Team Reconsiders Cleaves Decision
Posted on Sunday, January 29th, 2006 at 7:58 am by Brian Robinson
Management acknowledged their mistake yesterday after a minor cost-cutting move may have cost them a game.
When they cut Mateen Cleaves just prior to his contract becoming guaranteed it was a calculated gamble to save a few bucks. Rick Brunson was healing and Damien Wilkens showing potential to play some PG. With a three guard rotation of Allen, Ridnour, and Murray in place and the two starters eating up the bulk of the minutes there was a decent chance that Cleaves would never see the floor. Unless Ridnour got injured prior to Brunson returning his salary would simply be money out of pocket.
Of course then Ridnour missed a game before Brunson was ready. The Sonics, uncomfortable with Wilkens running the offense were forced to play Flip Murray 45 minutes against the Dallas Mavericks and they lost a game that they may have had a chance winning. The next day management acknowledged their mistake by bringing Cleaves back on a 10 day contract.
Anytime a roster decision is made with dollars in mind rather than wins it is cause for criticism by fans who righteously expect their franchise to compete in a big dollar industry. With the Sonics only 3 games out of the playoffs each and every win and loss has huge implications. While it is good to see the team admitting to their mistake by bringing Cleaves back into the fold it should not excuse their penny pinching earlier in the year. Should they finish a single game back from the playoffs that Dallas loss will loom large.
At this point it seems that the fans and management are committed to moving Reggie Evans to another location and that is probably the right course of action. They need however to remember the lesson learned at PG when they make their decision and fill the bench gap left in Evans departure. Evans should be moved for value. Something needs to come back that has the potential to help the franchise either this year, or in the future. If not we could find that his absence costs us yet another game this year when injury or circumstance creates a need for him.
January 29th, 2006 at 9:08 am
Interesting opinion but I’ve seen no quotes from the Sonics making an admission. Sure the team was penny pinching. Mateen wasn’t playing. It made some sense to release him, except I believe he would have helped a lot just at practice. I bet that Hill has insisted on bring in PG help and the team had been trying to work a trade but couldn’t get one done. This isn’t necessarily a good sign. As far as Evans goes, he isn’t contributing at all, he’s free to go at the end of the season, what difference does it matter if the Sonics get anything in return. If you trade a key player you better get a key type player back. When you trade a bench warmer who doesn’t want to be on the team it really doesn’t matter what you get back. Moore, Vlad, Petro, Pot, Fortson, Nick all play his position. If injury costs the Sonics a game and Evans isn’t around to bring his matador defense and paddle hands/black hole/brick laying offense then so much the better. Why do you think that guy can’t get off the bench.
January 29th, 2006 at 10:10 am
I don’t think not having Mateen Cleaves cost them the Dallas game. It’s very hard to make the arguement that having him on the roster makes them win that game IMO.
I think you could make a better arguement saying that not having Hill coaching and playing both Swift and Petro from game one this season will cost this team more than one game over the course of the season. We’re seeing what 10 games of confidence has done for both of those two, imagine if they had 40 games under thier belts at this point.
January 29th, 2006 at 10:40 am
It’s very easy to make the argument that not having Cleaves MIGHT have cost us a lot of games, especially the Dallas game. We played a shooting gaurd 45 minutes at point and our PG play was crap for three straight quarters. That’s a very easy argument to make.
January 29th, 2006 at 10:53 am
Where did this info come from, I’d be really interested in seeing the quote. It seems unusual coming from this ‘don’t blame us’ front office. I’d have done the same thing, I love Mateen, but, if it wasn’t for us, he’d have been competing against Barrett, Bynum, Emmett and all the other NBDlers. all year. Save the million.
January 29th, 2006 at 12:56 pm
Another interpretation would be that this was the plan all along. Waive him, then re-sign him to a short-term contract. The ultimate result is they shed a guaranteed contract, save some money, and gain a pawn in any prospective trade move that would require bringing back an extra guy.
January 29th, 2006 at 1:02 pm
I heard that comments along the lines of admitting the mistake were made in the chalk talk that morning offered to season ticket holders. Of course, I couldn’t make it, but I talked to other ticket holders who did go and that was the impression they were given.
January 29th, 2006 at 2:13 pm
You can sign a player to two 10 days contracts then you have to guarantee the rest of the year if you want him for more. That basically can get the Sonics to the trade deadline and another decision whether to keep him after that.
January 29th, 2006 at 3:01 pm
For the season hoopstats.com calculates that Luke won only about one-third of his head to head matchups for the season. The good news is that in January he is winning right about half.
