Justifying Westbrook at #4
Posted on Sunday, June 29th, 2008 at 9:07 am by Brian Robinson
Lots of interesting talk lately. I had a few minutes with Steve and Scott and we went over Russell Westbrook at #4. I cannot truthfully say that I am thrilled by the pick but personally I have come up with my rationalization. It starts with a basic premise that I’ll let you guys debate:
Russell Westbrook was a terrible pick that high UNLESS you project that either:
a) Westbrook will develop into a star
or
b) There were no likely stars available past 3 in this draft.
I tend to think that the answer was b.
If you assume that was the case I want to just put myself into Sam Presti’s “build this thing piece by piece and don’t skip steps” mentality and I come away with a thought process that I think makes sense.
When building a championship franchise it is a fair assumption that you need some combination of 4 players. Lets classify them as “Superstar”, “Allstar”, and “Franchise Building Block”. The superstars are the perenial all-stars, hall of famers. Allstars are guys who will make 3-4 allstar games in their career, are always on the list of upper echelon players, but not in the leagues top 5 players. Building Block guys are what they are. They may make an allstar game or 2 but they fill roles supporting your top guys.
The traditional model is that you need three stars but only one truly needs to be a superstar. In San Antonio you have had Tim Duncan(SuperStar), Parker and Ginobili(Allstars). In Chicago you had Jordan and Pippen(Superstars) and an assortment of guys who were between allstars andn building blocks(Rodman, Harper, Kucok). In a very rare case you wind up with a situation like Detroit where you really don’t have a single superstar but you have 4 allstars(Hamilton, Billups, Wallace, Wallace).
The absolute worst case scenario for franchises that find themselves with a superstar player is that they continue to shoot for a second superstar but overreach and fail to get the right guy. Instead they have a roster full of “potential” guys who do not even qualify as building blocks.
I think that last year, when we drafted Jeff Green there were guys out there with more “superstar” potential but all could have been busts as well. Very few had as high of a percentage chance of falling into the category of an allstar or a building block. Rather than take a 20% chance that Yi would become a superstar pick to pair with Durant they went with the 80% chance that Green will fill one of the other two categories. Same thing in this draft. If you don’t see any player in 4-10 that has better than a 20% chance of becoming one of the core pieces then it seems like a reasonable decision to make sure that you take the guy who has the best chance of being a building block. Now you have, at worst 3 of your 4 pieces in place with 1 superstar and 2 building blocks, in position to be one allstar away from a dominant team. Had they by chance drafted 2 guys they hoped would be superstars they could concievably be sitting with Kevin Durant and 2 busts, 3 pieces away from contention.
If the team sucks again this year(and they will) then we sit in position next season to draft at worst another building block and be hoping that the combination of cap room and luck will net us an allstar. If one of the guys develops better than expected then we are ahead of schedule.
The team has so many needs that it is not even funny. They needed a center, they needed a PG, and they needed to improve perimeter defense. If there was not an elite center or PG then at least we got an elite perimeter defender. Honestly with Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook this team has the defensive core that it has been lacking for a decade. If we can just find a way to supplement that with a shotblocker in the middle we will have made the investment in becoming a defensive focused team. We all know how tough that is to do.
So I guess I can live with the pick because frankly I can’t tell you the guy below Westbrook that I think was likely to become a star. Given that I think we filled an interesting need and continued along a path that at least makes some sense.
June 29th, 2008 at 9:17 am
Agreed.
BTW, When does Luke lose his BYC status? A matter of days now, correct?
June 29th, 2008 at 9:21 am
In the beginning of July I think.
June 29th, 2008 at 9:23 am
The funny thing is I keep seeing trade scenarios on here that involve bringing us players who are A) At their peak of their career and B) Are a pretty penny to get. (which obviously goes hand in hand with “A”) It is so clear what management is trying to do in building to be a contender a few years down the road and not doing anything to make the team good right now. In all honesty I don’t mind this approach at all. I’m perfectly willing to watch the growth and be near the cellar knowing there is a reachable goal in the near future. I guess the only thing is that in the back of my mind I know they are thinking “by the time this team gets to Oklahoma it will really start to take form and get some results.” At any rate, the draft choices make sense for me and I’d be very surprised if there was any wheeling and dealing going on to bring Shawn Marion or Elton Brand or whoever to our club.
