Sonics Season Preview
Posted on Thursday, October 19th, 2006 at 6:56 pm by Scott
Seattle Supersonics
2005-2006 Record: 35-47
Key Additions: Mikael Gelabale, Mo Sene
Key Losses: None
Last year the Sonics were an obvious disappointment to themselves and their fans. Coming off the 2004-05 Northwest Division Championship the team expected continued strength. However with the losses of head coach Nate McMillan, associate head coach Dwane Casey as well as starting center Jerome James and Antonio Daniels they were never able to get positive momentum. 30 games into the season new coach Bob Weiss was fired and top assistant Bob Hill was inserted as head coach. One of his first moves was to insert the teams’ last two first round draft picks into the rotation to get them experience. At the trade deadline the team dealt three players who were not going to be back and in return picked up PG Earl Watson and PF Chris Wilcox. Over the last 26 games they accumulated a record of 14-12 giving them high hopes heading into the upcoming season.
The Sonics had a relatively slow off-season as the team believes that they addressed a good deal of their deficiencies at the trade deadline. They did resign Chris Wilcox for the next three years. In addition they signed last years second round pick Mickael Gelabale to a two year contract. Gelabale is not a player I have seen play in anything more than a scrimmage as of yet, so I asked a fellow blogger who follows the Sonics from France to give a short breakdown of his game. He has long arms, good lateral speed and good positioning which should make him be a good defender but he really lacks strength. On offense, he’s a good midrange shooter and a good slasher. He has a very good shot selection; sometimes maybe too good as he passes up shots at times that he shouldn’t. With the tenth pick in the draft the Sonics selected Mo Sene, another seven foot center out of Senegal. While some didn’t like the selection, there’s a value around the league placed on young talented big men and the Sonics have three of them on the roster.
This year as with the teams of the past few years the offense will again be the strength of the team. With PG’s Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson getting the team out in transition and putting pressure on the opposing teams defense they’ve got a strong 1-2 punch. Sharpshooters Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis return opening up lanes for their teammates as their defender can not leave them airspace to get off uncontested shots. Power Forward combination Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison look to be a nice mix of flash and substance, around the league and by many fans, Collison’s ability to make everything easier for his teammates is often overlooked. Wilcox brings energy and excitement that has not been seen in the Northwest since Shawn Kemp left 10 years ago. The center spot is at this point still up for grabs as youngsters Robert Swift and Johan Petro have both worked out all summer improving their games. In the last few days it appears as though Swift will open the year as the starter. Be on the watch for the rookie Mo Sene who is an early camp favorite of Coach Hill, at the Rocky Mountain Revue Sene was one of the more surprising players in the league blocking over four shots per game. While raw offensively, Hill loves his hustle and determination and presence on defense.
The biggest weakness of the team should be again on defense. With Ridnour, Allen and Lewis all players not known for their defense there is a tremendous amount of pressure on the other players to get stops. Earl Watson is definitely one of the top man defenders in the league, in fact when he’s on the court the team is nearly ten points better per 100 possessions. The young Centers all have the ability to be better defenders than they were last year based on experience alone. Gelabale was known in Europe for his defensive ability and there’s no reason that a player with Chris Wilcox’s athletic ability can not improve on that end of the court with proper coaching. This year Coach Hill gets a full camp to work with the guys to put the defensive system in place that he wants, this should give the team more time to gel on that end of the court. With the full camp comes new assistant coach Gordon Chiesa whose new defensive plan all but eliminates the switching defense and forces the players to accept responsibility for this end of the court. Chiesa was on Jerry Sloan’s staff for years and is respected around the league for his defensive mind and attention to detail. However, unless one of the centers steps up on that end of the court the team will never be better than middle of the road on D.
I believe the goal for this team is to return to its form of 2004-2005 when they won 52 games and the Northwest Division. While I’m not one to believe they’ll get back to that level I feel they’ve got a pretty good chance to win between 44 and 46 games. They’re certain to get overlooked by national reporters because they didn’t make the big off-season moves. What’s not taken into account is they made their off-season moves at the trade deadline last year acquiring Chris Wilcox and Earl Watson. After those deals they were 14-12 in their last 26 games, which would net the team about 45 wins if extrapolated over a full season. Throughout the year the young big men of the Sonics should continue to improve. Combine that with a much more disciplined work ethic instilled by Coach Hill and the addition to Coach Chiesa to the staff I don’t see why they wouldn’t be able to keep that pace up for a full season. With the way the division looks that might be enough to win them another NW Division title.
*Tomorrow this will be able to be found on NBA Blog Preview check back there often to see how other bloggers around the country believe thier teams will be doing this year.
October 19th, 2006 at 7:57 pm
[...] late Seattle Supersonics - SonicsCentral Website: SonicsCentral Author: Scott 2005-2006 Record: 35-47 Key Additions: Mikael Gelabale, Mo Sene Key Losses: None [...]
October 19th, 2006 at 9:41 pm
I shouldn’t jinx the team, but one thing I do is look at every position and say, “what happens if this one particular player gets injured”. Who steps in and what might be the consequences?
They’re covered at point, power forward, and center if any player gets hurt there. But what if either Ray Allen or Rashard Lewis is out for a significant amount of time? Knock on wood the team has been lucky the last couple of seasons. But both Allen and Lewis put in averages of over 38 minutes, or close to it I think. It’s a hefty workload for players who aren’t particularily physically strong. Are they resilient?
