Transaction Analysis: Trade Deadline SpecialBy Kevin PeltonFor Hoopsworld.com Feb. 19, 2004 As usual, the trade deadline wasn't as exciting as the rumors would have you believe beforehand, but we still got four deals, one of them a blockbuster that alters the face of the Eastern Conference. "Page 23" breaks down these deals, as well as Sunday's Atlanta-Milwaukee-New York three-way swap.
To Atlanta: C Michael Doleac, C Joel Przybilla
Player MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP Thomas 32.0 14.1 4.9 2.1 .525 7.3 0.28 .477 63 Przybilla 6.6 0.2 2.0 0.6 .568 14.5 0.62 .274 -5 Van Horn 33.5 16.4 7.3 1.8 .549 10.5 0.10 .503 115 Doleac 14.9 5.0 4.1 0.7 .480 13.2 0.08 .459 20 Mohammed 17.7 6.5 5.0 0.4 .525 13.7 0.01 .482 48 TS% = points/(2*(fga+(.44*fta))) Pass = 50*((ast/min)^2)*(ast/to) Eff is per-minute efficiency, my own formula explained here VORP = (Eff - replacement level [.43])*min
How much does emotion play a role in the evaluation of NBA players?
It's a valid question. Basketball, like any sport, is emotional in its very nature. Arguably, few sports are more emotional, given the relatively constant action on the court and the close connection with fans. That describes precisely why, while I follow all three major American professional sports, basketball is the only game I really prefer attending to watching on TV.
Emotion, then, is a great thing when we're watching a game. When we're making critical decisions about the direction of a franchise, emotions are terrible.
Paul DePodesta, the recently named general manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers and formerly the assistant GM in Oakland, addressed the role of emotion in speeches he recently gave for Credit Suisse First Boston and Legg Mason. Unfortunately, the transcripts of these speeches are no longer available on the Internet, possibly because of DePodesta's new employer.
Fortunately, I happened to read one of them before it was excised, and it was quite educational. DePodesta recalls, during his time with the Cleveland Indians, that the team chose to trade second baseman Jeff Kent in part because one scout believed he had "a weak hack". So weak, alas, that Kent went on to hit 20 home runs during each of his six years in San Francisco.
We can laugh -- silly baseball. But is that any different than deriding an NBA player for being too soft, or complaining that he never shows up for big games?
So we turn to Keith Van Horn, a player against whom both of the above charges have been leveled. In the latter case, there's a statistical justification -- we all remember Van Horn's poor Finals performance against the L.A. Lakers, and John Hollinger's calculations in Pro Basketball Prospectus place him amongst the players who decline the most in the playoffs.
As to softness, well, that's one of those places where emotion likely hurts our analysis. Softness is a problem when it shows up through poor rebounding or stops the player from getting to the free-throw line enough to keep his shooting efficiency up.
Neither is true in Van Horn's case; he ranks amongst small forward leaders in true shooting percentage and rebound rate.
Van Horn certainly has his weaknesses, particularly on the defensive end, but he's a good player. Unfortunately, their emotional reaction to his play keeps many people from recognizing that fact.
What I find particularly comical is that teams keep trading Van Horn only to acquire players with similar weaknesses. Neither Glenn Robinson nor Tim Thomas is a defensive stopper or physical presence either; the grass isn't greener on the other side. It was with no small amount of irony that I updated my similarity spreadsheet for this season and found Thomas to be Van Horn's closest comparable.
Similar does not necessarily mean equal. Van Horn is a better shooter (.549 true shooting percentage compared to .525), has a higher possession rate, and is a better rebounder (10.5 rebounds per 48 minutes compared to 7.3). Thomas is a dubious upgrade defensively. Hollinger rated the Bucks 28th in defending starting small forwards last season, and this year (per 82games.com) opposing small forwards are shooting an adjusted 49.2% against the Bucks, as compared to a league-wide 46.9%.
Though they lose the main event of this deal, there are reasons to like it for Isiah Thomas' Knicks. They get 16 months younger at small forward, and -- unless Van Horn foolishly opts out of his contract -- take on no additional contract length.