June 29th, 2008 at 9:25 am
I think it is july 1 for Luke.
What I’m talking about is the difference between having drafted Anderson Varejao in 2004 instead of Swift or Jefferson. Varejao you knew was going to be a solid defender and rebounder but was very unlikely to be good offensively. Instead they went on the 50/50 proposition that one of Swift or Jefferson would become a dominant player on both ends of the floor. They shot for the moon and went bust.
That year the Magic drafted Howard in the first round and Varejao in the second. Can you imagine that front line had they not traded Varejao to Cleveland? I just love Howards game on both ends but they would be virtually inpenetrable up front with those two.
June 29th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Brian makes a good case for Westbrook. I think he will be a super exciting guy to watch and will quickly be a favorite, me included. His Youtube is great. He is instantly the biggest reason to watch the game.
My beef is not with Westbrook. Rather it was the choice of him at #4. The Sonics need lots of high quality prospects. Ibaka is not ready. Petro is painfully slowly getting somewhere. Sene will never get there. Swift may be finished. Thomas is gone. Collison is not the answer.
The Sonics needed to either go big (Brook Lopez or Love) or move down in the draft and get 2 for 1. Or move up and get Beasley. The Sonics did not do very well in the draft. They got an “F” grade from one national reviewer.
June 29th, 2008 at 9:35 am
My understanding is that the Knicks were going to take him at 6 if we didn’t get him at #4. Percy Allen seemed fairly sure of this. It may have been a rumor but if he was your guy and the rumor was out there….
June 29th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Sporting News: Draft Grades: F
Seattle Supersonics. Seattle doesn’t deserve this franchise. Seattle is too classy a city. They continue to stockpile draft picks and now players with late first-rounder Serge Ibaka, who’ll likely play overseas. Russell Westbrook is a nice combo guard talent, but they shocked everyone by picking him so high at No. 4. They traded up for D.J. White. Poor Kevin Durant. If only he had gone to an NBA team.
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=428492
June 29th, 2008 at 9:37 am
That’s from Sam Smith…
June 29th, 2008 at 9:48 am
Rock, how many times are you going to post that?
June 29th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Uh … Rock, you realize you’re trying to make a point by using a draft review from Sam Smith?
June 29th, 2008 at 10:28 am
I was hoping that we would be able to trade down a few picks before taking Westbrook (by many accounts, we tried). But, if he was the guy we wanted, I am glad we pulled the trigger when we had to.
A lot has been said about Westbrook’s perimeter defense, and that is definitely a big part of why he was so valued. Another thing to consider, and possibly why he was taken ahead of more offensively minded guards, is transition defense. There is no question that our offense runs through KD - which means jump shots and long rebounds. Unlike Bayless, for example, who would be taking a fair number of shots himself and would be out of position to defend in transition, Westbrook will likely be passing and in position to defend outlet passes and fast breaks. So, he may not fill the stat sheet, but he will hopefully prevent a lot of high-percentage shots while keeping the superstar guards of the league in check.
June 29th, 2008 at 10:28 am
“Rather than take a 20% chance that Yi would become a superstar pick to pair with Durant they went with the 80% chance that Green will fill one of the other two categories. Same thing in this draft. If you don’t see any player in 4-10 that has better than a 20% chance of becoming one of the core pieces then it seems like a reasonable decision to make sure that you take the guy who has the best chance of being a building block.”
I agree with your analysis and very likely that is how Presti seems to approach these choices. You are giving Green too much to say he is 80% to fit into perenial all-star or core block–no one can say he won’t turn out to be just a good player who never makes an all-star game. But the overall premise is sound that Presti is trying to figure out who really fits into his plans as a good piece rather than shooting for the very unlikely super star.
Westbrook (who was my favorite before the draft, although I expected them to trade down and get him) is not the most exciting pick because of his lack of offense. Time will tell if he can develop a good shot and find other ways to score (like Tony Parker), otherwise he will never be considered an all-star. But if he is a solid PG and lock down defender then Presti will be happy with the pick.
June 29th, 2008 at 10:34 am
It’s the second time I posted it, but it seemed particularly relevant to this thread. After all, this whole thread is a rehash of what was said before.
