Lottery Countdown
Posted on Monday, May 19th, 2008 at 7:55 am by Brian Robinson
I cannot imagine any other scenario where we would have the second bet odds in the lottery and I would feel so little excitement. I’m just going to go out on a limb here…Memphis wins the lottery.
We haven’t talked draft much. Obviousy Derrick Rose is the coveted guy and the one who position wise really just fits our needs. Beasley just sends up huge red flags for me. I understand that what I am feeling is part of the nbadraft.net phenomenon where you take a player, pick a comparison from past years, and assume that they are exactly the same guy. Beasley was an animal in college and I should be thrilled to have him.
It is terrible, part of me that is really morbid hopes that we don’t get a top two pick just because at this point having another franchise centerpiece will cause Clay to simply hold on that much tighter.
An interesting blurb out of a Philly paper has the Sixers interested in Chris Wilcox. I can tell you that I could totally see something happening there if they truly have the ability to absorb part or all of Chris’ contract. I’m crossing my fingers against but being under the cap they have the ability to mitigate our teams losses and we all know that will be the big factor this year.
Will you watch the lottery?
May 19th, 2008 at 8:02 am
Hell yeah I’ll watch the lottery. Another franchise centerpiece will cause Nickels/Ceis/Gorton to fight that much harder too.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Also - fully expecting NY to get a top two pick. After this whole Stern/Bennett/Seattle debacle, I have lost all faith in the NBA’s integrity.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:25 am
if rose is gone with the first pick. do we take beasley and where would he fit
May 19th, 2008 at 8:36 am
Silly conspiracy theorists. Seriously, can we stop talking about the possibility of the lottery being fixed? There are other companies that would also have their reputations at stake than just the NBA in that case.
Also, if it were fixed, 1 and 2 would not have been in the Northwest last year.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:38 am
if rose is gone with the first pick. do we take beasley or trade down? would beasley start?
May 19th, 2008 at 8:45 am
“Silly conspiracy theorists. Seriously, can we stop talking about the possibility of the lottery being fixed? There are other companies that would also have their reputations at stake than just the NBA in that case.
Also, if it were fixed, 1 and 2 would not have been in the Northwest last year. ”
This is tongue in cheek, right?
May 19th, 2008 at 8:51 am
No… I’m actually serious. The lottery isn’t fixed.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:56 am
if it isnt fixed, then why is the NBA the only league that has a lottery system…
I want to see Derrick Rose, but like stated above, more reason for Bennett to Keep this team…
May 19th, 2008 at 9:01 am
I also would like to see the Lottery Live, no idea why its not, it would be good tv…
got to remember, Miami has a 25% a chance of getting #1, and 75% of being not #1
May 19th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Nice story about Durant & Beasley.
http://tinyurl.com/3wn734
May 19th, 2008 at 9:02 am
If you ask Durant, he will want the Sonics to pick Beasley. Read this: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sonics/
May 19th, 2008 at 9:05 am
If we are lucky enough to land the #1 pick, I wonder if Durant will successfully lobby the front office to select Beasley.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:17 am
1st pick: get Rose
2nd pick: get Beasley/work on a trade to get a PG for wilcox (maybe Memphis?)
3rd Pick: trade down?
May 19th, 2008 at 9:26 am
I don’t know what the 76′ers can offer for Wilcox?
They dont have any players worth taking, and they are projected to pick #16 in this years draft. Not very enticing.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Well, after reading that article, I would love to have Beasley on the squad. Putting a franchise player next to another franchise player that grew up as best friends?!? That’s great stuff right there.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Would be a nice retention mechanism if Durant is tempted to bolt to a bigger media market.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:32 am
I haven’t watch one NBA playoff. Doing that just gives in to Stern and Bennett. No I will not watch the draft lottery.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:33 am
If only to think about it briefly from conspiracy standpoint, it would have been wise to have #1 and #2 be Portland and Seattle last year. That way when the Sonics left with KD we would look south at up-and-coming Portland to root for.
I don’t know if I believe that it is rigged, but if I were to rig the lottery to get the Sonics out of Seattle I would have definitely made 1/2 go to Portland/Seattle last year.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Is there an athletic freak in this draft? Someone with tons of upside but doesn’t look too great right now?
May 19th, 2008 at 9:39 am
BTW - I wonder, if Memphis does go #1, if they’ll take Rose and ship out Conley or if they’ll take Beasely. Interesting choice for them…
May 19th, 2008 at 9:42 am
So how does one rig a lottery with no leakage and get reps from each of the lottery teams (who are viewing the ping pong balls) to go along with it?
May 19th, 2008 at 9:43 am
I’d personally like to see them trade down. Beasley is worth way more to a team that doesnt already have Green and Durant. And to take a PG that high seems iffy to me. PGs, IMO, are easier to come by via FA or trade than a big man. therefore I feel we could gain by trading down.
I like K-Love. The guy is a natural and has a ton of upside. My feeling is that he is much better than Hawes.
Who knows what this leadership (?) is capable of.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Samuel Dalembert might be a good target… maybe package Wilcox and Watson or something like that. Then we’d have a pretty good start to our roster:
Samuel Dalembert
Nick Collison
Jeff Green
Kevin Durant
Derrick Rose
Johan Petro
Luke Ridnour
May 19th, 2008 at 9:44 am
http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/100-05182008-1535745.html
#16 pick for Wilcox doesn’t seem to be enough.
But Presti likes draft picks and Bennett likes saving money.
Wilcox might be alright with 76ers but they’d probably need to move Evans. I can’t see him being taken back here but a 3 way trade would offer more options.
I’d look to see what kind of shape Herbert Hill and S Randolph are in.
What Philly does with Iggy is key. I wouldn’t break the bank for him.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:44 am
if it isnt fixed, then why is the NBA the only league that has a lottery system…
- Seriously…everyone who thinks the lottery is fixed is an absolute and complete idiot. They should lose their posting rights for at least a month for believing something so implausible.
Let’s see…what evidence do we have that the lottery isn’t fixed:
1) Two of the greatest college players of all time come out in a draft and end up in Portland and Seattle.
2) The draft is conducted in front of representatives of all 14 teams and representatives from various accounting firms.
3) The draft is done with ping pong balls and there are over 1,000 possible outocomes of the ping pong balls to control.
4) New York has not had a #1 since Patrick Ewing. Boston has not had a #1 pick in the lottery ever. The Los Angeles Clippers have only ever had one #1 picks. New York hasn’t even had a top 3 pick in the lottery.
5) So far, the lottery has sent Yao Ming to Houston (and not Golden St. ir New York) LeBron James to Cleveland (and not Chicago, New York or Los Angeles)
6) There is no reason for owners from other franchises to allow the lottery to be rigged. Why would the Memphis team “allow” the Knicks to win the lottery and draft Derrick Rose when Derrick Rose would sell them a ton of tickets? Everyone who saw the Q Arena in Cleveland on Friday saw how Cleveland suddenly has a packed house of 20,000 fans…all because of one player.
Since we all understand how messed up the NBA Business Model is we must understand that an NBA owner basically has to hope to get one of those top players and fill their Arenas to make money. In fact, it is almost more logical for the NBA to push their superstar players to smaller markets. The Knicks are always going to draw decent. There are 10 million customers to sell tickets too…Memphis on the otherhand really needs a superstar to generate excitement.
Therefore, the lottery is not rigged…the old envelope system way back in the day could’ve very well been rigged. But this new system does not allow for that. So PLEASE STOP…
May 19th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Sam - I believe his name might be Joey Dorsey
May 19th, 2008 at 9:48 am
?
May 19th, 2008 at 9:48 am
And by Sam K I mean SeeJ
May 19th, 2008 at 9:48 am
if the sonics miss out on rose, they should trade wilcox and picks to philadelphia for #16 overall and take augustin
May 19th, 2008 at 9:49 am
“So how does one rig a lottery with no leakage and get reps from each of the lottery teams (who are viewing the ping pong balls) to go along with it? ”
That’s easy. They do it the same way they did the 28-2 vote. Behind closed doors where Stern tells everybody what’s best for his league.
The problem with Stern is that he’s the type of guy who would take full credit for anything good the NBA has to offer. It’s all him.
But when the Donaghy scandal broke, suddenly he has nothing to do with HIS referees screening process.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:52 am
Hill or Randolph might be kickers in addition to a 1st now and maybe something else.
They should try to get good value for Wilcox.
He should generate multiple offers.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:53 am
I don’t know if I believe that it is rigged, but if I were to rig the lottery to get the Sonics out of Seattle I would have definitely made 1/2 go to Portland/Seattle last year.
- ????????????????????????????????????????????
May 19th, 2008 at 9:55 am
That’s easy. They do it the same way they did the 28-2 vote. Behind closed doors where Stern tells everybody what’s best for his league.
- Again….so the owners of Memphis are going to say…ya you are right I would rather not build the value of my team (that i am trying to sell by the way) by bringing in a great PG that could be a star of the league. Let James Dolan and the Knicks have that pick.
How can you not see how perposterous that is???
May 19th, 2008 at 9:56 am
If we get Beasley then the Philly trade might entail Wilcox for Thadeus Young and the Philly pick at 16. Then we would need to move Young. Young could fit in with Milwaukee. He has to be to be as good as the #6 player this year. Wilcox was originally a #8 pick in 2002. I like Wilcox better than all but two guys in this years draft. If Presti could pull all of this off we would wind up with Beasley, #6, #16 and #24.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:56 am
“3) The draft is done with ping pong balls and there are over 1,000 possible outocomes of the ping pong balls to control.”
Do you know what happens when some ping pong balls are heavier than others? It can put a big dent in those 1000 outcomes. It can definitely increase odds. Not saying it’s 100% fixed but easily could be slanted.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:58 am
#16 pick for Wilcox doesn’t seem to be enough.
But Presti likes draft picks and Bennett likes saving money.
- I would think that in a perfect world Presti would probably like to get Beasley at #1/#2 and Augestine at #16 for a starting line up of:
Augestine
Durant
Green
Beasley
Collison
May 19th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Dalambert for 3 years might be an attractive finishing piece for a team close but would be a high salary on a low win team under current management plan.
I don’t think Bennett/Presti pay a $10+ million player again until they try to get Durant to take it.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Do you know what happens when some ping pong balls are heavier than others? It can put a big dent in those 1000 outcomes. It can definitely increase odds. Not saying it’s 100% fixed but easily could be slanted.
- By that logic then they’d have the same outcome happening over and over and over again…how would they set it up so an outcome with the Knicks coming number one would happen only the first time…but then not having that same outcome keep occurring??
May 19th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Myk,
Speculating on the subject does not imply that we believe it. It’s just a basketball topic that was being discussed. Of course it’s implausible, but it’s also natural to have that mentality in a city whose sports franchises seem to continually disappoint. It’s the “there out to get us” pschosis.
Of course it’s silly to really disect the matter of rigging a draft, but that doesn’t make us “complete and utter idiots” worthy of having our posting rights revoked. Just some fun. That’s the idea, right?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Dalambert for 3 years might be an attractive finishing piece for a team close but would be a high salary on a low win team under current management plan.
I don’t think Bennett/Presti pay a $10+ million player again until they try to get Durant to take it.