Damien Wilkens and Michael Gelabale are the fillins I guess. Are either capable of doing their duty or would they be over their heads as starters? That’s why it’s always nice to have a veteran combo player who can hold down the fort. To me that’s the question mark that no one can answer unless the misfortune happens.
October 19th, 2006 at 9:49 pm
hmm… 14-12. But what was their record when both Watson and Wilcox played? I thought it was more like a 65% winning percentage or something. I honestly think the team will be so good offensively that they should win 50+ games if healthy. They were the best in fastbreak points I thought after the trades… teams that are that good usually win better than 40 some games. (At least over the last several years anyways, based on watching the games).
October 19th, 2006 at 10:00 pm
“14-12. But what was their record when both Watson and Wilcox played? I thought it was more like a 65% winning percentage or something.”
I believe your winning % is just about right with both those two healthy but I had concerns with using just the 26 game sample size as my base. I tended to lean that taking out 4 games in the middle of that stretch and trying to make a point tended to lean in one direction too much.
Also I’d like to thank Shawn for his contribution with the scouting report on Gelabale. Since I did the original mockup for this article I did get the chance to watch him play at the open scrimmage, but I would still not have had the depth of knowledge Shawn did on the topic. So thanks again:)
October 19th, 2006 at 10:02 pm
Everybody talks about Sene’s wingspan as it relates to defense.
I am curious to see if he has the timing to run a lob play and extend past a defender to dunk. It would be pretty awesome if he could turn, step and had hands big enough to palm the ball and do a controlled one handed dunk. Beats a jumphook. If he can get deep position.
October 19th, 2006 at 10:18 pm
The article was comprehensive and sound, a good introduction for readers from elsewhere.
They were indeed 14-12 from the time the first new guy arrived Wilcox Feb 25. (Earl played the next game so if you start counting with both it would be 14-11.) Looking back at it, the team went L, W, L, W, L, etc. consecutively for a month with one deviation before the pattern broke. They went 7-6 followed by 7-6. It was 15 home, 11 road.
Part of the reason it might have seemed like a more impressive stretch was they were 3-9 prior to the trade.
October 19th, 2006 at 11:56 pm
2006-07 Seattle Sonics Preview
2006-07 Blog Previews visit the other Pacific Northwest team today: the Seattle Sonics. sonicscentral.com is optimistic that the Sonics can return to their winning ways after a d…
October 20th, 2006 at 3:06 am
Thanks for the link !
I have similar expectations for this season. About 45 wins and a 4th (if we win the Northwest division) or 8th seed
October 20th, 2006 at 8:45 am
I am more optimistic than 45 because they score their points easier than they did two years ago under McMillan and then they did before the trade. Keep in mind they started putting up offensive numbers that we haven’t seen since 2001 I think..
(Most Fastbreak points in a game by the Sonics since 2001, or maybe it was highest FG%) and I think they also had the most fastbreak points for a team in any game last season. So if they keep those kind of offensive stats up with the balance they have, I would be surprised if they do not reach 50 wins UNLESS they turn over the ball too much, and I guess they are doing that a lot so far in the preseason; however I would expect that to go down with Ridnour, Watson, Allen, and Lewis getting more minutes.
Also, we had really bad team chemistry and major weakness at the backup PG spot last year before the trades with mostly the same roster that got us 52 wins. We lost a lot of close games before and after the trade, and if they can figure out how to win those, they should do a lot better. I wonder what their Point Differential Margin was after the trades, because it seemed like when we did win we won easier than we have in awhile.
It was a strange situation because most teams don’t have teams that win 37 games or so with players that made it to the second round of the playoffs the year before, so I’m optimistic that they are better than 45 wins– I think they are more talented than the team that won 52, so I think that is attainable; for sure at least on the offensive end. Of course I don’t think they will win 60 or anything like the teams did when I watched them in the 90’s, but I think that they might parallel the team of 92-93 and get to 55 wins, because I think Luke will be somewhat consistent this year on the midrange shot and Nick is going to be better, as will at least one of the centers by the end of the season. I guess since they don’t have any major holes my reasoning is that they should win a good number of games, with the only drawback being that some players don’t have much experience, but the reality is that there are a lot of players who have been around to the playoffs before on the team, so it should help them bounce back to that level perhaps a little quicker than people have envisioned– as well as the coaching is simply much better. Weiss just wasn’t equipped to coach at an NBA level as a head coach.
October 20th, 2006 at 8:59 am
Before training camp, I was thinking 46-48. Since that time, I feel more confident about the bench (positions 1-4). I’m less optimistic about the center position. I think the triple towers are all still quite a bit away from playing consistent basketball. They will shine at times, but also make some critical mistakes that result in a few losses. Right now, i’ll pick a number around 42. We’ll see how the final preseason games pan out. I may revise that number a bit on Halloween day.
October 20th, 2006 at 1:11 pm
I suspect we’d be fine if Shard went down — we’d lose some scoring punch, but I think Wilkins and Gelabale between them would give us enough points to go on with, and our D would certainly be better. Ray’s the only indispensable man on this team (if he goes down for any length of time, the Sonics will be back watching ping-pong balls again this year).
October 20th, 2006 at 2:14 pm
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March 21st, 2007 at 6:19 pm
Linked
To be upset over what you don’t have is to waste what you do have
July 8th, 2007 at 11:40 am
Aaron
Who is going to comment this?
March 26th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Why not contact the individual NBA players, like Shaquille O’Neal et al., to urge their owners/NBA board members to reject the move of the Sonics to Oklahoma City