The rumor that the Knicks would take a certain player is a game played by all the better GM’s. If you are the Knicks at #6, you want the team above you at #4 to take someone other than the guy you really want. NY already has plenty of big men. If NY really wanted Westbrook, they would have traded picks with Seattle to get him.
Last year, I felt Presti picked Green too high. I also felt that the dramatic fall to the worst record in team history was part of Bennett’s scheme to steal the team, and that the trades of Ray & Rashard were elements of that scheme. That was the consensus. This year, we got two not-ready-to-play guys with our two top picks. This continues to fit the scheme of putting out a mediocre team in the short run (If Bennett loses, Seattle gets a crap team again, and if he wins, the OKC fans will flock to see garbage for a couple years during their honeymoon).
Guards are common, especially combo guards. Big men are much rarer. The Sonics don’t have a center and most people around here say Wilcox should be gone. The Sonics needed to go big with their top pick.
In the end, a GMs job is to maximize what they have. Presti failed to do so.
June 29th, 2008 at 10:37 am
If NY really wanted Westbrook, they would have traded picks with Seattle to get him.
That makes zero sense. If you are Seattle and you want Westbrook and know that the Knicks might be interested in Westbrook too, then why in hades would Seattle trade with the Knicks?????
Your logic only works if Seattle doesn’t want Westbrook or don’t have a clue who the Knicks want.
June 29th, 2008 at 10:43 am
This year, we got two not-ready-to-play guys with our two top picks.
I disagree with that. Westbrook may not be ready to be the starting PG on day one, but he’ll log minutes and should be getting plenty of playing time by the end of the season.
Ibaka was a “shoot for the home run” type pick, so I’ll give you that one. Draft a raw potential and stash him over seas for a couple seasons. With all the picks the Sonics had this season we knew they’d be doing that win at least one of their picks.
I think White is a quality pick…..and Hardin will end up being a quality backup center who can defend in the paint and block shots.
Analyzing a draft the week after, typically ends up being a fools game. Go back and look at all the draft write-ups from prior years for teams and see how accurate they end up being.
June 29th, 2008 at 10:47 am
For the record, let me admit that I complained a little when Shawn Kemp was drafted. I went to see him in a preseason game where he soared so high that he banged his elbow on the top of the backboard. That instantly changed my mind. Not sure if the college gym had NBA regulation height hoops, but nobody else was getting up there.
June 29th, 2008 at 10:47 am
They drafted need, a safe pick, and one of relatively the same value as players 4 through 7.
Earl is too old for Durant and Green to “grow” with.
Luke can not defend his own position.
Westbrook, hopefully, will not do what Earl did and show defensive skill to get into rotations only to turn that around into the Earl Show.
In either year, selecting 4-7 you might as well select a need, defending the PG position, because the BPA isn’t separated by much.
4-7 picks last year:
Mike Conley 6-1 175 PG Ohio St. Fr.
Jeff Green 6-9 228 SF Georgetown Jr.
Yi Jianlian 7-0 242 PF China 1984
Corey Brewer 6-8 185 SF Florida Jr.
4-7 picks this year:
Russell Westbrook
Kevin Love
Danilo Gallinari
Eric Gordon
June 29th, 2008 at 10:50 am
I think it was a combination of A and B.
Had the lottery balls fallen correctly and had the Sonics drafted #2 per their regular-season record, they would’ve taken Mayo and we’d be thrilled to have Durant, Mayo, and Green as our 3 core pieces. No doubt, Presti tried to trade up with Miami so he could grab Mayo at #2, but once Riley asked for Green, Presti wisely declined to part with one of the core pieces he already had.
With Rose and Mayo off the board at #4, the choice was either Westbrook or Love. It’s a good thing I wasn’t the one making that choice, because it would’ve killed me either way. I think Presti probably figured both players were good enough to be core pieces, but ultimately Sam decided the need for a stud at the point of attack was just too great.
The question is, what’s Westbrook’s ceiling? I think at the very least, he’ll be as good as Rondo or a younger Antonio Daniels, right away as a rookie. What could Westbrook be in 2-3 years? Another Gary Payton? A guy that opposing PG’s hate playing against because of the pressure he applies at both ends?
I think the Westbrook pick is very similar to the Green pick last year. Everyone complained and said Presti overpaid for Green, and that he should’ve taken Yi, or Brewer, or Noah, or Young instead. But as the season went on, and Green started to show his game, it was pretty clear that JG was better than everyone not named Oden, Durant, or Horford.