- Agreed…plus taking on Dalemberts contract would kill the cap space they have been “supposedly” trying to create after next year.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:03 am
“- Again….so the owners of Memphis are going to say…ya you are right I would rather not build the value of my team (that i am trying to sell by the way) by bringing in a great PG that could be a star of the league. Let James Dolan and the Knicks have that pick.
How can you not see how perposterous that is??? ”
The owners share revenue. Not perpoterous at all. They’re all taken care of regardless.
How was it that the Lakers were going to trade Kobe or Odom for Gasol at the beginning of the year? Only to get him for free when it mattered more.(Bynum’s injury). I can tell you why. It was better for Davids league to have the possibility of a BOS/LA final. That trade was a glaring example of whats best for the league in Davids mind.
And you think Memphis is a good example?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:03 am
THANK YOU MYK!
May 19th, 2008 at 10:06 am
Of course it’s silly to really disect the matter of rigging a draft, but that doesn’t make us “complete and utter idiots” worthy of having our posting rights revoked. Just some fun. That’s the idea, right?
- It would be fine if people were saying it just for fun. But that is not the case….it has been brought up repeatedly the last few days. It just makes an outsider who would come to our site think we were crazy conspiracy theorists that should not be taken seriously.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:07 am
That lineup you put out Myk would have offensive talent and fits with playing fast but it looks weak on D. But D is terrible now too, improving a step or two on offense would be steps up. But you’d need a great defensive bench to take that design anywhere longterm.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:07 am
still dont understand why its not on tv or open to the public. The majority of the lottery show on tv is talking about prospects and introducing all the team reps. the way the lottery is conducted is that there is a board with numbers, and when they draw the combination of numbers they match that pick with the team. What is so wrong with doing this live. it wont take more than 30 mins. This is why so many of us feel the lottery is more than just luck.
i really beleive they should get rid of the lottery system, and just do the draft selections like all other leagues based on records.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:09 am
MYK-
I’m not saying the lottery IS rigged. Theres a way better likelihood it isnt.. It’s just so far from impossible.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:10 am
If we do get the 2nd pick of course we take beasley if rose is gone. I think if we could get the 16th pick and some change for Wilcox that would be perfect.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:10 am
I like the lottery concept. Rewards the worst teams without outright encouraging tanking. I would, however, like to see more transparency in the process. As someone pointed out above, they should televise the ping pong ball process; it would make for very dramatic television.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:14 am
One of the reasons the lottery isn’t live is probably because they want us to stay and watch until the end to find out who gets the #1 pick.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:14 am
The owners share revenue. Not perpoterous at all. They’re all taken care of regardless.
- No they do not…your rationale is so completely wrong. Now that we have gone 2 years with hearing about how much money the Sonics are losing because of their attendance and poor building you would think you would know that the value of the team is directly related to how many people the owner can get into his building. More people in the seats lead to more advertising, more concessions, more luxury box purchases…and guess what leads to more people in the seats?? Good players…
Im sure Cleveland did not have 20k fans before LeBron made the team. Now they sell out most of their games and that one player (cause the rest of their team is downright horrible) makes the owner TONS of money.
On top of all that, LeBron James has singlehandedly made the Cavs the 7th most valuable franchise in the league. Right now Forbest estimates the team to be worth $455 million. In 2002 befiore LeBron the team was worth $222 million. One player has doubled the amount a franchise is worth in less than 5 years. Im sure all the owners wouldnt want one of them on their teams.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:15 am
BOG votes 28-2 (behind closed doors) to move a revenue sharing partner to a much smaller market ….Does that make sense?
At odds of at least 1000-1 Portland and Seattle end up with the top 2 picks (behind closed doors)…. Make sense?
Nah..Positively coincidence, right?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:15 am
“If you ask Durant, he will want the Sonics to pick Beasley.”
just because they are buddies doesn’t mean he automatically wants him. as of a couple months ago he said it was a tough choice and he didn’t really know, but might favor rose because of his point guard skills
May 19th, 2008 at 10:16 am
They dont share revenue? Sorry then for being out of line…
May 19th, 2008 at 10:18 am
I’m laughing at all the people trying to explain why the lottery is fixed. You don’t REALLY know so quit acting like you do.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:18 am
I like the lottery concept. Rewards the worst teams without outright encouraging tanking. I would, however, like to see more transparency in the process. As someone pointed out above, they should televise the ping pong ball process; it would make for very dramatic television.
- More dramatic then the opening of the envelopes and seeing that a team has made it into the Lottery? Im pretty sure I can’t think of anything more dramatic then last year when they pulled the envelope and you knew Seattle was in the top 3…then in the top 2…
Rigging the lottery is not phyiscally impossible…but the chances of it happening and everything working is 0.00000000000000000000000000000001% chance, so what is the point?
Like I said in an earlier post…it actually makes a ton more sense to rig the lottery for the smaller market teams. The bigger market teams usually have richer owners and better core attedence groups. Why not send stars to places like Memphis, Sacramento, Charlotte, etc and help build fan support in those markets?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:19 am
If they dont share revenue then why the BOG vote? It should only be up to Stern then.
I am obviously missing something.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:20 am
If we get the third pick and trade wilcox for the 16th pick what would think of this line-up
PG: Augustine
SG: OJ Mayo
SF: Durant
PF: Green
C: Collison
May 19th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Without the lottery I think there would be much more obvious tanking by teams towards the end of the season; and who wants to pay all that money to see your team lose on purpose?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:24 am
you would think more people would watch it on tv if it was live…
May 19th, 2008 at 10:24 am
- Agreed…plus taking on Dalemberts contract would kill the cap space they have been “supposedly” trying to create after next year.
Tell me how else we are going to get a legit center who is young, a top shot blocker, solid rebounder, good athlete and not an offensive liability?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:30 am
BOG votes 28-2 (behind closed doors) to move a revenue sharing partner to a much smaller market ….Does that make sense?
- This actually proves my point…there is a revenue sharing mechanism in place for revenues generated by the league. Things like National TV Contracts, NBA TV Revenues, NBA Apparel deals. Each team gets an equal piece of the pie. There (i would imagine) a small amount of revenue sharing where teams that make more revnues share with the smaller market teams.
However, the big chunk of a team’s revenue is generated locally. If this wasn’t the case…if all teams really just shared everything then what would be Bennett’s or Schultz’s argument for needing a new Arena to remain financially viable??
On top of that…like I said earlier…another huger piece of the puzzle is the amount a great player can lead to increased franchise valuation. One player (LeBron James) has caused his franchise to double in value after five years. Im sure most owners wouldn’t want that.
At odds of at least 1000-1 Portland and Seattle end up with the top 2 picks (behind closed doors)…. Make sense?
Nah..Positively coincidence, right?
- The odds were greater than 1000-1…but regardless…I’m still not seeing ghow giving Portland and Seattle Oden and Durant was something the NBA would’ve wanted to do. I mean its not like Durant and Oden in Chicago and Boston would’ve made any sense right??
May 19th, 2008 at 10:30 am
one thing is, i could Guarantee you that if Blake Griffin was still in the Draft, this team would take him no matter where we are in the draft…
May 19th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Tell me how else we are going to get a legit center who is young, a top shot blocker, solid rebounder, good athlete and not an offensive liability?
- Well…some people are going to argue with your adding Dalembert to that group you just described. But regardless, I’m just saying what Presti and Bennett are saying…not what would be best for the team.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:33 am
If they dont share revenue then why the BOG vote? It should only be up to Stern then.
I am obviously missing something.
- Because the Stern works for the BOG…why would they leave a decision up to Stern when he is their subordinate?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:33 am
“Save the Sonics Save the World Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 10:24 am
you would think more people would watch it on tv if it was live… ”
Example live lottery:
Welcome to the NBA Draft Lottery!
*shot of ping pong balls in a big ping pong ball machine*
BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH
Now let’s see who gets the first pick!
*picks ping pong balls - checks ball combination*
Alright, the first pick goes to _______. Let’s see who gets the second pick!
*25-50% of the viewing audiance changes the channel*
Alright! Let’s see who the second pick goes to!
*picks ping pong balls - checks ball combination - same as the first one. puts balls back, waits 10 seconds, picks again.*
The second pick goes to _______!
*everyone else changes the channel because no one cares who gets the later picks*
May 19th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Blake Griffin? Why? Because he is a Sooner?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:36 am
If we get the third pick and trade wilcox for the 16th pick what would think of this line-up
PG: Augustine
SG: OJ Mayo
SF: Durant
PF: Green
C: Collison
May 19th, 2008 at 10:37 am
I’d think that we better be ready for another top 5 pick come next year’s draft.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Too many people would know, and too much is at stake, for loose lips not to have sunk the NBA ship a long time ago. Anyone who’s sat on any kind of committee, large ones especially, knows that consensus is hard to achieve and harder to maintain, especially with revolving membership. Conspiracy theories credit “other people” with more intelligence and loyalty in the service of usually questionable (i.e. not very intelligent and not worth necessary fidelity) ends than anyone, especially the conspiracy theorist himself, is capable. You get a new NBA owner: how do you induct him? Do they access smoky back-rooms by learned hand signals and wear funny hats? You have 2 out of 30 owners voting No. How do you keep them quiet? How does no one out of the legions of confidants and advisers too all the team owners and Stern not know? And what short of the fear of death motivates them to keep their mouths shut?
It’s fun to have a someone, an agent, a something other than impersonal chance, to blame for things I guess.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:38 am
In general, point guards take a long time to develop, often failing to produce at high levels - just like quarterbacks drafted out of college. Highly productive big men make better draft prospects. The Sonics should select Beasley and then look for a veteran point guard on the free agent market in the next year or two, after our rookies develop a bit. Perhaps the Sonics will be able to trade some draft picks for a veteran guard.
Of course, no good vet will be willing to play in OKC, so this assumes the Sonics stay in Seattle.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:38 am
also just thought if this, isnt it ironic, that last year seattle gets #2 pick to take durant, which gives a reason for Bennett to rebuild a team and to Stink, in turn they trade ray allen to boston, and look at where boston is today…
May 19th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Before the lottery I wonder if they weigh their balls?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Well said SeeJ….another reason they don’t do the lotto that way is that it is not just the first three lotto pulls that end up being the deciders. I don’t know how to full explain it. However, when a team gets a pick (Say Portland at #1) they don;t just take out all of Portland’s balls. So…the next go around when they have to find the #2 pick they could come up with anothe scenario where Portland is given the #2 pick…but that isn’t possible since they have already been awarded the #1 pick.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:44 am
If we weren’t afraid of tanking/lame duck seasons/etc, my best offseason/draft situation would have us taking beasely and stealing calderon from the raptors. That would be sweet.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:44 am
BTW, I don’t see anyone calling out the NFL for their practices. If two teams tie for a spot in the NFL Draft it is handled via coin flip…do they televise those coin flips anywhere??
May 19th, 2008 at 10:44 am
If we weren’t afraid of tanking/lame duck seasons/etc, my best offseason/draft situation would have us taking beasely and stealing calderon from the raptors. That would be sweet.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:47 am
the coin flips are done at the first day of the combines, and they are televised on the nfl network
May 19th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Like I said. Lottery fixing is highly improbable but far from impossible.
