble pace makes other teams “less” efficient against us.
(Takes them out of disciplined offense.)
February 26th, 2008 at 11:42 am
“i can understand why seattle play zone defense, all teams kill us with three points shoots. Our centers sucks but you cant defense like that.”
Easy answer. If we played man D…….. we’d get crushed down low one on one. We’d also get killed on the perimeter.
Defense is a combination of the perimeter and the middle. I don’t think defense necessarily starts in the middle. If that were the case than a majority of teams in the L would be in trouble…….considering the center position is hard to fill. Look at how long we have been looking for a center. It definitely helps to have a big man, but we all know they don’t grow on trees. But if you put the best defensive big man in the middle for our team with the current personel…….I still don’t think we would be that good because of our lack of perimeter D. That one big man would be constantly in foul trouble.
Active perimeter D/ball pressure, which we also lack, can mask the lack of presence in the middle. But we don’t do that either.
Therefore we have what we have.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Right now play fast or slow is about a toss up.
Presti and PJ need to make a choice on style, the same choice and pursuit it for awhile.
Playing fast improves the defensive efficency number perhaps for the reason Myk provides. It isn’t the best offense and can’t be justified strongly on that though that is the way the coaches try to sell it.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Yao Ming is out for the season with a stress fracture in his foot.
Ouch.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:48 am
I was a little amazed to see that Durant has the worse +/- on the team and yet now that Wally is gone he is the only player that does better then his opponent….
February 26th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Collison, Green and Gelly set a nice tone on defense. Others don’t seemed overly concerned or they double the post at incorrect times, leaving easier baskets available.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Play fast on offense you’d want low turnovers tendency, confident/reliable shooters, free throw getters. Things in short supply here. Improve those team talent levels and maybe you can make it work.
Play fast on defense you want to avoid fouls, grab defensive boards and go, maybe get more turnovers forced. A shotblocker would be nice. Zone and play fast don’t seem like such a great match to me but I havent seen defensive efficency numbers broken out by type of defense played. Hopefully Sam and PJ get that calculated and pay attention to it.
Try to play this way without above average talent in these areas, I don’t see it working out.
But that is true with any strategy. Got to have above average talent.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Sometimes we play slow….sometimes we play quick
Either way its not very good!
February 26th, 2008 at 11:56 am
One disadvantage to a team like the Sonics playing slow is that its hard to make a comeback when you slow it down. It plagues WSU right now. If you play a slow down style and get down to an athletic run and gun team……..its pretty much game over. Especially for a team with a shaky offense like ours.
February 26th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
“I was a little amazed to see that Durant has the worse +/- on the team and yet now that Wally is gone he is the only player that does better then his opponent….”
Durant does better than his opponent at what?
Yahoo sports calls Durant a “guard-forward”, which I think is pretty accurate. You can see how Durant compares so far this season to the other “guard-forwards” in the NBA at this link:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/stats/byposition?pos=GF&conference=NBA&year=season_2007&sort=21
As of today, Durant is 28th in fg% among; this group;
Durant is 36th in 3-point % among this group;
Durant is 18th in total rebounds among this group;
You can look up any other stat you want to by clicking on that stat at the top of the chart to see the players listed in order in that stat.
February 26th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Petro and Sene need to learn how to shift most of their focus towards locking down the paint. And tonight should be an interesting game as Watson and Marshall aren’t expected to play.
February 26th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Durant is a guard-forward this year a la T-Mac, but add some more physical and mental attributes over the course of his career in Seattle and Durant may end up like Dirk Nowitzki…ya never know.
February 26th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Is Brent staying, opting out or is he being shopped for value?
February 26th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
“As of today, Durant is 28th in fg% among; this group;
Durant is 36th in 3-point % among this group;
Durant is 18th in total rebounds among this group;”
Durant is 19
February 26th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Durant does better than his opponent at what?
Durant OWN production: 16.8
Durant OPP production: 14.9
Net: +1.9
Similarly…your boy Wilcox:
OWN Production: 18.5
OPP Production: 18.7
Just an interesting set of numbers. Ridnour is -5.6 NET production and yet has the best +/- on the team for players who have played 10%+ minutes.
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708SEA.HTM
Way to cherry pick more stats by the way…always love to see it.
He’s #1 in b/pg, #11 in s/pg and #3 in FT%…that guy is going to be an all-star!
February 26th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
phenom Barry was waived to accomodate the Cavs trade to accomodate budget savings.
“Durant does better than his opponent at what?”