Ditto for Westbrook. If he fulfills even half of his near-limitless potential, he should be an excellent player for many years to come.
June 29th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Why couldn’t we have drafted Love and traded him to Minnesota for Mayo? If Westbrook doesn’t work out, that’s something else to look back upon too.
June 29th, 2008 at 11:36 am
I think people take an NFL view of the draft and over-value NBA draft picks. Once you get beyond the elite few, the NBA draft is truly a crapshoot and there are very few reaches. I think Brian’s post is a reasonable, well thought approach to picking for value and given the different circumstances, the Sonics may have chosen the 20% player. These Sonics cannot afford the risk.
June 29th, 2008 at 11:43 am
are you thinks presti trade ridnour or wilcox for Leandrinho Barbosa?
westbrook / watson
barbosa / durant/ gelabale
durant / green
green / collison / DJ White
collison / petro / Hardin ??
June 29th, 2008 at 11:48 am
why would phoenix take our garbage for their gem?
June 29th, 2008 at 11:48 am
“Why couldn’t we have drafted Love and traded him to Minnesota for Mayo?”
We don’t have Mike Miller to throw in that deal.
June 29th, 2008 at 11:48 am
I love what Presti is doing. There is one common thread with ALL NBA championship teams…the past 15 years they have finished in the top 5 in Defense…so, what does that tell you? You can have superstars…but if your team doens’t play good defense it doesn’t matter…Thats why the Suns, Mavs, Nuggets and so on will NEVER win a championship until they figure out the defense…People are forgetting…at the Point…you don’t want or need him to score 30 points a game…he will grow into a good offensive game…he’s athletic and can get to the rim…that with great defense makes this a way better pick than what was out there…
The Future….
PG - Westbrook (excellent defense)
SG - Durant (ok defender, but heigth makes up for deficiency)
C - Swift (if he returns to pre-injury form..3 blk per game guy)
SF - Green (has shown could be great defender)
PF - Ibaka (Will be a 6′11” freak…would compliment Swift well)
June 29th, 2008 at 11:59 am
plus…why do you think Bayless dropped to 11? He can shoot and score? Why wouldn’t the Bobcats draft him? he is not a pure point…doesn’t lay stellar defense…so the Bobcats went with Augustine…
Everyone complains about Ridnour…a pure point with no defense…and what did that get us? Westbrook looks to be a more athletic Watson…they call him a longer and taller Rondo…well, did you guys see Rono in the finals? Did you see his defense??? Westbrook is 19 and will be a stud….
This team…finally has a vision…DEFENSE…DEFENSE…Swift is our main key…
June 29th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
I love this pick.
You are talking about a PG (most valuable position either than C), who is already a great defender, and has freakish athleticism, quickness, a huge wingspan, and hops. Furthermore, hes hungry and works his butt off to get better (this shows in the monumental improvements he made in his game in one year).
Its going to take some time, but this guy seriously has more upside than ANYONE in the draft IMO (including Rose) depending on how his offense develops. Westbrook is a high percentile shot at a quality player, but I also don’t think that people appreciate his superstar potential.
How many PGs have that combination of athleticism, defense, and drive in this league?
June 29th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Last year, I thought Green was a reach. Ok. A year later, who should we have taken at #5? I am not seeing a clearly better option. I think this year will prove to be the same.
The other thing that Presti has to figure on is KD or Green physically developing to the point of playing the majority of minutes at the 4. If you take Love, then you can end up with core pieces that are completely redundant.
I think they will try to move Wilcox. Based on Hollinger’s PER ratings Earl Watson was #20. At least 8 of the guys ahead of him are untouchable. So, there is little room for upward movement. One could trade on problem for a different type of problem, but that doesn’t move the team too far forward. Luke
June 29th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
I’m fine with the Westbrook pick. The kid is fast, has good handles, and great athleticism. His shot look fluid. Good defender. Sure we took him a little high. But I’m ok with that. He isn’t the sexy pick because he needs some work offensively. But considering how poor our D is……..its not a bad thing to have a lock down defender. I agree with Baker. Picks 4-7 were all pretty much the same. Maybe even 4-9. This was not a strong draft. Look how far Bayless and Lopez fell. Obviously it would have been a mistake to pick them at 4 too.