Let’s be real here.Just like horse race fixing. Not everyone needs to know the fix is on. And why would they want to tell every owner? Does anyone here believe there isnt a core gorup of owners?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:48 am
“Before the lottery I wonder if they weigh their balls?”
Are they delivered in a sack?
I wonder what the job of … is it a certified public accounting firm? … of the people who oversea the lotto entails. Surely they handle the balls. And count the balls. And load them into the machine. And inspect the machine. Maybe they go through some dry runs. And maybe they weigh them too.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:49 am
You know what’s hilarious, Myk? No matter what pick we get, there will be people saying that the lottery is fixed. We get 3,4 or 5 and people will say Stern is trying to kill fan interest in Seattle. If we get 1 or 2, people will say that it’s Stern giving his best buddy Clay another present.
Argh.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:49 am
“Before the lottery I wonder if they weigh their balls? ”
I for sure would like to if I were a rep.. Ping Pong balls that is.
But just asking to would lead to some trouble most likely.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:50 am
If we weren’t afraid of tanking/lame duck seasons/etc, my best offseason/draft situation would have us taking beasely and stealing calderon from the raptors. That would be sweet.
- Last year i was a big proponent of trading for Calderon…unfrotunately I think that Toronto realizes he is a good little floor general.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:51 am
I do not think it is rigged, I do think the ping pong ball drawing live would make for good television. There would be quite a few drawings with teams that already have draft position 1 or 2.
Sonics have a better chance of getting the 3rd pick.
I have no desire to have Reggie back, nice guy, one trick pony, team rebounding does not increase enough to offset his lack of offensive production. I would rather give that time to Petro.
Steve Ballmer is going to have a pretty good team.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:53 am
You know what’s hilarious, Myk? No matter what pick we get, there will be people saying that the lottery is fixed. We get 3,4 or 5 and people will say Stern is trying to kill fan interest in Seattle. If we get 1 or 2, people will say that it’s Stern giving his best buddy Clay another present.
- LOL…that is a very good point…
May 19th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Let’s be real here.Just like horse race fixing. Not everyone needs to know the fix is on. And why would they want to tell every owner? Does anyone here believe there isnt a core gorup of owners?
- So, care to come up with who those core group of owners would be? Then, care to come up and actually do some research to prove that they have benefited unreasonably well from the lotto?? I can guarantee you that your research will probably prove that the people you think are “core owners” have actually been hurt by the Lotto more often then helped.
But, by all means, I encourage you to try and prove your point.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:55 am
The reason that star vets won’t play in OKC is not just because it is one of the 10 worst cities in the world, but mostly because it is a small market. Pro sport veterans have done well in Seattle, and even better in the biggest cities (NYC, LA, Chicago) because of the endorsement deals. Any decent agent weighing offers between a market the size of Seattle vs a Memphis, NO or OKC, will tend to favor Seattle.
Also, Washington is a NO-income tax state. It’s 6.65% in OK.
So you make more money and you pay less tax if you play in Seattle. I can just see Durant’s accountants trying to explain why he needs to pay a huge state income tax, just because Bennett wanted to drive to games instead of taking his private jet.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Kind of funny that something that goes on behind closed doors is so easily accepted as God’s honest truth.
How about me asking you to prove your point that what goes on behind closed doors is so pure.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Myk-
Then you are saying that there is no core group of owners because I cant name them?
May 19th, 2008 at 11:08 am
“How about me asking you to prove your point that what goes on behind closed doors is so pure. ”
Because you’re the accusatory party. The burden of proof is on you.
That goes for this too: “Then you are saying that there is no core group of owners because I cant name them?”
May 19th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Let’s not forget that the presidential election was fixed in Ohio in 2004, when the only precincts that did not match the exit polling were those where there was no paper ballots, and it is well established that Diebold Corp fixed it so George Bush would win. So fixing the lottery is quite possible.
Yes, Stern will be suspected no matter what the outcome. He puts his slime on everything.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Big Worm if you were win now I agree Dalambert is one of the few center choices realistically available, even if the cost/return question is tough. Maybe they’d consider him next summer or the year after.
Between national tv, most or all of merchadising, national sponsorships, NBA China and international TV revenue I think NBA teams share at least 50% of total revenues.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Big Worm if you were win now I agree Dalambert is one of the few center choices realistically available, even if the cost/return question is tough. Maybe they’d consider him next summer or the year after.
Between national tv, most or all of merchandising, national sponsorships, NBA China and international TV revenue I think NBA teams share at least 50% of total revenues.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Myk & Call it like Calabro, it is not a core group of owners - rather it is just the core of NBA league management (in other words, David Stern).
May 19th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Then you are saying that there is no core group of owners because I cant name them?
- OK fine…lets go in reverse…if the lottery is fixed then you should be able to go out and find out who these “core owners” are. Most would assume that the core owners would either be the ones around for a really long time, or the ones who have owned teams in the NBAs tent pole markets.
Really, if you are so sure you can easily do the research and report back to us. Personally, I think you know that it is random and don’t want to take the time to do that research.
Kind of funny that something that goes on behind closed doors is so easily accepted as God’s honest truth.
- I gave SIX reasons why it is implausible for the NBA to fix the lottery. Some were monetary reasons (why would an owner willingly devalue his franchise and make another franchise more valuable) some were logistics (tons of difference scenarios that would need to be fixe) and some were just based on past history (Knicks have never been in the top three since the new system.
The burden of proof is on you to prove any of these items to be reasonably untrue…
May 19th, 2008 at 11:14 am
what is so Irritating is that the NBA makes it so Controversial becuase they leave the possiblity of thinking it is rigged, when they can easily eliminate it with just showing the drawing live. showing the actually tape would shut up a lot of conspiracy theorys out there. having the NBA not do this just brings up more reasons why its not legit.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Though it is highly unlikely the draft is fixed, the people on this site who are so dismissive of the possibility seem naive. Corporate shenanigans have been all over the news for years now. Maybe you guys trust big reputable firms like Arthur Anderson to keep everybody on the level. Oh, yeah , um wait…
May 19th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Myk & Call it like Calabro, it is not a core group of owners - rather it is just the core of NBA league management (in other words, David Stern).
- Again…if it is all David Stern and a couple of other in the management office…who has he been trying to help all these years? A big market team (is NJ a big market team?) has never won the lottery…so its not big market teams…I’m sure having Yao in Houston is great for his vision of moving into Asia…it is a nice story to have LeBron show up in Cleveland his hometown…but would that have really been the place that Stern wanted him to go?
There just aren’t any sort of facts to support you believing this so strongly. It made more sense when it was just 14 envelopes in a big bingo ball thing…now it just does not.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Though it is highly unlikely the draft is fixed, the people on this site who are so dismissive of the possibility seem naive. Corporate shenanigans have been all over the news for years now. Maybe you guys trust big reputable firms like Arthur Anderson to keep everybody on the level. Oh, yeah , um wait…
- I challenge you as well to actually do some research to prove that certain teams have been given a preferential treatment in the lottery over the last 15 years. Please, prove me wrong…I’d love to have another reason to dislike David Stern.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Durant will be restricted free agent in 2011. There is a pretty attractive list of unrestricted free agents then who might get a lot of the attention.
http://www.realgm.com/src_freeagents/2011/
If he waits til 2012 he could well be target #1.
But that is a long ways off.
Will be interesting to see how many teams show discipline enough to protect major future cap room. Their track record isn’t good but there is more look of doing it and I think some will follow thru and realize it.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:21 am
and we all thought nba Referees would never cheat because consequence it would have on the league…
May 19th, 2008 at 11:26 am
I would really like to see a good young point guard come to Seattle more than another big man. It’s exciting to see a good PG with the ability to control the tempo of a basketball game and get their team’s players involved. Tyson Chandler isn’t much of a player without CP3 tossing ‘oops to him, Chandler’s offense is Chris Paul’s ingenuity with the basketball..
What could someone like that do to Jeff Green and KD?
At the same time, if Rose goes first I think that it would be a good idea to assemble a SG and better front court. Draft Beasley/Mayo and spend the next several draft picks to deepen the bench, guys to play behind Beasley/Mayo, KD and Green.
Earl Watson is a servicable point guard. He is capable of running this team for another year. Come next year there would be the cap room and draft picks to trade/draft our future PG.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:29 am
So in 2011, the inaugural season for OKC, the free agents Bennett is planning (dreaming) to add are:
Tyson Chandler, Amare Stoudemire, Andrei Kirilenko, & Tony Parker.
That will be an awesome team with Durant still at the SG position.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:35 am
“Will you watch the lottery?”
Nope.
It’s like 1 a.m. over here in Germany and i got to go to work the next morning.
I also don’t think we’ll have all that much luck this time around and i really hope that we’ll at least get a top 4 pick, so we’ll at least get our hands on Mayo or Bayless and don’t have to settle for Brook Lopez.
BTW: I think that either the Knicks(they need a pg for D’Antoni’s system and Stern told everyone that they’ll be better next year) or the Clippers(they look like they win the lottery once ever decade and last won it in 88 and 98) will win the lottery.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:35 am
i see this team ending up with bayless than rose, with the way the lottery might unfold. then taking a Big later on
May 19th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Yea, I’ll watch the lottery Tuesday night. Rose or Beasley would be the perfect addition to the young team.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:44 am
“Corporate shenanigans have been all over the news for years now.”
Exactly. And that’s why an NBA conspiracy theory isn’t to be believed. It would have been all over the news a long time ago.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Alot of those guys have player options for 2010…so LeBron, Amare etc. will be already signed the year before.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:53 am
No I won’t watch the Lottery simply because I don’t know what I am rooting for yet. IF these Sonics are here to stay then of course it would be cool to get the top pick but if it is Clay Clay’s team then I hope they get the 5th pick and pick a total bust. Hard to get excited with the recent media negativity about saving this team
May 19th, 2008 at 11:57 am
I will be watching, and it will be that much sweeter when we pick rose or beasley and the Sonics stay in Seattle!! Myk Lebron james is from Ohio, and their franchise was going downhill bigtime and he was their savior. so if it the lottery was fixed that would make perfect sense. Plus, everybody knows the NBA gave the Knicks Ewing! Im not saying its fixed, but it sure seems like it from time to time. Just like every NBA game isnt fixed because a ref bet on over 100 games he was a referee in.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Myk Lebron james is from Ohio, and their franchise was going downhill bigtime and he was their savior. so if it the lottery was fixed that would make perfect sense. Plus, everybody knows the NBA gave the Knicks Ewing! Im not saying its fixed, but it sure seems like it from time to time. Just like every NBA game isnt fixed because a ref bet on over 100 games he was a referee in.
- So…they decided that it made more sense to put LeBron the best player ever in Cleveland as opposed to Chicago, New York or LA just to save the franchise??
- While it is still implausible that the Lottery was rigged in 84 with Ewing it is at least more reasonable logistically since they used the envelope system. This is actually why it is less likely that the lottery is rigged. The NBA has gone out of its way that would be near impossible to rig.
AGAIN…all these people who are so sure that it is possible please provide evidence that certain teams have been favored more than others. Really, the only team with an argument is San Antonio…and that seems like an odd team to favor.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Has nobody mentioned that Augestine has pulled out of the draft?