January 29th, 2006 at 3:06 pm
For comparison Ray Allens wins 75% matchups, Lewis 50%.
Winning judged by overall efficiency rating (points and everything else though the weighting isnt great)
No one other Sonic wins over half the matchups.
January 29th, 2006 at 3:25 pm
To make Luke’s improvement pop further and fairer, I guess he was only winning around 25% of his matchups before January and now 50% since and blended into a total season average it becomes one-third. that is a huge and welcome change.
By comparison to other elite point guards on % matchups won:
(approximate not exact %)
Iverson 75%
Nash 75%
Arenas 66%
Kidd 75% (but really off last night)
Billups 75%
Paul 66%
Davis 60%
Parker 68%
Miller 75%
Marbury 60%
bibby 50%
Cassell 50%
So a 50% matchup win percentage would put him somewhere around 10-15th among starting point guards.
January 29th, 2006 at 3:53 pm
Ideally you’d like your players to do well, steady against all opponents. It can be of some value to look at splits by opponent .500 & better vs sub .500 teams. Luke scores 4 pts less, dishes 2.5 assists less, grabs 1 rebound less against the better teams compared to the lottery teams in about 10% less minutes
.
Collison is the other Sonic that has this type profile- 5 pts 2 rebs less against the better teams but with a third less minutes to explain part but not all the change.
Murray 3 pts 1 rebs more against better teams in 20% minutes.
The minute change at PG is interesting by itself but I won’t venture a sweeping generalization because it probably should be judged game to game not purely on average stats.
Ray & Rashard are close to the same against good and worse teams but Ray’s scoring is slightly up +1.7 against the better teams, Rashard’s slightly down -1.
January 29th, 2006 at 3:54 pm
correction- Murray “20% more minutes”
January 29th, 2006 at 3:58 pm
I’m saying that the action was basically an admission. They took a gamble that it wouldn’t matter, then it did matter for a game, so they reconsidered. Anytime you cut a guy, then bring him back two weeks later how else can you read it?
Lack of depth at PG really hurt us in that dallas game. There’s no guarantee that we win with him, but there’s no doubt that we suffered from having a lack of options when they initiated their press. Besides I’m biased on this issue. I wanted to stir up controversy.
January 29th, 2006 at 4:12 pm
For the season Luke is 26th among point guards in points scored, 10th on assists. For last ten games he is about 10th best on points and 5th on assists. A good month on offense.
January 29th, 2006 at 4:29 pm
Luke makes what is probably his first entry into top 10 best for point guards on overall offense tendex rating at 6th best over the last 10 games. For the full season he is somewhere near 20th.
Lewis is 4th among SFs, Allen 3rd among SGs. If that lasts, that would be 3 close to top 5.
New Jersey is close to that too. Phoenix will be when Amare comes back. San Antonio was Duncan and two close to top 10 and a great bench. Detroit has 4 top 10 and top 20.
The Clippers are close to three in top 10 with Maggette. Miami has three near top 10 and a top 20. Dallas three top 20. Cleveland two top 5, two top 20. Denver two top 10, one top 20. Washington 4 top 20. Philly three top 10, one top 20. Memphis 3 top 20. Those are the highest I found.
The Sonics are pretty competitive on star power. But not that strong the rest of the team. Work to do on that.
January 29th, 2006 at 5:15 pm
“I heard that comments along the lines of admitting the mistake were made in the chalk talk that morning offered to season ticket holders.”
Nobody from the front office spoke. Bob Hill commented that it wasn’t a good move (not in so many words, but that was the gist), but he and Sikma and Ralph Lewis were the only ones who spoke yesterday morning. So there was no admission from the front office that I heard yesterday.
I read this column as the actions being more of a comment on the mistake than anything that was said and quoted. And I completely agree with that.
January 29th, 2006 at 5:18 pm
does this mean sonics in trading flip for a PG? glad sonics signed cleeves and bring back the energy! We really need a defensive. athletic guard who can play both P/SG. how about this…Rashard mccants + filler for flip and pot and reggie
January 29th, 2006 at 5:19 pm
TK,
I was wondering if you could crunch some numbers on Anthony
Carter? Alot of the Reggie/Minny rumors have centered on Banks, but I think AC would be a much better fit. A veteran with good assist/TO is what this team needs desperately.
January 29th, 2006 at 6:16 pm
It is an intersting thought.
Anthony Carter -1.5 +/- on the court,
offensive efficiency for Minnesota lower when he is on court team eFg 47.5% compared to off 49.1% but defense is better by a similar amount so it is a wash,
38% eFg on jumpers, (banks 34%, murray 35%) carter onlu 1 for 9 from three point so it looks like he lack the threeball of the other two but is a n equal or better in between shooter to produce this jumper %.