Blocks, rebounds by a fraction, not fouling and taking more shots.
http://www.82games.com/0708/07SEA4C.HTM
February 26th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Brian-Thanks for trying to keep the positive vibe going here, greatly appreciated. I too am feeling optimistic and after all this time, I mean I can wait a few more months and public sentiment around the country has seemed to go our way, at least that’s what i’m seeing.
On a seperate note- many thanks to Kurt Thomas while he was here and for all his work with turning Petro around, too bad Swift didn’t really get in on a lot of that.
February 26th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Talk about defense all you want but I see the Warriors dropping at least 110 points on Seattle. Luke and Kevin are going to slow down Baron Davis and Monte Ellis?
February 26th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Durant is much stronger on per game measures than he is on per 48 minute measures.Neither per game or per 48 minutes stats should stand alone as testimony for or against. A measure of a player is best understood from awareness / blend of the two.
February 26th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Talk about defense all you want but I see the Warriors dropping at least 110 points on Seattle. Luke and Kevin are going to slow down Baron Davis and Monte Ellis?
- Isn’t that what they do against all teams??
February 26th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Durant Leads our team in Steals and Blocks. What does that say about the defensive “wizz” that Earl is or about our centers? Or does it say Durant’s freakish length gets him those things as a rookie and when he is “a man” he will be even better at it. I think Durant will be tough to stop from scoring and in the future will be hard to score upon. I just think of some of the spectacular blocks on the like of T-Mac and the fact that he blocks guards with his ELBOW at times.
February 26th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
“You can see how Durant compares so far this season to the other “guard-forwards” in the NBA at this link:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/stats/byposition?pos=GF&conference=NBA&year=season_2007&sort=21
As of today, Durant is 28th in fg% among; this group;
Durant is 36th in 3-point % among this group;
Durant is 18th in total rebounds among this group;”
Not bad for a rookie. If anything it’s kind of funny that even with his shot selection he’s still top 30 among G/Fs.
February 26th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Tied for #1 in blocks out of that group also. #3 in FT% and 11th Steals per game. Nice for a 2/3 that is only 19. Cup half full!!
February 26th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Well I maybe taking this discussion somewhere else… like mentioned earlier defense starts and the middle allowing guards to defend the perimeter. What are our options? We will not be under the cap until after next season so scratch FA leaving only the draft…. I personally want us to take D-Rose, but we currently have the 3rd pick that would mean Brook Lopez. I have seen him play and was impressed, but not 3rd pick in the draft impressed. Roy Hibbert is also out their and maybe their from the mid to late part of the 1st round?
Ps Petro may turn into a solid back up…..
February 26th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Steals are basically a meaningless stat.
FT% is good, but Luke has had great ft% also. So what?
The best thing about Durant is probably the number of FTA he has. That is impressive.
One blocked shot per game is not very significant. Blocked shots are really important for the big guys that are getting 3 or more per game. Those guys “change” a lot of shots, also. Durant gets some blocks by surprising shooters out on the perimiter. He is not inside closing down the middle like the great shot-blocking centers.
As far as being high in “field-goal attempts per game.” That is a joke. That is neither good nor bad in and of itself. Anyone can take a lot of shots. Flip Murray could take as many shots per minute as anyone else. Did that make Murray a good player?
As a matter of fact, the more shots Durant takes the more he HURTS the team, since he misses 60% of his shots.
“Durant OWN production: 16.8
Durant OPP production: 14.9
Net: +1.9″
Any rating system which pretends to quantify what some player’s opponents have done against him is a joke. Especially whent the Sonics play zone defense much of the time. How can anyone say who any player on the Sonics is “matched up against”, when they are in a zone defense? That is just flat-out stupid.
Is that according to the system which gives a player a higher rating if he goes 6-30 than if he goes 3-15? If so, that is a completely worthless system. Taking a lot of shots does not make someone a good player. Any system which rewards a player for taking a lot of shots, and missing most of them, is completely worthless. You need to stop looking at those rating systems if you want to know the good players from the bad players.
February 26th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
I feel stupider for having read that Dipper congrats.
I don’t skip AK’s writings because at least he entertains me, this complete cherry picking of stats to make things meaningful simply because YOU decide they are is lame, annoying and getting to the point of grating on my last nerve.
We get tha you think only one thing is important, go bore someone else with this bullshit.
February 26th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
“Is that according to the system which gives a player a higher rating if he goes 6-30 than if he goes 3-15?”
All other stats being equal, you are correct that a player who shoots six for thirty will have a higher PER than a player who shoots three for fifteen.
February 26th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
“Steals are basically a meaningless stat.”