I would like Ty Lawson with the PHX pick if he’s around? I don’t know if he’s a starter because of his size, but he could be a solid back-up.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Why am I an idiot today?
I was thinking about Collison from UCLA, and got that crossed with Augestine. Don’t mind me, but I stand by the point about Lawson.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
I could really care less about cap space to be honest. Most of the good free agents that leave a team are usually sign and trade anyways. Samuel Dalembert is a guy you get if he is available. Sure two years ago this would be a possible disastrous decision. Today after he has improved so much it would be a good choice. Philly aint gunna deal him though so who cares. I hope the Sonics get the top pick and get Derrick Rose. This team needs a long term solution at the point and Rose can be the floor general. It’s not as exciting as last year due to this shit that Bennett is trying to pull off, but I’m still hopeful the team stays in Seattle and until they leave, I will root for them.
I can pretty much guarantee that the lottery is NOT rigged. If it was the league would have lawsuits up the ass from teams getting screwed out of top picks. Boston in 1997 is a good example. Cleveland and Detroit in 2003, Portland and Seattle last year.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Little known facts:
Fact #1: The NBA BOG has a special subcommittee of owners with the title “COMMITTEE TO OVERSEE LOTTERY OUTCOMES.”
Fact #2: In 1963 the NBA BOG had a special subcommittee of owners with the title “COMMITTEE TO ASSISINATE THE PRESIDENT.”
Fact #3: In November 1963 a young David Stern was seen in Dallas, Texas. He was seen eight weeks earlier in Havana, Cuba.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
“If we get the third pick and trade wilcox for the 16th pick what would think of this line-up
PG: Augustine
SG: OJ Mayo
SF: Durant
PF: Green
C: Collison ”
That would be a pretty powerful line-up. I think we would be well positioned to compete for an NCAA championship.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Hahahahhahaaha!
May 19th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
if the lottery is really rigged then NY or Memphis will get the 1st pick
May 19th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Has nobody mentioned that Augestine has pulled out of the draft?
- Where did you get that information?? Still see him in the draft on ESPN.com
May 19th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
I can pretty much guarantee that the lottery is NOT rigged. If it was the league would have lawsuits up the ass from teams getting screwed out of top picks. Boston in 1997 is a good example. Cleveland and Detroit in 2003, Portland and Seattle last year.
- What?!?!?! You mean that the NBA would’ve rather had Duncan play for Boston over San Antonio?? I’m sooooo shocked…
May 19th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
I feel like I’m on trial for having the point of view that Stern is capable of anything. I think he is. I won’t specifically say he fixes the draft. But the behind closed door aspect only breeds this kind of questioning. Sorry for sounding ‘accusatory’ but what did I accuse anyone of other than Stern being a snake.
Again, I didnt accuse anyone of fixing the draft, but if you dont physically view it how is it unreasonable to question the validity of it.
I guess some people just blindly trust Stern and his cronies more than others.
And to think that a 30 owner group hasnt formed any sub-alliances over the years if kind of naive, IMO. That is so human nature to do. To not have any alliances formed within the group would be against all human nature.
Maybe that’s where I am fooled. I injected the word ‘human’ where Stern is involved. Oxy/moron
Got it.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
We have to get more than the 16th pick for Wilcox. He is the equal of Al Horford who went 3 last year. Do you really think a team would not want to have a young PF with proven skills over a pig in the poke with a draft choice? Wilcox is worth two picks and one needs to be top 10. So if Presti can parlay Wilcox into 7 and 16 then how about a draft of:
2. Beasley
7. Bayless or Mayo
16. JaVale McGee
24. Brandon Rush
32. Ryan Anderson
50. Nicola Pekovic
May 19th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
When Tuesday comes and we don’t get the number 1 or 2 pick, please remember that statistically we have the highest odds of getting the 4th pick. 31.9% according to Percy Allen.
Why the lottery in the first place? Drafting order in the NBA is more important than in other sports. In the NBA pick number five is significantly better than pick number 10 most every year. This is not the case in the other sports. As we have seen the past 2 years, a race for 2-4 guys can happen. The lottery lessens the potential of outright tanking for a pick and lowers the odds of success for teams that do throw games.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Again, I didnt accuse anyone of fixing the draft, but if you dont physically view it how is it unreasonable to question the validity of it.
I guess some people just blindly trust Stern and his cronies more than others.
And to think that a 30 owner group hasnt formed any sub-alliances over the years if kind of naive, IMO. That is so human nature to do. To not have any alliances formed within the group would be against all human nature.
- All we are asking is for you to provide some evidence that this is actually the case…and you cannot…therefore, your point is not very strong. It has nothing to do with blind trust. The thought that people here in Seattle could blindly trust Stern would seem pretty amusing at this point. However, even if everyone hates Stern it does not mean we should allow ourselves to believe things that there is no evidence to believe.
We laugh at the folks over at the NewsOK site for thier misinformed opinions…lets not give other the opportunity to do the same over here.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
I said
“Again, I didnt accuse anyone of fixing the draft, but if you dont physically view it how is it unreasonable to question the validity of it.”
I guess it should specify with Stern at the controls.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
2. Beasley
7. Bayless or Mayo
16. JaVale McGee
24. Brandon Rush
32. Ryan Anderson
50. Nicola Pekovic
- I would add Luc Richard Mbuh Abute (or whatever his name is…) from UCLA to the list of players on the Sonics radar. Based on the list above you have guys falling farther then most think they would.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Hey Myk, I gotta say, reading your snide comments over and over is getting a little irritating. So much so that it’s making me write this comment. Could you tone down the pretentious attitude a little bit? Seriously. Thanks.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
“Again, I didnt accuse anyone of fixing the draft, but if you dont physically view it how is it unreasonable to question the validity of it.”
- If it were reasonable you would have data to prove your point…It’d be like if I said that it is quite possible that flying horses with a horn on their heads exists. You wouldn’t believe me unless I was able to provide you with some sort of physical data, right?
May 19th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Oh yeah, some feedback: Calderon would be a great addition. Even TJ Ford would be a great addition, and it looks like one of those two will be gone next season. I read someone recently say Ford wasn’t an effective PG, but I’ve watched him play and he is just lethal out there, with great court vision. A definite game changer with veteran status. Also, Jamaal tinsley will be available most likely, although I don’t know if I would want his corrosive off-the-court presence in the Sonics locker room. Wilcox, although a favorite personality of mine, just doesn’t have the hunger and tenacity necessary to win consistently. If we can trade him for a workhorse or a good draft pick + some, i would be happy to do it. As for the lottery, I agree with Myk, it’s not rigged.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Hey Myk, I gotta say, reading your snide comments over and over is getting a little irritating. So much so that it’s making me write this comment. Could you tone down the pretentious attitude a little bit? Seriously. Thanks.
- Will do…no problem…just dont like people saying something is true that they will not take the time to research. Oh well…i think the best comment all day was this one:
You know what’s hilarious, Myk? No matter what pick we get, there will be people saying that the lottery is fixed. We get 3,4 or 5 and people will say Stern is trying to kill fan interest in Seattle. If we get 1 or 2, people will say that it’s Stern giving his best buddy Clay another present.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Myk-
I hear what you’re saying about direct evidence.
I will finish my misinformed opinion by putting it in it’s simplest, most pure form.
Put David Stern behind a closed door, (btw, has he ever given a reason as to why they do the lottery like that?) and who knows what is being said. From a BOG meeting to the lottery.
That is my only real opinion in this regard. I am just trying to using common sense when speculating on the owners sub-alliances. It just makes more sense to me that there are groups within the group. That’s all. No offense to anyone.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
More seriously than my recent previous posts . . .
Consider this possible league restructure:
1) Add ten new expansion teams. Increase the number of teams to 40. (Allow new markets without getting rid of the old).
2) Ten new expansion teams compete in their own league. Top three teams “move up” next season to compete in the established league.
3) Bottom three teams from established league move down next season to expansion league.
4) No lottery — three teams moving up draft first followed by rest of established league in reverse order of regular season standings. Teams from expansion league draft next in reverse order of regular season standings. Teams from established league which moved down draft last.
Problems solved. 1) Introduction of new markets without losing old markets. 2) No more tanking. 3) Draft system that still is oriented toward parity. 4) Large cities will have a competitive advantage in the free agent market and will effectively be immunized from demotion to expansion league except in the case of Isiah like incompetance.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
I don’t even notice the lottery is tomorrow.
Truthfully I’m looking more forward to the trial than anything right now.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Yay! That means I won something!
May 19th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Watson, Wilcox and the former Sun’s pick for Dalembert or Andre Miller, Rodney Carney and their #16 pick?
May 19th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Don’t know if anyone has seen this:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=DraftWatch-080516
May 19th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Myk Says:
We laugh at the folks over at the NewsOK site for thier misinformed opinions…lets not give other the opportunity to do the same over here.
Thanks for doing your part to make sure it got all of this attention. It’s a laugh to see someone spend a good part of their day arguing against such a silly notion.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Basically a roundup of Kevin Love, Chase Budinger and Luc Richard Mbuh Abute as they prepare for the draft. Evidently Love has lost 13 lbs on a structured eating program.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Put David Stern behind a closed door, (btw, has he ever given a reason as to why they do the lottery like that?) and who knows what is being said. From a BOG meeting to the lottery.
- If the ping pong machine was put on Television how would that decrease the chances of the draft being rigged? If they require the ping pong machine to create a rigged draft then they could show it on Television. If putting it on TV would prevent them from rigging the results then there is no reason for them to use the ping pong machine in the first place.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Point guards and centers are hard to find. Everything in between is a dime a dozen. I take Rose 10 times out of 10. If we end up at #2 with Rose off the board, time to make a trade.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
I am rooting for the Sonics to get the 5th pick. I think it is the lowest pick they can get. I do not want to watch Clay Bennett and these OKC people get excited for another super star. At this point it is really hard for me to see these Sonics as we know it stay in Seattle past 2010. Do I think we will have pro basketball after 2010? Yes but I think that Stern is so stubborn that instead of doing a flip of the teams as in we keep the Sonics and OKC gets a new franchise I see another Charlotte NO!!!!!
I hate the NBA right now!!!
May 19th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Phenom your Philly trade would give Presti a draft pick and a look at an outside shooter while Watson for Miller cuts contract length. Something like that might work for both sides.
D_G I like your B league expansion plan. To replace D league.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
If we end up without Rose (say, pick #3) who’s going to trade with you for him? I think we’d have to give up too much to get Rose and would rather build up the rest of our team (SG, more front court players) so that the final missing piece of the puzzle would be a PG.
Then next year with cash under the cap and draft picks galore you either trade for a PG or draft one. In the meantime Watson would do fine I think. Will Conroy anybody? (j/k)
May 19th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
I’m not sure why everybody is seeing real value for Wilcox.
1)He’s inconsistent, disappears throughout the get let alone from one nite to another.
2) has yet to avg a double double through the course of the season
3) plays no defense
4)has 1 maybe 2 post moves if that.
If we get the 16th pick and a future pick I would be happy.