Ibaka. Hate this pick. Really wanted Darrell Arthur at this pick.
Love DJ White.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
Why couldn’t we have drafted Love and traded him to Minnesota for Mayo?
Probably because we didn’t have a Mike Miller to include in the deal.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
So, who will be the low post player on the Sonics this next season? Wilcox? Sene? Petro? Swift? Durant? Green? Collison?
Who will the guards toss the ball inside to? Who will play above the rim? Which big man will be a threat down low?
June 29th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Last year, I thought Green was a reach. Ok. A year later, who should we have taken at #5? I am not seeing a clearly better option. I think this year will prove to be the same.
The other thing that Presti has to figure on is KD or Green physically developing to the point of playing the majority of minutes at the 4. If you take Love, then you can end up with core pieces that are completely redundant.
I think they will try to move Wilcox.
Keeping Luke and Earl will allow Westbrook to grab some minutes from both the 2 and the 1 while limiting Luke and Earl’s minutes a bit. Based on Hollinger’s PER ratings Earl Watson was #20. At least 8 of the guys ahead of him are untouchable. So, there is little room for upward movement. One could trade a problem for a different type of problem, but that doesn’t move the team too far forward. Luke had his worst PER year last year. He was 52nd, with no defense on top of that is terrible. If he just played to his average he would have been somewhere between 24-33. That is solid back up range even with the poor D.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Ah, I see Menace already beat me to the response.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
I’m not in Seattle and didn’t see as many games as I would’ve liked so I don’t know how our season really went outside of the box score, but I’m wondering if getting rid of Wally and West had anything to do with the 2nd half rise of Jeff Green.
After all, somebody has to score outside of Durant and Wilcox.
This is why I don’t like the Westbrook pick. We don’t really have any good scorers, especially perimeter scorers that could take the doubles off Durant, outside of Durant and Wilcox (and who knows if Wilcox will be on the team next year) so I’m disappointed that a trade to move up didn’t work out.
I’m especially not liking the Antonio Daniels, Corey Brewer comparisons that I’ve been hearing.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Sorry about the double post. The first one was a mistake.
Menace: I think you are right. There would be controversy about who ever we picked at #4 because they all had big question marks. I am glad that we did not pick Bayless. He may turn out to be a good player but I don’t think he is the player that this team needs right now.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Marques Johnson talked with Presti before the draft and told the GM the best guard right now is Mayo, then Wrestbrook and third was Bayless. Presti asked Marques who the best guard of the group will be in three years and Johnson feels Wrestbrook will be the .
greatest star….Presti must agree.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/draftCentral
June 29th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
rocinante nailed it. You guys overvalue draft picks. It is a crapshoot, and stars are few and far between. We are hoping to add one, maybe two players to our 8 man rotation each year. And we did. There is no question in my mind that Westbrook can be in the rotation of a championship caliber team. Is he one of the top two….probably not. But I think he has the potential to be one of those guys that you look back on and realize he was a key figure. A Nate McMillan, Bruce Bowen, Chancey Billups, Rondo type guy. We desperately need perimeter defense. A guy that makes it hard for the other team to score, while creating easy buckets for us. Westbrook does that. He goes from defense to offense as quickly as anyone.
Love is the only guy I worry might have been a better pick. His numbers are frighteningly good. You Lopez lovers are misguided. Bust. Easy. The dude didn’t even shoot over 50% in college. Do you know how freakin bad that is for a 7footer whose game revolves around offense? An inefficient post player who can be single covered by every team in the league…..wow.
White is a lovely pick too. Exactly the kind of player that succeeds at that point in the draft. Productive. Mature.
Ibaka. Well, you just have to hope. I think it is a decent investment. I was hoping for Chalmers down here, but this looks like it was worked out well in advance.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Truthfully, my darkhorse pick was Eric Gordon. I”m not going to lie.
My pg draft board has
Rose
Mayo
Gordon
Bayless
Westbrook.
I don’t know why people are sleeping on Gordon, he was tearing ish up in Indiana last year before all the coaching scandal and injury. The kid is a proven scorer, something that we SORELY need to help out Durant.
Furthermore, Gordon’s defense is not half bad neither.