I used to think similarly, but like you I was wrong. High steal numbers don’t always equate to good defense, but they aren’t meaningless. A steal both takes a possession away from the opponent and provides an incremental possession for the stealing team. A turnover is the same thing, only reversed. So if you believe steals are meaningless then turnovers must also be meaningless. Raise your hand if you believe that turnovers are a meaningless stat.
February 26th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
“As far as being high in “field-goal attempts per game.” That is a joke. That is neither good nor bad in and of itself. Anyone can take a lot of shots. Flip Murray could take as many shots per minute as anyone else. Did that make Murray a good player?”
I aggree with all of this, but to discount that Durant is outplaying his opponent while also playing out of position is kind of nitpicking stats. Oh well, everyone on this site does that with the exclusion of Crow.
February 26th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
I wasn’t praising Durant’s high field goal attempts.
I just reported it. I’ve been critical of that a good amount and didn’t feel a need to say more on that right now.
I didnt say it then but I will now Durant loses matchup on assists and turnovers by large margins. Not good signs for him at SG position or for team with him in that slot which is important for those qualities. The weak floor game affects not only Durant’s PER but more importantly team offensive efficency and probably by more than the stats suggests (just as blocks are usually accompanied by uncounted shot changes, few assists and high turnovers are probably accompanied by more passes than lead to other trouble).
February 26th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
“I wasn’t praising Durant’s high field goal attempts.
I just reported it. I’ve been critical of that a good amount and didn’t feel a need to say more on that right now.”
I know, just saying that unlike myself and others on here, you usually post statistics whether or not they support your assumptions.
February 26th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
“SG and SF are interchangeable” it is said. But ballhandling and passing responsibilities tend to be higher at SG. Either Durant improves on those aspects or that will be on the list of reasons for moving him to SF.
February 26th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
SG and SF are interchangeable the most on shooting and they can be switched in offensive play design if you want but unless Durant develops starter level SG floorgame then the stakes for that at SF are even higher and Green apparently offered promise of that in Presti’s eyes but Green is so far below average on assists and turnovers for forwards, and even further from the standard for SGs. Gelabale is off too. Wilkins was a better wing match on this specific aspect but not th esolution longterm of course. If Durant is not SF then find somebody who fills the specific role required of a starting wing playing alongside him. Right now Presti has not satisfactorily filled that slot. I havent heard much talk of Sonics using a draft asset to fill that spot well. Of course it is just one of many weaknesses in the talent pool / design.
February 26th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Is that according to the system which gives a player a higher rating if he goes 6-30 than if he goes 3-15? If so, that is a completely worthless system. Taking a lot of shots does not make someone a good player. Any system which rewards a player for taking a lot of shots, and missing most of them, is completely worthless. You need to stop looking at those rating systems if you want to know the good players from the bad players.
- You need to stop thinking that if YOU decide one stat is more important than another it some how makes this a universal belief. The amount of cherry picking you do is just absolutely stunning…Im sure there is some basketball knowledge in that brain of yours, but the things you do to support your arguments just invalidates it all and makes it a waste of time. Gratz…
February 26th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
I try to be forthright balloholic. Mostly I try to engage in consideration of complexity.
In many arguments here both sides get fleshed out and there is merit on both sides. When taking a pro or con stance you don’t “have to” be the one to raise the good arguments of the other side if that is what you are engaged in.
One way or the other it still usually comes out.
February 26th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Hey Crow. Can you do me a favor? Can you give me the season average for these things:
pts/game
fga/game
fta/game
That is for the NBA, league-wide. Or for starting players. Whatever you think is more relevant for rating players. Or whatever is available. It can be either for this season up to date, or for last season in its entirety.
Then I can try to dig up my old formula for rating players and show these guys what a real rating system shows for Durant, and anyone else they want to compare him to.
Thanks.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Hmmm…I didn’t know Crow was our stat slave…I’ll have to remember that next time I want to make a point…
February 26th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Here is another reason why I don’t think steals and blocked shots mean much, particularly for Durant.
Durant is averaging 1 steal per game. That has him ranked 11th among forward/guards. He is tied with 7 other forward/guards at 1 steal per game. There are 7 other guard/forwards tied for 28th in the league in steals, at 0.7 steals per game.
So, in steals per game, the difference between ranking 11th, and ranking 28th, is 0.3 steals per game. You really think 0.3 steals per game is significant?
By comparison, the 11th best rebounds per game is 5.1. The 28th best in rebounding is 3.4 rebounds per game. So the difference between 11th and 28th in rebounding is 1.7 rebounds per game.
1.7 rebounds per game is a lot more significant than 0.3 steals per game.