Then if we do not get 1 or 2 I would take Brook Lopez @ 3,4 or 5 then trade your 16 or 24 along with however many 2’s you want to get Russell Westbrook and the later 1st rounder on a foreign guy who can develop later on or a big guy like Hibbert or Devon Hardin and try to see if you can sneak in JR Giddens or Kyle Weaver
Then you would have
2008
PG) Westbrook - (crazy defense)
SG) Durant
SF) Green
PF) Lopez
C)Collison or Hibbert or Hardin
6th Man ) JR Giddens or Kyle Weaver
If you are wondering who Russell Westbrook is….this is him..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FP0ua5xFw4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGzllXpnBf8&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8g3S1maawYs&feature=related
May 19th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Myk and SeeJ, As far as the “lottery being rigged” being preposterous, you have to consider where this all comes from in the first place. It is COMPLETELY BASED ON FACT. There was no lottery before David Stern. Larry O’Brien did not have a lottery. But a year after Mr. Honest & Forthright took over as the NBA Commissioner, he instituted a Draft Lottery to give “more teams a chance at landing the top player(s) in the draft” and to discourage teams from blowing games at the end of the season in order to secure a better draft choice.
In actuality, the only reason that Stern started the Lottery was because a franchise Center was available that year whose name was Patrick Ewing and he wanted his N.Y. Knicks - the team with the biggest market-share to have the dominant force in the NBA for years to come. They used envelopes back then (one per team) - not ping pong balls, so all he had to do was to bend a corner of the envelope in order to be able to pull out the Knicks envelope for the #1 Pick in the draft. Back then, cheating was much easier for David. He had his assistant bang the Knicks envelope hard against the metal drum that they were being thrown into (probably just for good luck, right?) before tossing it in, but all the other envelopes were just tossed in.
Then, giving himself away more than he wanted to, David Stern doesn’t just reach into the drum to pick out the number 1 envelope, he actually looks into the drum to see as well as feel the creased envelope. Once he was certain that he had secured the Knicks envelope for #1, he never looked inside the drum again. He looked away (as you would expect an impartial person to do) when he drew the rest of the envelopes. Apparently David Stern ordered the video of that first “lottery” destroyed, but one video was not destroyed and it is available on YouTube for your viewing pleasure:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TgJE7C5wiU#
I know you’ll argue that that was then and now we have a ping pong ball system, so it’s really hard for David Stern to practice what he does best (cheating and manipulation), but there’s another little story about that that I can’t go into now, but I will later. David Stern was hired to fix the NBA and FIX IT he has.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Please, go into it sooner rather than later.
Seriously.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
D_G there would be some implementation issues that would be important and might be deal breakers with a B league.
I would assume the 30 teams in the real NBA continue 30 team split of NBA shared revenues.
The new 10 would probably operate on 1/4 to 1/3 the revenues (small B league national tv if any, smaller local tv and ticket and merchandising, sponsorships, etc.). When they step up they’d have to increase roster salary massively and would face big risk to do multi-year deals if going down were a threat year to year.
Falling out might be death-knell of fan support for many franchises.
No existing franchise would allow league to jeopardize their guarantee at 1/30th of NBA revenues.
Maybe a B league should be the pool for permanent expansion teams. Play well, earn well, pay big and get to move up as league can allow (really need national tv money to expand again). Go from 30 to a gradually higher number over next decades.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Maybe increase the age limit to 21 & require at least 2 years of B league participation in order to enter the NBA draft.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
also, that video proof of a rigged draft is dumb.
seriously.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Crow:
This A league — B league thing is not my brain child. I heard about some European soccer league following this model . . . but I don’t know anything about it (even which league).
I love the idea. It seems to resolve a number of very intractable problems.
I’m sure that this could never be implemented exactly for the reason that you state above: “No existing franchise would allow [themselves to risk being demoted].”
Anyhow, it all seems much more fair. Allow for an open, competetive system to play big league ball.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Amost every league in Europe follow this kind of system.
It’s not only a two league system, there are many more starting with non professional divisions. The best teams of a division earn the right to play at the next level the following year, the worst have to play in a lower division.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Simpler corrective that the NBA could implement that would improve the current condition is to keep the system of playoff teams and lottery teams. However, among lottery teams — the better your record the better your odds in the draft for the first three.
If losing decreased your ping pong balls . . .
Would you trade Gasol for Kwame Brown???
Would you give away Wally, West, Thomas???
May 19th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
All (Can’t think of any that don’t) European Soccer Leagues work by the promotion/demotion. My team went down last weekend. The pain is still too much but a fight to the end I think is better
If the Sonics go I’m officially a curse on my teams
May 19th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
“All (Can’t think of any that don’t) European Soccer Leagues work by the promotion/demotion. My team went down last weekend. The pain is still too much but a fight to the end I think is better”
Mine (Paris) almost went down, they saved themselves in the last game.
I’m almost sure it will be the same with the Sonics. It looks bad right now but something good will happen at the last minute.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Vinny:
“Before the lottery I wonder if they weigh their balls? ”
Clay has volunteered to perform this task for Stern with his special technique involving his tongue . . .
(sorry I couldn’t resist).
May 19th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
SeeJ-
I’ve never seen that video before. But watch it again, man — I didn’t see it until the second viewing.
1) The assistant places 6 of the 7 envelopes lightly into the drum. The other one (the fourth) gets banged around on the edges.
2) There is HUGE bent corner on that first envelope Stern picks up (after clearly looking into the drum first). He scoops up three envelopes, then pulls out the bottom one, which clearly has a one-inch bend on the corner.
Seriously watch again. Start at 4:45 into it.
Clear as day. And I was pretty skeptical going into it.
…I guess it could just be a coincidence, but it seems pretty obvious to me.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
I know you’ll argue that that was then and now we have a ping pong ball system, so it’s really hard for David Stern to practice what he does best (cheating and manipulation), but there’s another little story about that that I can’t go into now, but I will later. David Stern was hired to fix the NBA and FIX IT he has.
- This is exactly why the ping pong system was implemented. If they were willing to rig the lotto for New York in 84 why havent they done that since??
May 19th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
In the interest of even-handedness, I suppose the corner could have been bent inside the drum, and not while the assistant “accidentally” banged it around.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
SeeJ (& Myk): This is just one of many examples of David Stern’s cheating. Patrick Ewing was the reason that he came up with the lottery in the first place. Otherwise, the Knicks had NO chance of getting Patrick Ewing.
OK, I finally got to see that video of the 1985 draft lottery. Earlier I was on a computer that would not play it - a problem with Flash player and it wouldn’t let me download Flash. I was basing what I said before on a columnist, not on what I saw.
So here’s my analysis:
It’s easy to see the crease on the corner of the envelope and I’m sure that was done beforehand by the fellow from Ernst & Whinney. I wonder how much that cost Mr. Stern? You’ll notice that there was only one guy - 2 auditors wouldn’t have cost much more (unless you’re talking about the cost of paying them to cheat) but it would have made it virtually impossible for Mr. Stern to alter the outcome. He certainly didn’t want 2 people back there double checking for any impropriety. The auditor placed the altered envelope in the middle of the stack so even if they were turned over it was the 4th envelope with 3 on either side. This ensured that no one would see the bent corner beforehand because 3 envelopes with sraight corners were on either side of it.
When he clumsily knocked the envelope against the metal bar and side of the drum while tossing it in, I’m sure that that was just cover, in case anyone saw the bent corner and questioned the propriety of the proceedings (this was his alibi: “it must have got bent when I tossed it in the drum”). I’m certain that it wasn’t the cause of the envelope corner being bent. It was as contrived as all the rest of it. Anyone who does not think that the 1985 NBA Draft Lottery was NOT FIXED is extremely naive.
It’s also been widely talked about for years, but no one wanted to actually challenge the almighty Commissioner on it, which is the main reason why he’s so smug and arrogant nowadays. He really thinks that he can get away with anything.
There was a story circulating about how Mr. Stern had figured out a way to fix the ping pong ball lottery using some modern technology, but I don’t know if that story has credibility or not. I was going to research it a little more before writing anything about it, because it could be utter nonsense or just pure speculation, which I am pretty certain that it is. But who knows? I put no act of manipulation beyond this commissioner. He is completely without scruples. He is the one who must be exposed and he must be ousted for us to have a fair chance of keeping our Sonics in Seattle.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
I heard they stuck the envelope into the freezer prior to the draft so that David just had to find the cold one.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Word is that in the Ewing lottery, NY’s envelope was put in the drum very cold, so Stern could feel for it. There didn’t seem to be any bent corners, if I recall…
As for ping-pong ball fixing– I agree it would be extremely difficult to actually pull off. Perhaps if it SEEMED like something fishy was going on, it might be something to consider. But the lottery results have been crappy for the league, so why would anyone think it’s fixed??
I’ll say this– it they’re going through the massive work and secrecy required to accomplish a fix involving witnesses and floating ping-pong balls, they aren’t getting much of a return for their efforts.
It’s MUCH EASIER to just tell the refs to ensure certain teams win key games. About a billion times easier…
Yes, I’ll be watching the lottery and hoping we finish in the top two so we can take whoever is left between Rose and Beasley.
If we win, I want Rose. But Beasley would be great as well…
May 19th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
In a league where referees have been subtly manipulating point spreads for their own benefit it is not a stretch to imagine that a lottery could be manipulated as well. How could it be done? Easy. Team A wants a better shot at first pick and goes to commish, commish arranges it and agrees to kick considerations back to Team B in the form of payouts, better draft picks down the road, or a shot at better free agents by having a word with their agents. This is probably less likely nowadays than it was in the David Falk days but it wouldn’t surprise me if their was some subtle manipulation going on. Statistically speaking it is rather odd that the team that has the most ping pong balls rarely wins the #1 overall pick.
I am not saying the lottery is manipulated. I don’t know for a fact that it is. I am saying that I believe that it could be manipulated without knowledge of more than a few people in the commissioner’s office if someone decided to make it happen.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
SeeJ, come on, you’re kidding us, right? That would be pretty funny, though. I think it would have had a lot of frost on it.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Anyone who does not think that the 1985 NBA Draft Lottery was NOT FIXED is extremely naive.
- Again…if he FIXED that lottery why has there been no evidence (either hard facts or even logical reasoning) that he has shown he fixed any lottery after that?
Why would he have sent David Robinson to San Antonio? Tim Duncan to San Antonio? Greg Oden to Portland? Yao Ming to Houston? Shaquille O’Neal to Orlando and Alonzo Mourning to Charlotte?
– In 2002, the Knicks were in the Lottery and instead they drafted 7th and missed out on Yao Ming and Jay Williams…both great franchise players.
– In 2003, the Knicks were in the Lottery and instead drafted 9th. Missing out on LeBron James, Carmello Anthony and Chris Bosh (Wade as well…technically)
– In 2005, the Knicks were in the Lottery and instead drafted 8th when there were two great PGs for draft (Paul and Williams) and a couple of big guys that seemed great at the time (Bogut and Marvin Williams)
– In 2007, the Celtics had their worst record ever and ended up getting the 5th pick and instead the league decided that they’d send Greg Oden to Portland and KD to Seattle.
So despite all this evidence above…we are going to see the league rig the lottery this year…
May 19th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
In a league where referees have been subtly manipulating point spreads for their own benefit it is not a stretch to imagine that a lottery could be manipulated as well
- This is not true…the first situation you describe is something that can done completely individually…therefore pretty easy. The other situation requires the agreement of tons of people and teams..