Westbrook is not even a true point guard. He fills one need (perimeter defense), but I don’t trust him running the offense.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
The Lopez bust factor is very high IMO. Look how far he fell! This was a guy they were projecting to be a top 3 pick at one point. He slid for a reason. I’ve seen a lot better college centers than Lopez who ended up being nothing in the NBA.
Love is really the only other guy that I would have considered at #4. With that said…….I think he is an NBA role player. Westbrook at least has the potential for greatness at the next level. The Sonics needed to improve their overall talent….I think they did that in this draft.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Rocl… You ask and say…
“So, who will be the low post player on the Sonics this next season? Wilcox? Sene? Petro? Swift? Durant? Green? Collison?
Who will the guards toss the ball inside to? Who will play above the rim? Which big man will be a threat down low?”
My thought is…. it does not matter ….. who plays in the low post…….. NEXT YEAR.
It would have been great to get a great forward or center in the draft at #4 - and it will matter who is in the low post in 2 years when Surrant & Green are hitting their stride.
But next year the team will likley be bad - regardless of who we pick. I think you have to draft for the long haul and that means “BPA - Best Player Available”. My guess in Presti felt Westbrook was the guy who could grow into the best player - regardless of position - so he took him.
Also - our need for a point guard is just as great as our need for a “Big” down low.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
I was hoping to get drafted, but for the 26th year in a row I was SCREWED!!!
I did not sign with an agent, so I retain my college status.
Westbrook fills a need. Like GP always says, anybody can score.
Maybe next year we can sign up one of the party faithful for the 2009 NBA draft, endlessly promote the person’s skills that “don’t show up on the stat sheet”.
June 29th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
I like the Westbrook pick alot:
1. We desperatley need an on-ball defender on the perimeter who can slow down opponents PG’s - Both Watson & Luke have been so bad at that.
2. Westbrook was 5′ 10” as a high school senior. He grew about 5 inches over the past 2 years. He played PG all through HS - came to UCLA and they had Collison at PG. I think RW can play PG fine and he does not have to be viewed as a “Combo” guard.
3. Overused word here but…. “Upside” - Westbrook seems to have both the attitude and the athletic ability to be special and who can grow. His “Ceiling” is very high.
4. Defense - Defense - Defense - we need it - RW gives it. This will rub off on other players.
5. We need a PG so bad. Just as much as a center or #4 IMO.
I do not fault Presti for not trading down to get RW later - he likely just did not want to take that risk. Sure - I would have loved to traded down to #6 or #7 or #8 and gotten RW and added another draft pick or player etc. - but who knows if that was really possible?
For better or worse - this is where Sonics fans are dependent on Presti’s scouting - and if he thinks RW was the 4th best player who also fits Seattle well - you don’t want to risk losing him by trading down unless you know you can get another guy you really like.
My guess is - If Presti liked Lopez alot he would have been more likley to trade down a few spots with the idea if I lose RW I can still get Lopez - but that is where he likely felt the gap btween Lopez’s value & RW’s was too great. So be steady and get your guy at #4.
I’m very good with this pick - love it actually.
June 29th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
“Sure - I would have loved to traded down to #6 or #7 or #8 and gotten RW and added another draft pick or player etc. - but who knows if that was really possible?”
Great point. As much as we speculate….it is very possible that trading down wasn’t an option. It takes two to tango.
Memphis didn’t need to trade down. Why take Love at 4 when you can take him at 5? That leaves NY and the rumor predraft was that they liked Westbrook too. So in that case we don’t get him at 6.
June 29th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
“But I think he has the potential to be one of those guys that you look back on and realize he was a key figure. A Nate McMillan, Bruce Bowen, Chancey Billups, Rondo type guy. We desperately need perimeter defense.”
Nobody disputes that. My criticism of the Westbrook pick is that a GM really, really needs to be looking at something more valuable than a 4th option on offense or a career sixth man when he’s picking #4 or #5 overall.
Building successful teams is about stars. Once you have your two stars it is easy to put the secondary/tertiary guys around them. My concern is that for the second year in a row we’ve seen Presti take players who don’t project out as stars, whether they are a defensive upgrade at this point doesn’t really matter. Do I believe that Jeff Green will become a secondary offensive option that can take some pressure off KD? Do I believe that Westbrook will eventually fill that role? Given how the team is currently constructed, would it have made more sense to take a big like Love or Lopez in retrospect?