New York also wins the undercard, upgrading in the middle from Michael Doleac to Nazr Mohammed. People have been trying to act like Doleac is some kind of asset because he shot 47.7% in December and 52.9% in February, but we've got ample evidence Doleac is an inefficient scorer. He has shot 41.7%, 41.7%, and 42.6% the last three years before 44.4% this year, without any free throws or threes to aid that.
Mohammed got written off after an injury-plagued 2002-03 where he played just 35 games, but there's an argument to be made that he's the better player the Knicks get. He's always been an outstanding rebounder, and a decent offensive player -- with the exception of last year, when he shot 42.1%. As a backup big man, Mohammed is solid, and at 26, he still has the potential to develop into a useful starter.
This was an easy trade for Milwaukee to make. They take on a little bit of salary each of the next two seasons, after Joel Przybilla's contract would have expired, but Van Horn is worth the money. His ability to play some power forward increases the Bucks' versatility down the stretch -- though they might not want to count on him in the playoffs.
As for the Hawks, they shed another contract. I didn't really touch on Atlanta's strategy in last week's column on their trade with the Blazers, so I'll do so now. I've long been against the strategy of getting far under the cap, but other analysts have extended my argument that it's tough to sign marquee free agents too far. That's only a problem if you're giving something up in the first place. The Hawks have some good pieces, but it was clear they had to try something new. Even if they don't sign Kobe Bryant, they're better off not spending a ton of money on a poor team that fans don't want to watch.
To Phoenix: F/C Keon Clark, C Ben Handlogten
Player MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP Clark* 22.3 6.7 5.6 1.0 .528 12.2 0.09 .469 70 Handlogten 10.1 4.0 3.2 0.4 .577 15.3 0.04 .522 16 Gugliotta 10.1 2.3 1.9 0.7 .332 8.8 0.25 .346 -26 *2002-03 statistics
This deal is all about the luxury tax. The Suns, for obvious reasons, don't want to pay it, so they agreed to give up two picks to the Utah Jazz to get the Jazz to use their cap space to take on the difference between Gugliotta's contract and Clark's and Handlogten's.
On the court, this deal will have little, if any, impact. Handlogten is out for the season, Clark has played just two games because of ankle surgery and Gugliotta has only seen 304 minutes of action. Clark's a better player when healthy, but the Suns are reasonably deep (and young) up front, so he's nothing more than a role player for them at best. Gugliotta will probably take some minutes from Michael Ruffin, who's started for the Jazz at power forward recently, but it saddens me to say he's a marginal upgrade or none at all at this point.
The most important implications here are economic ones. First, that the Suns would give up two first-round picks implies they're pretty certain the tax will be enforced this season -- not a real surprise, but still nice to know. It also implies that the value of those first-round picks is less than what the Suns save -- around $5 million in salary, about the same in luxury-tax payment, and an uncertain amount in distribution of the NBA's escrow fund.
Utah adds a couple more first-round picks by making creative use of their cap space after getting one and maybe two from Houston with Glen Rice and an extra second-round pick from Sacramento to take on Clark in the first place. These are the kinds of moves people forget about when they say the Hawks' newfound cap room is worthless if they can't sign Bryant. There are lots of other moves to be made with that kind of flexibility.
To Orlando: G DeShawn Stevenson, conditional second-round pick
Player MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP Giricek 29.9 10.2 3.4 1.7 .528 5.5 0.20 .441 16 Stevenson 28.0 11.4 3.3 1.7 .479 5.7 0.21 .433 5
Stevenson is younger and has taken a huge step forward this season, but he's still a marginal contributor and doesn't give the Magic the perimeter shooting ability they want around Tracy McGrady. What does Stevenson do that Keith Bogans doesn't? The second-round pick, on the other hand, may have as much value as either player depending on where it is.
Utah upgrades its own perimeter shooting, which is a huge weakness (the Jazz averages around three three-pointers per game, shooting a dreadful 32.9% from downtown as a team) and gets to audition Giricek for the next 30 games or so to see if they want to resign him when his rookie deal expires this summer. They've got lots of draft picks.