Everyone’s tin foil hats must be mighty comfy…
In all honesty, the saddest part about this is that David Stern’s reputation has fallen so far that people are wiling to allow themselves to believe something that is implausible.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
SeeJ, come on, you’re kidding us, right? That would be pretty funny, though. I think it would have had a lot of frost on it.
- Yes this is actually the most common “urban legend” about the NBA draft…
May 19th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
In 2006, the Toronto Raptors got to select first. We all know that everyone hates Canada…
May 19th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
“Why would he have sent David Robinson to San Antonio? Tim Duncan to San Antonio? Greg Oden to Portland? Yao Ming to Houston? Shaquille O’Neal to Orlando and Alonzo Mourning to Charlotte?”
Your entire premise rests on the assumption that any manipulation will always favor large market teams over the small… just because Stern may or may not have favored the Knicks in 1985 does not mean that he would favor the Knicks in every lottery drawing thereafter. One argument would be that smaller market teams need the superstar #1 overall franchise type players as market draws, whereas the LAs and NYs of the league can get those guys eventually through free agency.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
just becuase its rigged, dosent have to mean that new york always gets the best players. It would be too obvious if they win it every year, or always move up every year.
Also if there was evidence or facts, i would doubt there would be a lottery tommrow.
I also remember when the grizzlies, raptors, and bobcats were just in the league, those teams could not win the #1 pick for about 3 years. they would always need to pick 4th. Im not 100% sure on this, but i remember the raptors or grizzlies win the lottery one year, but got #2 becuase of the rule. i think it was either the year iverson went #1 or the olowakandi went #1.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
On another note, I’m already prepared to punch a hole in my TV when David Stern says, “And the ___ pick goes to the Okla - err, Seattle SuperSonics” and then flashes his signature sh*t-eating grin.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Long time no talk, guys! Sorry about my absence…I was dealing with some serious issues in my personal life.
It seems we have something in common…lottery talk. The Heat have the highest probability, but the odds are still stacked against them.
Also, what’s the latest on the Schultz lawsuit front?
May 19th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
“Your entire premise rests on the assumption that any manipulation will always favor large market teams over the small… just because Stern may or may not have favored the Knicks in 1985 does not mean that he would favor the Knicks in every lottery drawing thereafter. One argument would be that smaller market teams need the superstar #1 overall franchise type players as market draws, whereas the LAs and NYs of the league can get those guys eventually through free agency. ”
What is nice about Myk’s premise is that it suggests that if there is a conspiracy to fix the lottery that the conspirators have some sort of consistent motive.
So Stern fixes the lottery . . . what is his motive? Why does he do it? How does he decide how to fix it?
May 19th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Its interesting to see the pro-expansion for Seattle pundits getting so worked up over this draft.
As a hardline “This Team or Bust” advocate, I’m hoping beyond all hope that we can land Rose. These Sonics, er, OUR Sonics, need a PG more than anything else. Please don’t let the logjam at PF continue with a big man. Please, oh please.
Also, I think the draft is fixed, and that NY is going to land a sweeter than imagined pick in this draft. Hey, why else would D’Antoni have taken that job?
SAVE THESE KD & JEFF GREEN-LED SONICS!!!
May 19th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
I’ll be watching the lottery, the Sonics are still Seattle’s until they aren’t playing games here anymore.
I’m an optimist, Bennett will lose both lawsuits and team will stay.
I’d take Rose 1st, we have needed a PG since GP was traded.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
My top five picks in order would be: 1.Rose, 2.Beasley, 3.Mayo, 4.Bayless, 5.Trade down for more picks if all of these other 4 players are gone, then with the new pick go after Lawson or Augustine. Now if the Supes were to leave I hope they pick Lopez. Maybe Clay Clay can put out a starting lineup of seven footers. Swift at the sg, Petro at the sf, Sene at the pf, Lopez at the center and Durant would play point.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Myk & SeeJ et al, I’m not saying that he’s fixed every lottery or even any lotteries since 1985, but he did fix that one. There were a lot of rumblings and murmurs around the league after that and Stern might have thought that it was too close a call and he didn’t want to put his job in jeopardy, so he may have instituted the ping pong ball lottery to satisfy his critics, and he may have kept his hands out of it since then. Maybe the modern-day lottery is 100% on the up-and-up. It could be. He can’t rig the whole thing anyway.
The rumor that was going around about David Stern finding a new way to manipulate the outcome of the lottery has already been alluded to by Vinny. He asked the question “Before the lottery, I wonder if they weigh their balls”? I don’t know if Vinny knows something or if he is just speculating or what. D_G answered that as far as David Stern is concerned, Clay Bennett had figured out an ingenious way to weigh his (Stern’s) balls with his (Clay’s) tongue, but that’s actually beside the point.
This is the story/rumor that was circulating awhile back - I can’t remember when - I’m sure more than a year and I never read much about it, but someone had stated that David Stern had ordered some lighter ping pong balls to be made for the lottery for one of the teams, probably only a few or a handful. These balls would statistically have a much greater chance of being sucked up by the vacuum into the trap or chamber or whatever it is.
It was sometime within the past few years that this person said that Stern used that for one of the teams in one of the drafts and it worked. However, I can’t remember the year or the team or the pick he was talking about, which is why I didn’t want to talk about it now. But since someone’s already brought up the weight of the ping pong balls, I thought that I would put it on the table and see if anyone else has heard about that or knows anything about it. Or someone else here may also want to research this story and see what they can come up with. I still don’t know if this story has any credibility, unlike the blatant manipulation of the 1985 NBA lottery.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
I don’t think the draft is necessarily rigged all the time. But I don’t know if I trust Stern and his secretive league from taking liberties when they deem needed. The simple fact that the draft was created the year Patrick Ewing was giftwrapped to the Knicks says enough. That and the fact that it is so secretive to begin with.
I worry that if the Supes get Rose or Beasley that it will just cause Clay to fight that much harder to the end of the earth. I honestly don’t see either or those players causing people in Seattle outside us diehards to care any more than they already do. Besides us, people here consider them gone. Why do they care about a future OKC team getting better?
May 19th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
It’s safer to say, and more likely that the draft lottery is not rigged, but it’s not like sports writers, & personalities have never wondered out loud about the reliability of the draft “lottery” before either. It’s not like it’s a ludicrous thing to wonder about although unlikely perhaps, but who cares what outsiders think about this blog, and we DO have alot of misinformed(and ignorant) posts here anyway. It kind of goes with the blog territory…
May 19th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
What’s the latest on relocation/Schultz/etc?
May 19th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Myk, You are most likely right in your arguing that the lottery isn’t rigged. But your using examples of players going to smaller markets is a poor defense. Like Xteve said, the league could look at giving players like LeBrown and Oden to places like Cleveland and Portland as stablizing the league. Increasing the value of his owner’s franchises, and the strength of the league as a whole.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Past few years to help a team… and it worked?
Oden to Portland?
Bargnani to Toronto?
Bogut to Milwaukee?
Howard to Orlando?
Hmmm…
May 19th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
I always heard the stories about the 85 draft being fixed, but I never saw the tape until I checked here today to see if there was any new updates.
It’s easy to see it was fixed. I can’t wait till the trial starts. David Stern needs to be bullied around a bit.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Nothing has really changed South Florida. Other than OK City threatening to sue if Schultz wins back the team. They claim that regardless if Clay Bennett is proven in court to have committed fraud, that they expect their new lease with him to be honored by whoever in Seattle buys it next. Yeah, exactly.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Also, if it ever were rigged it probably wouldn’t be EVERY year, as the odds of being exposed would increase. It would make sense(if they did it) to do it only when it bests suits them. Not saying they do it, but after what I’ve seen from the NBA, I wouldn’t put it past ‘em…
May 19th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Who cares about the other number 1’s. Maybe he did just that one time. Who knows?
May 19th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
there are only 10 ping pong balls that they use for the lottery. they draw a combination of a 4 digit number. they then look up what team is locked into that combination of those 4 digits, and that team wins the first pick. Repeat and you got the second pick and third pick. It would be very easy to order certain balls to be custom made to drawn threw a machine, such as making them smaller or larger.
If you watched the lottery last year, they showed how its done. the balls were in a hard locked suit case, surrounded by foam. they had a wall about 50 ft long with teams and their associated numbers. But they nevered showed the combination of numbers. They also do the lottery in the middle of the day like at 11 or 12 noon, so the results are determined way before hand.
anyways about 25 more hours to go….
May 19th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
“Prior to the lottery 1,000 combinations will be assigned to the 13 lottery teams by a computer. The remaining combination is unassigned. Four balls will be drawn to determine a four-digit combination. The team that has been assigned that combination will recieve the #1 pick. The four balls are placed back in the drum and the process is repeated to determine the number 2 and 3 picks. If the one unassigned combination is drawn, the balls are placed back in the drum and the process is repeated until an assigned combination is drawn.”
Honestly, I’m not sure HOW you rig this…
We need 4 balls out of 14 to come out of the machine in the correct order in front of witnesses! MAKE IT HAPPEN!
May 19th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Your entire premise rests on the assumption that any manipulation will always favor large market teams over the small… just because Stern may or may not have favored the Knicks in 1985 does not mean that he would favor the Knicks in every lottery drawing thereafter. One argument would be that smaller market teams need the superstar #1 overall franchise type players as market draws, whereas the LAs and NYs of the league can get those guys eventually through free agencyi>
- So basically the years he wants to rig the lottery he sits back and decides which team deserves it most? Based on that I dont think he picks New York (he hasn’t done it for 24 years…why start not. You’d have to imagine that Charlotte will get the first pick and draft either Beasley and Memphis will get the second pick and draft Rose (or vice versa).
I mean Stern will want to help out his best buddy Michael Jordan (wait the Wizards also got teh first pick in Jordan’s first year there…) and want to help increase attendance in Memphis. Actually, maybe he’d switch and actually give Indianapolis the first pick instead of Memphis. Then he could help out his buddy Larry Bird.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Its interesting to see the pro-expansion for Seattle pundits getting so worked up over this draft.
- It is interesting that you can’t grasp that there are not any “pro-expansion” people here. There are only “pro-keeping basketball continuously played in the City of Seattle” people here.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
I’m pro-whatever-is-entertaining.
In today’s case, it’s seeing these pro-fixed-lottery posts.
LAWL
May 19th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Thanks guys. I’ll be back later. One last question:
If any of you would like to write a guest piece on our blog about the Heat and Sonics lottery chances, it could be a good way to tie it into the whole Seattle-Miami alliance.
I have to go, but e-mail me at thesouthfloridafan@gmail.com and I’ll get back to you later. Just seems like a decent idea.
Best of luck, all of you!
May 19th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
If the one unassigned combination is drawn, the balls are placed back in the drum and the process is repeated until an assigned combination is drawn.”
- Especially since if you “rigged the lottery” to come out with a specific outcome of balls (say option 9999) to give Team A the first pick…when they started out to assign the 2nd and 3rd pick that same number 9999 would continue to pop out since all the balls are placed back in the machine..