36% of shots are inside drives converted at 43% FG, (banks 34% of shots for 67%Fg, murray 32% of shots for 57% fg)
overall a 40 eFg shooter, (banks 45%, murray 42%)
shooting is better in the clutch 50% (banks 100% but probably only a few shots, murray 50%)
draws fouls 10.6% of the time (Banks 13%, Murray 11%)
handling rating 15.2 (banks 11 murray 15.7)
passing rating 7.5 (banks 5, Murray 7.2
(higher is better on these last two)
So he is more of a true point, but less of a scorer 12 points per 48 compared to banks 16, murray 21.
January 29th, 2006 at 6:19 pm
Carter a/to 2.5, banks 1.4, murray 1.65.
January 29th, 2006 at 6:23 pm
carter one year deal probably for the minimum so he would only take murray or evans;
banks at $1.7 million would take both and that seems too much (if other alternatives are presented) though it probably doesnt really matter for half a season if you like banks, or inclusion of somebody else (if the wolves can be convinced and the deal is reasonable to both sides)
January 29th, 2006 at 6:34 pm
Carter is only 30, turns 31 this summer. could return if you liked him.
Still would really only make sense if you were betting in favor of making the playoffs and needed a 12 minute guy.
January 29th, 2006 at 6:35 pm
if we’re gonna sign someone for the minimum it should be will conroy
January 29th, 2006 at 7:10 pm
Conroy is another option this year or next.
NBDL stats for Tulsa look pretty good but hard to tell if that indicates NBA level performance ability
30 minutes, 13 pts 50% overall FG, 38% 3pt (15th best on #makes), 70% FT, 5.6 assists (6th) , 3.2 TO, A/TO 1.75 (12th) 4 reb 1 steal
Conroy and Carter are both listed at 6-2 195. The other guard to Luke shoould have some bulk, size if possible
January 29th, 2006 at 8:20 pm
Thanks, TK.
A 12 min guy for just the rest of this season is exactly the kind of player I was thinking about. Minny might include a 2nd round pick if it was for Reggie.
January 29th, 2006 at 8:24 pm
It makes you wonder what position this team would be in had we kept Alex Scales instead of Manteen. Although he was more of a 2 guard, he was very althetic, and probably could have been a decent defender.
January 29th, 2006 at 9:03 pm
Yeah, I’ve thought about Scales too, but we need a true point and that guy is Mateen.
I predict Mateen will start eating Murray’s minutes soon and Flip will keep Reggie company soon. There’s no way Damien loses any minutes as he’s earning his mintues right now and he’s only going to get better.
I think Brian made some good observations based on what has happened. I think it’s fair to say we lost the Dallas game because we didn’t have that point guard, but who knows?
I’m not an Anthony Carter fan at all. If Pop didn’t want him in SA, it’s probably a good bet Hill won’t want him either. Those two coaches seem to be cut out of the same cloth.
January 29th, 2006 at 9:20 pm
Scales NBDL: 26 minutes 42% FG overall 35% 3pt 80% FT 10.7 pts 2.0 assists 1.9 TO A/TO 1.05 2.4 Reb 1.3 Steal
Conroy looks better on paper and more PG like.
January 30th, 2006 at 7:07 am
Rumor has is that Watson is going the the 76ers, faced with the prospect of either going the rest of the year with Murray as the backup PG (with no 3rd option), or Murray going in some trade that doesn’t return a PG, the prudent thing is to resign Cleaves on a 10 day contract to keep your trading options open.
And that is what I think the resigning of Cleaves is mostly about.
Dallas game could have gone the Sonics way had they gone big with Petro and Swift at the end, we don’t know, what we do know is that nearly any backup PG that played or could have come in isn’t on the same level as Luke Ridnour.
January 30th, 2006 at 11:32 am
I would read this as an indication that mgmt still vastly overrates the skill set and overall game of Flip Murray. Cutting Cleaves only made their ill-founded confidence in his talent even more obvious.
January 30th, 2006 at 1:17 pm
Flip couldn’t find the court last year and we were an elite team. I think there’s a direct correlation between our w-l record and him being in the rotation. I’m NOT saying he’s the sole reason, or his ridiculous shots alone cost us games, but moral-wise, I think the whole team deflates a bit when he comes in and hoists up stupid shots with 15 seconds left on the shot clock and no pass attempts have been made.
July 31st, 2008 at 8:20 pm
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