To New Orleans: G Shammond Williams
Player MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP Rooks 9.3 2.3 1.4 0.3 .398 7.4 0.04 .355 -24 Williams 14.2 4.9 1.2 1.7 .536 3.9 1.82 .465 18
Williams gets dealt for the second straight deadline and joins his fifth team in the last three years. His acquisition makes logical sense, because David Wesley is on the injured list and Baron Davis has been banged up. Thank goodness for Darrell Armstrong, who has done yeoman's work this year and can replace Davis in the starting lineup when he's out, but the Hornets were left with the woeful Bryce Drew -- truly one of the worst free agent signings ever, even though he didn't get very much money -- backing Armstrong up.
Now Williams can step into that role, and you can do a lot worse for a third point guard. A lot worse. As for Orlando? New Orleans better owe them one, because they get nothing out of this deal.
To Atlanta: F Chris Mills, C Zeljko Rebraca, G Bob Sura, Milwaukee's first-round pick
Player MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP Wallace 37.3 17.1 6.6 2.5 .515 8.5 0.29 .485 95 James 30.6 10.7 3.2 4.4 .533 5.0 3.08 .472 70 Atkins 18.7 6.2 1.2 2.4 .490 3.1 1.59 .416 -10 Hunter 16.0 3.7 1.0 1.5 .437 3.0 0.73 .370 -10 Rebraca 10.6 3.1 2.3 0.2 .498 10.6 0.00 .432 1 Sura 13.3 3.8 1.9 1.7 .487 7.0 1.81 .448 13
Wow. This is an incredible deal that sets up Detroit as a strong contender, possibly the favorite, for the Eastern Conference crown. From last week's column, you can deduce that I'm not Rasheed Wallace's biggest fan, but he gives the Pistons a third major scoring threat and is a dramatic upgrade over the Pistons' other options up front besides Ben Wallace and Mehmet Okur. Even Okur is primarily a perimeter scorer; Wallace is hardly Kevin McHale in the post, but he certainly can score down low, which improves and balances the Detroit offense.
That would be a great deal in and of itself, given all the Pistons really lose are a couple of low first-round picks. However, this trade is kind of like an infomercial: "But wait, there's more!"
Giving up all their backup guards might have hurt the Pistons . . . except they got a player who has been better across the board, in every single important part of the game this season than any of their three guards, James. I thought the James signing was wasted money this summer, for which I'm eating crow. He's been a decent distributor, a solid scorer, and he's always been a good defender. James probably can't keep up his first-half play and those numbers likely will come down, but Atkins and Hunter were not cutting it as backup point guards.
But wait, there's more!
By dealing Atkins, who has another year left on his deal, the Pistons improve their chances of re-signing Okur this season by getting far enough under the cap to make him a competitive offer.
They achieved all three of these things without giving up a single player averaging more than 20 minutes per game. I am truly in awe, and I tip my cap to the master, Joe Dumars.
On Atlanta's side, this move is good if viewed in isolation. Compared to keeping Wallace, they do much better dumping him and picking up at least one draft pick while also making themselves a worse team down the stretch (improving their own pick). Might they have been better off if they could have moved him for young assets? Possibly. Depends on who those players would have been, which is impossible to say since we weren't in the Hawks front office taking phone calls.
As for Boston, this deal doesn't look very good to me. Basically, they've given up Mills' insurance money (as I recall it, 80% of $6.6 million, which is very much not an inconsiderable sum) and two months of James' services at the point (very likely the difference in holding off the Heat for a playoff spot) to pick up some cash from the Pistons (limited, if I know my CBA, to $3 million), a year of Atkins' contract (and his services, not that they have much value) and a first-round pick that should be in the 20s. Danny Ainge better take somebody better than Joe Forte with that pick.
Two things about this trade: As I mentioned before, it's great news for the Heat, who have already caught the Celtics for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference and now should have the advantage down the stretch, barring injuries. Also, look out for Rebraca, who hasn't played much the last two years but was a good reserve as a rookie in 2001-02 and projects to be the Hawks' starting center despite Przybilla's 12 rebounds in his Atlanta debut.
Kevin Pelton is an intern for the Seattle SuperSonics and is responsible for original content on Supersonics.com. He writes "Page 23" for Hoopsworld.com on a semi-regular basis. He can be reached via e-mail at kevin.pelton@gmail.com.
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