May 19th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
So…if anyone wants to read a pretty interesting article about fixing the draft can go here:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nbadraft/story?id=1383452
I will give every the first person a dollar to find the small paragraph that made me actually laugh out loud while at work…
May 19th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
As far as the 1985 draft lottery tape… did anybody else notice right before Stern sticks his hand into the drum he lets out a VERY noticable sigh? I mean if he has nothing on the line he really shouldn’t be too worried about the outcome of the lottery. It looked like a ” well, I hope this all works out” type of sigh. Please let me know what you think.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
“So basically the years he wants to rig the lottery he sits back and decides which team deserves it most? ”
No …It wouldn’t be Stern that’d be behind something like that, it’d be the owners. Say an owner really wants a certain player. Hell, let’s say it’s LBJ and everyone wants him, so they take all the teams in the lottery and weight the number of balls accordingly, then say to the top 5 owners if you want extra balls they’re 50 grand apiece. So owners could buy extra chances at winning the lottery pick they want. Or one guy buys out the balls for the other three or four.
Does it happen? Probably not. Could it? Absolutely.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Then in the above example Stern is the cover guy who can provide plausible deniability since he ‘personally oversees the lottery’ or words to that effect.
I know it’s shocking and maybe even beyond the realm of believability to think that David Stern would go to those lengths to cover up for one of his owners, but there ya go.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Hell, let’s say it’s LBJ and everyne wants him, so they take all the teams in the lottery and weight the number of balls accordingly, then say to the top 5 owners if you want extra balls they’re 50 grand apiece. So owners could buy extra chances at winning the lottery pick they want. Or one guy buys out the balls for the other three or four.
- LeBron James was easily the most attractive #1 pick ever…to think that they somehow let certain teams give themseleves a better chance at winning this AND no other teams said anything about it is sad. Like I said..it is sad in someways that the NBA has allowed itself to be degraded so much that people are willing to give a second thought to the most outlandish of theories.
http://www.ilovebonnie.net/tinfoil-hat.jpg
May 19th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
“to think that they somehow let certain teams give themseleves a better chance at winning this AND no other teams said anything about it is sad.”
How would they say anything about it if they didn’t know? Or care? 17 of 30 teams every year aren’t in the lottery, of those pretty much all but four or five have an insignificant chance of winning the top pick anyways … again, I don’t really believe that it is rigged … but is the process so transparent at every step that there is absolutely no doubt that it’s 100% above board all the time? No, it’s not.
“Like I said..it is sad in someways that the NBA has allowed itself to be degraded so much that people are willing to give a second thought to the most outlandish of theories.”
No doubt the NBA has no one but itself to blame….Phoenix vs. Seattle, 1994, 63 free throws …
May 19th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Seriously… this topic is so bad. We need a new fresh thread…
May 19th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
So to say that there is no way to possibly rig the lottery-pong is to say there that every single keno and bingo machine ever built cannot be rigged..IWow…..Wow….
I can almost assure you that given the fact there is keno in every casino, it has been rigged at some point. Am I crazy or is that straight logic?
May 19th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/nba/01playoffs/records.htm
Most free throws made, one half
19 — Magic Johnson, LA Lakers vs. Golden State, May 8, 1991
19 — Karl Malone, Utah at Portland, May 9, 1991
19 — Charles Barkley, Phoenix vs. Seattle, June 5, 1993
May 19th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
So to say that there is no way to possibly rig the lottery-pong is to say there that every single keno and bingo machine ever built cannot be rigged..IWow…..Wow….
I can almost assure you that given the fact there is keno in every casino, it has been rigged at some point. Am I crazy or is that straight logic?
May 19th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Anything can be rigged!
Have you not seen Oceans Eleven, Twelve & Thirteen?
Those movies are FACTUAL!
May 19th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Personally, I am very excited about the lottery. I share some of Brian’s dread that a top pick will cause Bennett/Stern to hold on that much tighter, but really, could they be holding on any tighter? A top pick could also force that much more negative PR as well. “Sonics owners trade all talent away, achieve worst season in franchise history, rewarded with top pick.”
If we get #1 or #2, WE hold on that much tighter. More excitement. More momentum. Mo money…?
Find $75m!!!
May 19th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
“I can almost assure you that given the fact there is keno in every casino, it has been rigged at some point. Am I crazy or is that straight logic?”
Are you going to back these claims up with fact?
Also, keep in mind that with Keno and Bingo machines, the order that the ping pong balls comes out doesn’t matter - with the NBA draft, it does.
Why do I get the feeling that people are picturing the draft lottery machine like a lotto machine with X balls for Miami, Y balls for Seattle, etc. It doesn’t work that way!
May 19th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
You may be interested in reading Bill Simmons (from ESPN) take on David Stern’s rigging of the 1985 NBA draft. It’s pretty clear, but I disagree with him on one point. He thinks that the clumsy banging of the Knicks envelope caused the crease in the envelope and I think it was purely a cover in case someone noticed the crease and questioned him or Stern, they would have an excuse of how it happened. I’m surprised that he thinks that David Stern would leave that to chance.
If Stern had instructed the E&W guy to bang the one envelope on the side or the bar in order to bend it, that would be taking a terrible risk, which he wasn’t going to do. It might not have worked at all - leaving no mark on the envelope for David to see and feel OR it might have worked “too good” and seriously bent the envelope so that they would have been forced to get another one. David Stern did not leave that to chance. This was just a little alibi that would make it look accidental IF anyone complained. Does anyone NOT think that that is what happened? Maybe I should bring that to Bill Simmons’ attention.
http://tinyurl.com/3j4h4p
ESPN page 2 Bill Simmons on NBA Conspiracy theories
May 19th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
This topic is boring the crap out of me. I’ll propose an alternative:
If the Sonics land the #3 pick, who do you like? Assume Rose and Beasley are gone and trading down is not an option. Frankly, I’m not in love with Mayo, Lopez or Bayless. I think I’d go with Mayo because he seems to have the least question marks (at least in terms of on-court issues). He’s got a beautiful jumper, good handles for a 2-guard (maybe good enough handles to potentially play PG), solid defensive fundamentals, and displays a great amount of intensity on the court. Like I said, I’m not enamored with him, but I think he’s safer than Bayless (either a tiny SG or shaky ballhandling PG) and Lopez (unathletic, defensively weak C).
Another name to throw out there if we land outside the top 2 is Anthony Randolph. I haven’t seen him play and I’m always skeptical of raw high risk/high reward guys, but he seems like someone who might fit into Presti’s desired mold of skilled big men.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
I agree with SeeJ this topic is bad and we need a new one. BUT Ill throw my thoughts in anyway. I am sad that last year we were all very excited about the draft and it was a great day when we got KD (and Jeff Green), but this year it is very hard to be excited. We are for sure going to get a good player and we should all be excited like last year. Being uncertain about the Sonics’ future, how can we happy about this? I mean we might get BEASLY or Rose-paired with KD and JG-wow! But we all know we might be seeing that combo playing in OKC instead of Seattle. It just makes me sad. On one hand I wish we would get top 1 or 2 but I do think that will cause Bennett to hold on and fight us that much harder. I think for Seattle it would be in our best interest to get the 5th pick. Also I have no idea or opinion about the lottery being fixed, but I do have a feeling that Stern has already planned something for tomorrow. Since he hates Seattle so much I could see him fixing it so we get the 5th pick this year and making sure that if they move that Bennett will get a top 2 pick next year. Does that makes sense?
Does Stern actually draw the numbers and announce which team it its? Meaning he will for sure have to at some point say “Seattle SuperSonics”? Because it will be very interesting to see how he acts toward our team compared to other teams and how he announces it. But of course Ill be in class during the lottery tomorrow so hopefully you guys can tell me how it went.
Also I heard KD is representing us at the lottery…does anyone know if thats true? Wonder if he will say anything to Stern or Bennett if hes there.
Wow, sorry, I just wrote a lot for saying we needed a new topic. Oops.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Myk, I would say that the line that made you laugh out loud is the one about Wally Walker saying about Conspiracy theorists: “there’s always someone who’s going to say that we never landed on the moon or it’s made out of green cheese or something.”
At first I thought it might be the Penn & Teller reference, but then I saw that Wally Walker was quoted. If I get the dollar or a beer or something let me know.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
I bet Seattle and Super will be left out and Sterno will only say “Sonics”.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
By the way, I’ll buy into all of the conspiracy theories on one condition.
The Sonics receive the 6th pick or lower in tomorrow’s lottery.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
If the Sonics pick #1, it will reduce the potential liability of the NBA for collusion with Bennett in the event that Schultz wins his suit and the PBC has to compensate Schultz for the diminished value of the team. The NBA is even more worried about being named a codefendant in a suit brought by OKC against the PBC for the $150 mil tab under the liquidated damages clause of the OKC/PBC lease.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
and raise the value of the team
May 19th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
T, did you decide if you can make the SOS meeting on Thursday or not? That would be great if you could. I don’t know why a lot of people thought this topic was awful - what talking about the lottery itself or how David Stern has managed to fix it in the past? That I think is very interesting especially when you realize that we may have to bring David Stern down to keep the Sonics and we will have a lot of company in that fight. Many people know he’s dirty and hate him, so it’s probably not as hard as some people think it is.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
This topic is terrible because it’s filled with baseless accusations regarding the legitimacy of the NBA Draft lottery. There have been both accusations of collusion and apathy made towards NBA team owners, as well as suggesting that the accounting company that oversees the event is also corrupt.
I understand that people have harsh feelings toward David Stern, but the world has changed in 22 years. We don’t deal with envelopes and things are done using machines and computers to deal away the possibility of human intervention in the lottery process. Putting the draft lottery on TV live would be bad tv. You give away the ending early and it could either take less than 2 minutes or over 30 minutes depending on what happens, and all the suspense and pageantry would not be able to happen.
So there. That’s why this topic is terrible.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
SeeJ - good one. Too bad you won’t be believing any of the conspiracy theories then.
Rock - I’m hoping that they’re thinking that way, but they just may let the combinations fall where they may. According to some odds someone posted, our odds of getting the 4th pick in the draft are higher than getting any other of the 5 spots. We only have a 19.8% chance I think of getting #1 (1 in 5), and about the same of getting #2, but a 40 or 41% chance of getting #4, according to a poster here, but that just doesn’t sound right to me. First of all we’re the 2nd worst team with the 2nd most ping pong balls, so I don’t get it.
T - yes, KD will be representing us - so that’ll be fun - like Brandon Roy did last year. That may be a bit of superstition on the Sonics part. They might be figuring that if Portland used the ROY last year and they landed the #1 pick, then that just might work again with us using our ROY!
May 19th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
SeeJ, so are you saying that you do not believe that the 1985 Draft Lottery was manipulated by David Stern to assure that the N.Y. Knicks got the #1 Draft pick, which everyone knew was Patrick Ewing?
I think all the lotteries since then are open to question, but there is probably no proof that any of them were rigged, and very likely they were not, but I’m far from certain about that.
We don’t have to accuse the accounting company of being corrupt in this, although there may have been some collusion on a high level. It’s not necessarily Ernst & Winney - it’s the one accountant who David Stern undoubtedly paid or called in a favor from. It would be interesting to know if the two of them went way back or not. And please don’t tell me that you think that he would have been above accepting some money from David Stern to come up with the “correct” result. It’s happened a lot with juggling of the books by Big 5 Accounting firms - witness Arthur Anderson.