Westbrook’s chances of becoming that second star rest solely on his offense and ability to get other guys involved…we’ll see if that happens. If it turns out he can’t run a halfcourt offense for 25-30 mpg then it is fair to question the pick. This team needs perimeter defense but it also needs ballhandling and floor leadership out of the PG position. I’m sold on Westbrook’s ability to provide the former but not the latter two.
Major props to Scotty for asking the following question during our roundtable: Who are the 5 best perimeter defenders in the league? Where were they drafted? Hint: Most of them weren’t top 5 overall picks.
June 29th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=DraftGrades-080627
According to ESPN.com, we got an A- in the Draft. Not too shabby, eh? And what do you guys (and gals, if there are any out there) think we do with the log jam at the point?
June 29th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
“And what do you guys (and gals, if there are any out there) think we do with the log jam at the point?”
Ridnour needs to go.
I said yesterday that I would try to send him to the Knicks for Malik Rose.
June 29th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Westbrook shot the 3 pt well in college, but not often enough, and his free throw shooting was not good either. If he can develop an NBA 3 point shot while continuing to penetrate and defend, then he will be special. As I said, he instantly becomes my favorite player on the team (which is a knock on the competition). I would not root against RW just to make Presti look bad.
It is just that Presti failed to maximize. Plus he left a hole at the most difficult to fill position.
June 29th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
I don’t see a star available at 4th this year, I’m not even sure that Mayo will be one (probably a good player statwise but not really sure about his impact)
With Westbrook you pick upside with a great work ethic (not a bad combination) and defense.
Defense is the sure thing in basketball, you can always win a game even when you totally suck offensively if you are a good defensive team. Defense is about effort.
June 29th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
The draft is always interesting. I went back and looked at the past 7-8 years - and there is such a wide variety in terms of how deep the draft is for “stars” in the top 10. Some years there really is just is not much star talent beyond #1-3 picks. Some years even #1 or 2 are busts and there may not be much behind them.
Painful to review and see the Sonics taking R. Swift and a few picks later Al Jefferson & Josh Smith are drafted. That again was an example of a GM (Sund) who drafted for “Need’ more than talent. He wanted a “Center” & said forwards are eisier to get. Big Deal - get talent.
If Westbrook is an example of “Best Player Available” that is fine with me. And, we need a PG as much as a center & PF.
Brewers article in the Times today on the kid from Indiana - White - was interesting. Hopeful - but they make everyone sound great at draft time. We’ll see - I have no clue how good or bad he will be.
June 29th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Westbrook could end up being the closest thing to GP we’ll ever see. A 6-4 PG with great defense, unselfish passing, can run a team, freakish athletic ability.
What’s not to love? Few years from now the kid could challenge Derrick Rose on who’s the better point guard, mark my words.
And I have no problem with having Ibaka overseas for a few years and the DJ White pick either.
All I want to see is for sonics to stay here, Ballmer becoming the owner.
And if next summer we draft BJ Mullens, then we are set.
June 29th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Westbrook could end up being the closest thing to GP we’ll ever see. A 6-4 PG with great defense, unselfish passing, can run a team, freakish athletic ability.
What’s not to love? Few years from now the kid could challenge Derrick Rose on who’s the better point guard, mark my words.
And I have no problem with having Ibaka overseas for a few years and the DJ White pick either.
All I want to see is for sonics to stay here, Ballmer becoming the owner.
And if next summer we draft BJ Mullens, then we are set.
June 29th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Westbrook hussles, has a great work ethic, plays awesome defense; that’s nice, really nice.
But wouldn’t it be nice if he could shoot, had better handles, and was a more proven player in general?
The top 3 picks were all way more proven than Westbrook.
June 29th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Westbrook hussles, has a great work ethic, plays awesome defense; that’s nice, really nice.
But wouldn’t it be nice if he could shoot, had better handles, and was a more proven player in general?
The top 3 picks were all way more proven than Westbrook.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
I’ve worked myself into supporting the picks.
But it does seem odd that 2/3 of our lottery picks have to be “support” players. As fans of a team that lacked high picks for so long, it is hard to accept “safe” choices.
That said, it is clear that Presti tried to move up (for the blue chipper) and down (to get the same player with an added 1st).