In other words, there are not many steals per game, compared to rebounds per game. So there is not much difference in how many steals per game there are between the guys who are at the top, and guys who are at the bottom in steals. There is a much larger difference between the top and bottom in rebounding.
Get it?
The same is true with blocked shots. There aren’t that many blocks per game, especially among guard/forwards. The largest number of blocks/game among guard/forwards is only ONE! That is durant. How big a deal is one block per game?
The #11 shot blocker among guard/forwards is 0.5 blocks/game. The #28 shot blocker is at 0.2. That is a difference of only 0.3 blocks/game between #11 and #28. Not much difference, in my opinion.
There are just not that many blocks or steals in a game. The NBA leader in blocks is at 4/game. The NBA leader in steals is at only 2.7/game. the NBA leader in rebounds is at 14.5 /game.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
When I compare the 11th best rebounder to the 28th best rebounder above, that is among guard-forwards.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
“SG and SF are interchangeable” it is said. But ballhandling and passing responsibilities tend to be higher at SG. Either Durant improves on those aspects or that will be on the list of reasons for moving him to SF.”
How so? Both are wing positions. Its not like D-Wilkens and Durant are getting set up in different spots. Is Wilkens getting posted up more because he is the SF? I’d argue no.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
The Big Dipper,
There are different things that might help, here is my first stab:
medians for top 30 players (pretty close to “starters”) per position (since they tend to have different roles & opportunities) and per 48 minutes
PG about 22pts 18 FGAs 5.5 FTAs
SG about 25pts 20FGAs 6 FTAs
SF about 24.5pts 19FGAs 6 FTAs
PF about 24pts 20FGAs 7 FTAs
C about 20pts 16.5FGAs 6.5 FTAs
All players might be
about 23.5pts 19FGAs 6.5 FTAs
Means for starter or all players and “per game” could be computed but would take more work.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
It just seems that when people analyze Durant, the forget that he’s a 19 year-old rookie learning a new position and carrying the load for a terrible team with no legitimate starting center or point guard.
When you watch him play, all of the skills are there. He has the stroke to shoot a high % from 3-point range. He can go left or right with his dribble. He’s got great size and length, and he has good vision as a passer.
His biggest weakness right now is his immature body. He avoids contact, and has trouble playing through it when it comes. He misses a lot of shots around the basket that he’ll probably be making in a year or two once he learns how to deal with the NBA’s level of physicality. The fact that he gets to the line as much as he does is a tribute to his persistence.
Be patient with the guy! He’s just learning how to play the NBA game. It’s ludicrous to analyze his stats now and assume that he’s locked in to shooting a terrible % and having a terrible A/TO ratio.
He’s going to have a whole offseason to work on his body, refine his game, and find his role. And the team is going to have a whole offseason to build it’s roster and it’s scheme around his strengths and weaknesses.
Give it time, guys. He’s an amazing talent who is just scratching the surface.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
I’ve sometimes been willing to a ’stat slave” and have sometimes been a slave to stats but I may do the former less in the future and will try to be the later less in the future too.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
League average raw FG% is 46%, eFG% 50%, FT75%, TS% 54%.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
“It just seems that when people analyze Durant, the forget that he’s a 19 year-old rookie learning a new position and carrying the load for a terrible team with no legitimate starting center or point guard.”
Their can either be a glass half empty……or there can be a glass half full. Its just funny how some people take the first stance and go to extremes. Dude is 19.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Dipper that data is all this season to date.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Thanks, Crow. I can work with those numbers. The league average of fg%, efg% and ts% are interesting, also.
I don’t mean to try to get you to do stuff for me. It’s just that you seem to know exactly where to find anything, and I don’t. If I knew where to find that, I surely would have looked it up myself.
I used to buy those magazines every year that had the prior year’s stats, but I don’t do that any more. So I sort of lost touch with were to find a lot of things. I’m not as familiar with the internet sites as you are.
But you are definitely the stats expert on this site, so it is natural that I would adress stat questions towards you.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Durant at 21 then 23 then 27 will be increasingly fairer measures.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
I bet in 2 years Durant is shooting 47%/37%/87% and putting up over 30PPG.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s also getting 7 Reb, 4 Asst, 2 Blk and 2 Steals per game.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
I didnt mind Dipper. I try to help where & when I can and point out the resources I use too. This time I used material from hoopsstats.com.
February 26th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
“So, in steals per game, the difference between ranking 11th, and ranking 28th, is 0.3 steals per game. You really think 0.3 steals per game is significant?”
Of course it is. That’s 24 steals over an entire season, 24 lost/gained possessions, may not be a large number but insignificant? No.