The “good one” above was in reference to when you will start believing all the conspiracy theories - if we get the 6th pick in the draft, i.e., when hell freezes over. I think that this is a great topic and very interesting and a lot has been written on it. I can bring more to the table if anyone wants to discuss it further.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
ZenDoc - here are the complete lottery odds: http://tinyurl.com/4mvqf6
We are, in fact, most likely to land the #4 pick.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
“This topic is terrible because it’s filled with baseless accusations regarding the legitimacy of the NBA Draft lottery.”
I haven’t read anything in this thread, but I read an article on how the combinations work. Once you know how they’re laid out, it’s pretty easy to see how the NBA can pretty easily rig the lottery.
I’m willing to bet good money its’ been done multiple times though the years.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Sam K, thank you for those odds. It just seems odd that we’re the second worst team in the league (or 2nd worst record), yet we only have a 56% chance of landing one of the top 3 picks - barely over 50-50, and we have the best odds (32% - not quite as high as I was remembering) of ending up with the 4th pick in the draft. Also don’t these odds change as soon as the first pick is made? Because if Miami gets the first pick, 250 combinations are removed, so our odds of getting #2 or #3 should go up, right?
May 19th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
The odds are basically meaningless Sam.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Sam K, I would probably go with OJ Mayo at #3, but that’s not what the draft boards that I’ve read are saying. They say the Sonics pick Jerryd Bayless if we get the #3 pick in the draft.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
If we get bumped down to #4 or #5, I would strongly consider trading down for a player or another draft choice and draft Kevin Love at #6 through #9 somewhere. He would be a great addition, somewhat similar to Nick Collison but a better shooter, stronger, and who wouldn’t want another Nick Collison anyway? Of course, that would still leave us with a point guard problem, though. Maybe they’ll pull off another trade for 2 of the top 6, 8 or 10 draft picks. Who would you guys pick at #3, #4, or #5?
May 19th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
You want to see a picture of David Stern as the Emperor from Star Wars and an excellent article following it?
Check this out:
http://tinyurl.com/3nto2n
.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Kevin Love is kind of a taller version of Charles Barkley. Unfortunately that is not what we need. We have several PF’s and I prefer one that can run the floor. Love cannot run. Take Anthony Randolph before Love. We don’t need instant impact. We need guys that are going to be ready and still here after two years of development.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
“Also I heard KD is representing us at the lottery”
Thats good news. I remember last year all the cameras were on Brandon Roy after Portland won the lottery.
Our ROY. Our turn.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
“Kevin Love is kind of a taller version of Charles Barkley. Unfortunately that is not what we need. ”
Wow. A taller version of Barkley would make him a HOFer.
With all due respect, I feel like there is room for a future HOFer on a 20 win team.
I like Love.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Over 200 comments and still one question has gone unanswered.
Why is the lottery done behind closed doors?
Only Stern could call this a lottery.
Could you imagine the state or any lottery being done behind closed doors? Where else is there such a thing?
Everybody drop your lottery tickets here. We’ll take them into this room and be right back to tell you who won. Fair enough?
What a joke.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
‘Patches Pal’, I agree with ‘call it like calabro’ - calling Kevin Love a taller version of Charles Barkley is certainly not a criticism. Would that he were that good (that’s Old English or something), everyone would be ecstatic. I think he will be very successful in the NBA. And he doesn’t need to run as fast that often because of how far he can throw the ball to our speedy guys. Who else can throw the ball that far on the outlet pass?
May 19th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Love just flat has good hands, IMO. Rebounding, passing, soft touch. With lots of upside and a fairly clean bill of health.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
I would not be disappointed if the Sonics ended up with Kevin Love and a really good point guard, especially if it’s Derrick Rose.
May 19th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Have you guys seen the Pro Basketball blog called “Basketbawful”? It’s pretty interesting and funny.
The subtitle is: “The very best of the worst of professional basketball. And there’s a lot of it.”
This particular article is entitled: The 1984 NBA Finals: David Stern’s first conspiracy
And the caption under the photo at the top of David Stern and Larry Bird reads: “In 1984, Bird and the Celtics were the first victims of Stern’s dark machinations”
http://tinyurl.com/3nto2n
This is serious stuff and shows that Larry Bird was pissed off at the commissioner for tampering with outcomes of the playoffs, primarily through manipulation of certain officials. This could be much bigger than we have been led to believe.
May 19th, 2008 at 7:27 pm
Have you guys seen the Pro Basketball blog called “Basketbawful - NBA Playoffs 2008″? It’s pretty interesting and thought-provoking.
The tag line is: “The very best of the worst of professional basketball. And there’s a lot of it.”
The link is to a piece called: The 1984 NBA Finals: David Stern’s first conspiracy.
And the caption under the photo at the top of David Stern and Larry Bird reads: “In 1984, Bird and the Celtics were the first victims of Stern’s dark machinations”
http://tinyurl.com/3nto2n
.
This is serious stuff and shows that Larry Bird was pissed off at the commissioner for tampering with outcomes of the playoffs, primarily through manipulation of certain officials. And what is incredible is that Larry Bird was NOT FINED for calling the Commissioner on the carpet about it. What does that tell you?
If there had not been any truth to it, I’m sure there would have been stiff fines, but it was Stern’s first year and he was probably sweating out just how much he could actually get away with, and he may have thought that he was caught and may have been at risk of losing his job and facing criminal charges if he made a bigger deal of it, so he just denied it as “ridiculous” and let it blow over.
This could be much bigger than we have been led to believe. This one referee who was caught manipulating the outcomes of over 100 games (McDonaghy or something like that?) could be just the tip of the iceberg. This could get real good (or real bad depending on how you view it) when and if David Stern has to unlock the vaults of records, and testify and be cross-examined in court.
May 19th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
If Stern was so concerned about the bigger sports cities getting the best draft picks/best teams, he would just disband the salary cap….if the NBA is run by a core group of owners, like others speculate, than I suppose that core group could make the league more uncompetitive, like baseball, where a select group of 10 cities will consistently be good, and other cities will have a 1-2 year run before going to the middle to bottom of the league.
The fact that Stern wants the Sonics in Oklahoma completely proves that the league is not run by the larger markets, or the so called “select owners”. Baseball is rigged to population and economics of cities, basketball and football aren’t.
But who knows, maybe baseball has it right, making the league dependent upon economic base. The realized that their product belongs in big markets, not smaller markets, and its a reason why the only large market in the United States not to have a baseball team is Las Vegas.
May 19th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
At first I thought it might be the Penn & Teller reference, but then I saw that Wally Walker was quoted. If I get the dollar or a beer or something let me know.
- Sadly no…I thought everyone would get a kick out of this tidbit:
“It’s like believing that the referees walk onto the court and know how to fix the game,” said Indiana Pacers general manager Donnie Walsh. “I’ve never seen any evidence of any draft conspiracy.”
May 19th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
Why is the lottery done behind closed doors?
- Why are the coin flips that decide draft picks in the NFL done behind closed doors? What about the coin flips that are done to decide home field advantage without the public around??
I haven’t read anything in this thread, but I read an article on how the combinations work. Once you know how they’re laid out, it’s pretty easy to see how the NBA can pretty easily rig the lottery.
- LOL way to just throw this out without any sort of proof or evidence on when it could happen.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
“It’s like believing that the referees walk onto the court and know how to fix the game,”
I know. Where’s the evidence?
May 19th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
“LOL way to just throw this out without any sort of proof or evidence on when it could happen.”
I’ll see if I can find the story. Anyways here’s the jist, teams are granted thier ‘combinations’ based on order of finish. There’s 1001 combinations, the first 250 go to the worst team. So all combinations with a ‘1′ in it go to that team as well as about half the combinations that start with ‘2′.
So if only 2 of the 13 numbered balls don’t show up, the chance of the team with the worst record to not get the pick is 100%.
Does that really seem like 25% of a chance?
May 19th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
I’m sorry, Scott, I’m really confused about what you’re saying about the combinations. There’s 14 ping pong balls, right?
You say “if only 2 of the 13 numbered balls don’t show up, the chance of the team with the worst record to not get the pick is 100%.”
I just don’t get that. Can you either explain it differently or find the link to the article?
May 19th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
Besides, how can you possibly rig anything that uses the truest, most precisionly calibrated, weighted, sized instrument known to man. Tried and true.
The Ping Pong Ball.
Infallable and fool proof. Always has been, always will be.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Scott said: “I’ll see if I can find the story. Anyways here’s the jist, teams are granted thier ‘combinations’ based on order of finish. There’s 1001 combinations, the first 250 go to the worst team. So all combinations with a ‘1′ in it go to that team as well as about half the combinations that start with ‘2′.
So if only 2 of the 13 numbered balls don’t show up, the chance of the team with the worst record to not get the pick is 100%.
Does that really seem like 25% of a chance?”
Which works really well as a theory until you realise that the combinations are granted to the teams randomly, AFAIK.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
“Which works really well as a theory until you realise that the combinations are granted to the teams randomly, AFAIK. ”
If this is the case, this year will be the first year that’s true. Last year once the four numbers were drawn, only the Blazers and Sonics had a chance to win.
I’m digging for the article, it talks about Kevin Pritchard and Rich Cho being in the room where the lottery drawing is taking place and Rich having a picture of daughter with him for luck.
So maybe they changed the procedure for this year, but last year there was ‘randomness’ to it at all.
“There’s 14 ping pong balls, right?”
Yes, it was a typo. Sorry.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
“That’s easy. They do it the same way they did the 28-2 vote. Behind closed doors where Stern tells everybody what’s best for his league.”–Call It Like Calabro.
As much as I enjoy this site, sometimes the passion for the cause of keeping the team in town makes people irrational. I have a pretty low opinion of many NBA owners as well as Stern, however, the draft is not rigged. I agree with Myk. Some of these posts are just a joke IMO.
As for me, I’d rather have Rose or Mayo than Beasley. It’s a better fit IMO…
May 19th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Beasley might be a better fit only because the Sonics drafted Jeff Green and they still have Wilcox. But Wilcox has trade value and he can bring another piece. KD needs another high power scoring forward to play with, so he is defended honestly and not have al the bruisers hammering on him. The Sonics have so many future picks, and so many players that need to be shipped off this team, that some package needs to be put together to get a veteran point guard. I would consider trading Jeff Green as well, as Beasley projects to be a far better player. The Durant-Beasley combo could be awesome in a couple years.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
Rock, I really like the idea of getting Beasley to team with K.D. That would be an awesome combo. Getting these 2 boyhood friends back together could be a little magic for the Sonics. They would probably love it, play off each other, enhance each other’s games, and be competitive with each other to see who could outdo whom, but hopefully they would keep their team focus.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
Optimistically, KD & Beasley would eventually be comparable to Paul Pierce & Kevin Garnett. Boston teamed Pierce & Garnett with a serviceable veteran shooting guard (Ray Allen) and a bunch of no-names to the Eastern finals. That’s where the story ends for Boston, because Detroit will be moving on to the NBA Finals.
August 10th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
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