Failing that, perhaps ours was the bold choice. That safe choice would have been Love or Lopez. We’ve kind of been there and done that for too many years.
Bayless would have been interesting. I’m so used to seeing dominant guards being selected this high that I assumed he’d be one of them as well.
Sucks we slipped to #4
July 1st, 2008 at 3:42 am
I’m still not thrilled about the pick. However, at this point I just hope that Westbrook can come in and prove all the naysayers wrong.
We may have been better off getting a solid low post player in Kevin Love or Brook Lopez. Or maybe a stronger scoring guard in Eric Gordon or Jerryd Bayless.
But Westbrook definitely has the talent and ability to be a very good player. I’m just not sure if he’ll be a very good scorer.
Defense definitely wins championships. But good offense always beats good defense in the NBA. At least from a one on one stand point.
When MJ or Kobe are in their groove. NOBODY can stop them!
I just hope that Westbrook can improve his offensive game greatly in only a couple of years.
Although I imagine Jeff Green will put up more offensive numbers this next year. We still don’t have a strong 2nd option on the team. And this will hurt Durant greatly as he will be constantly double and triple teamed.
For those that are still complaining about the Jeff Green pick. I’m not sure what you’re seeing or maybe what you’re not seeing.
One poster put it best when they said outside of Oden, Durant, and Horford. Green appears to be the next best player from the 2007 draft.
Look at Yi, Corey Brewer, or Mike Conley. None of those players did much of anything last year.
Jeff Green’s numbers are modest at close to 11 points and 5 rebounds a game in his rookie season. But I’d be very interested to see his numbers from the 2nd half of the season after Wally Z was traded and Green moved into the starting lineup. I imagine his numbers were closer to about 14 - 15 points a game and 6 - 8 rebounds.
I think if Jeff Green can turn into a Scottie Pippen / Lamar Odom type player he’ll be a great player in his own right and a wonderful compliment to KD.
If Westbrook can really improve his scoring and offensive abilities. Then I will be more confident that he will be the 3rd solid piece to the Sonics’ core.
Ideally, Durant will help Westbrook with his offensive and Westbrook can help Durant with his defense.
Lastly, I’m not thrilled to hear similarities between Westbrook and Corey Brewer or Antonio Daniels. Although I’ve also heard people claiming he’s the next GP. I doubt that, but hopefully he’s much better than AD and Brewer.
July 1st, 2008 at 12:21 pm
I was driving to Portland during the NBA draft and the guys on the Portland sports radio (think its called “the fan” or something) said Russell Westbrook was the #1 player on the Blazers board at the time the Sonics picked. I was a little surprised that Westbrook was picked so high, but a lot of people were surprised that Love was picked so high too. I honestly thought the Sonics would pick Love because of his basketball IQ, but I can’t argue with Westbrook’s defense. He will be the closest thing we’ve had to “the Glove” since he was traded. It is going to take him 3-5 years to develop his offensive game but he is already there on the defensive end.
One thing I’ve learned in my short 38 years on this earth…you can teach a defensive player to shoot and pass better, but if you are expecting an offensive player to learn defense then you are fooling yourself. I have never seen a soft defender turn into a defensive stopper…ever.
July 1st, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Good points Stone, Jeff, and ren495 - all good points about Westbrook. Wouldn’t that be cool if Russell turned out to be another Gary or even 75-80% as good as Gary?
July 1st, 2008 at 5:43 pm
“But good offense always beats good defense in the NBA.”–Jeff Brown.
That definitely did not happen in the NBA Finals this year.
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I’m okay with the first pick. I think that the guy we chose at #24 was a bigger disappointment for me. It seemed like a Sund pick by Presti. I tend to agree with the ESPN guys who said that New Jersey and Portland had good drafts.
July 1st, 2008 at 8:49 pm
I believe that presti did not draft Westbrook cause he’s a star…we have our stars already in our team….Durant and Green. Presti is building chemistry, i believe that this is justified by him drafting Westbrook over better talents like “Bayless.” Chemistry in 5 years is more important when you have Green and Durant playing in “All-Star” Levels. I think at best, Westbrook will be the Rondo of our team, not the go-to guy, but the guy that will fill the role enough to be effective.
Overall, i like this pick. I’d rather pick a star for the team, rather than for individual talent.