“There are just not that many blocks or steals in a game. The NBA leader in blocks is at 4/game. The NBA leader in steals is at only 2.7/game. the NBA leader in rebounds is at 14.5 /game. ”
Yeah, most possessions end with either a made or missed basket…so naturally there’ll be more rebounds than blocks or steals. That doesn’t make steals insignificant … Rebounds, turnovers, steals, and shooting efficiency all contribute to player performance. we can disagree about how to weight those contributions but they’re all significant.
If you have a guard averaging 3.5 steals a game that’s 287 forced turnovers per season, 287 more possessions and 287 more opportunities for FGAs. That’s almost three entire games worth of possessions and scoring opportunities coming from one player doing one thing. You have to grab more rebounds to have the same effect because defensive rebounds don’t equate to taking a possession away from the other team and giving it to your own.
A lot of people criticize Dave Berri’s system for overvaluing rebounds … in his system points, rebounds and steals are all weighted equally.
February 26th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
I agree with Dipper’s point that higher frequency stat categories matter more than small ones and they do in the rollups (PER or otherwise). And shooting is the biggest category for most players, the exceptions being players designated for high rebounding or assist or defensive duties.
February 26th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
“I agree with Dipper’s point that higher frequency stat categories matter more than small ones and they do in the rollups (PER or otherwise). ”
There’s a big difference between that point and saying they’re meaningless though. The 90s Sonics teams are the perfect example of why steals aren’t a meaningless stat … what did those teams completely suck ass at? Rebounding. How did they win so many games? Because they were getting an insane amount of extra possessions by forcing turnovers. How were they forcing turnovers? Primarily steals.
February 26th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
As Steve says for a competitive team every tiny little improvement on team stat matters. And one player can have a pretty big impact.
When you are “as far off as Sonics” are currently it would a lot of changes to add up to enough to change the results.
Still to get to league midpoint on scoring efficiency team would need to shoot just 2.5 higher on FG% (make 2 more shots a game on average). You could say that is a small change or a big one depending on your perspective.
I won’t tick off the other stats. Even for a team way out of it you can get back in it if you achieve enough changes.
February 26th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
True Steve.
The size of the stat category might not matter as much as the size of the edge produced compared to average for that category and the points equivalent of that.
Gain 2 points per game compared to average from any category would have equal impact though it would take being higher above average in some categories percentagewise than others to achieve that 2 pt edge.
February 26th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
I developed a method to turn differences in the main team stats compared to league average into additions and deductions to expected team wins for season. I haven’t run that this year. I don’t know if I will. It probably would show a bit more than half of the losing is being caused by the poor shooting and the rest from everything else.
February 26th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
There is regression analysis that shows that gain in some stats are more / less important on average to actual winning of games based on study of league games than their apparent points equivalent. To some extent this picks up of related uncounted activity- shot changes, ball saves, etc. My method can be run either way- apparent points equivalent or weighted by “impact”.
If you want you could see what I mean in this thread from late last summer
http://tinyurl.com/2brrme
February 26th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
If running it quickly I did it right then weighting the “4 factors” as suggested by former Sonics stat consultant Dean Oliver based on their winning impact according to regression analysis, the team for a 82 game season if they finished out the same as they sit in the stats currently would:
lose about 11 games to average (41 wins) because of poor shooting, (a proportion of loss responsiblity in line with what I estimated above)
3 games because of own turnovers,
2 games from going to the free throw line lightly,
and offensive rebounding would earn them a small fraction of an additional win for their slightly above average performance on that.
On defense their FG% allowed performance woud “win” 3 games compared to a 41 win team’s performance on this stat,
lack of forced turnovers would cost 6 wins,
slightly better than average defensive rebounding
would yield about half a win.
and lower than average fouling would earn about a win.
Add all these things up and you get the projected 24 win team.
February 26th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
I just hope the arena plan is released before the BOG meeting, can you provide info if that will at least happen???
February 26th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
There are just not that many blocks or steals in a game. The NBA leader in blocks is at 4/game. The NBA leader in steals is at only 2.7/game. the NBA leader in rebounds is at 14.5 /game.
- This is just such an odd way to look at things…I dont find TDs in football to be important beacuse there are so many more rushing yards out there. I don’t find HRs interesting because a player can just get so many more hits…obviously then by your logic Pts/game is the most important stat to you because that is what there is most of…
February 27th, 2008 at 1:38 am
Team defense? what team? the sonics are basically durant, green, and collison right now. everyone else are just leftovers from the allen/lewis era waiting to be traded or expiring contracts. We can start talking about a team after this year’s draft.