All-Star Teams

First off, this week, let me apologize for the tardiness of this column. A tragic confluence of four Sonics games, two UW home games, a website to run, a paper due, and some desire to have a life left me unable to write before this evening. I'd promise it won't happen again, but I know it will.

Anyways, let's get down to business. Without a lot of time to look at something interesting and new, I'll stick fairly middle-of-the-road this week with a timely discussion of who I would select for the All-Star team that seems likely to generate at least a little controversy.

I'll start with the Western Conference, since my hometown team plays in that conference and thus I follow it slightly more. The starters, as voted in by the fans:

PG Steve Francis (81 VORP)
SG Kobe Bryant (194)
C Shaquille O'Neal (170)
PF Tim Duncan (218)
SF Kevin Garnett (184)

It's pretty hard to find much fault with that group of players, though there has been some hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth in my own fair city because of the omission of Gary Payton in favor of Steve Francis. If I were doing the picking myself, I would probably objectively pick Payton myself, but that's mostly because Francis has been injured all season. There's no rule that says the voters need to pick the player who has been most productive; it's quite possible, much as it pains me to say this, that Francis has already passed up Payton. If I were doing things, I might have substituted Dirk Nowitzki (currently leading the NBA with 237 VORP) for Kevin Garnett, but that's almost splitting hairs. It's not as if Garnett is a leper or something.

For the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to work with the starters as selected by the fans no matter what, so let's move on to the reserves.

Guard:
Well, Payton is a given. His 165 VORP isn't actually tops amongst Western Conference point guards, but given (a) the quality of his defense, which tends to move him up and (b) that he's been an excellent player for many years, he's a given. The leading point guard so far this season has been Steve Nash, who has drawn Sampson-like outside shooting from his unfettered locks to improve on a good 2000-01 season. So far, he's slightly ahead of Payton, with 173 VORP. I think that the defense probably makes up this gap, but Nash is still a lock to be our third point guard. That leaves backup shooting guard, and a fairly interesting discussion. The West is deep at point guard and the forward positions, but fairly thin at center. Well, to be technical, the world is thin on centers, but that's another column. The West is also thin at the off guard position, with Bryant really the only sure thing in my mind. The other primary starters:

DAL: Finley
DEN: (none, Abdul-Wahad before injury, now Van Exel out of position)
GS: Richardson
HOU: Mobley
LAC: Magette
MEM: Battier
MIN: Szczerbiak
PHO: Hardaway
POR: Wells
SAC: Christie
SA: Smith
SEA: Barry
UTA: Stevenson

With Finley currently injured and having an off-season anyway, I think there are only three players that really belong in an All-Star discussion: Brent Barry, Wally Szczerbiak, and Bonzi Wells. That's two outside shooters extraordinaire who don't play much defense and a strong all-around player. VORP narrows it down to Barry and Szczerbiak, with Wells way behind because of injuries and Portland's depth at the swingman positions. Barry and Szczerbiak are extremely close, with a point advantage, 136-135 to Barry. I'd say that because Barry is a more multi-talented player, I'd take him over Szczerbiak in one of the most surprising All-Star picks ever. The fact that he's one of my favorite players doesn't hurt.

Forward:
Not much question in my mind who the next two forwards are in the West. A case could well be made for the Diggler as the MVP so far, though he's gotten little pub as Dallas wins in relative obscurity, while Elton Brand (206) has overcome the critics' claims that he would be worse in the West with consistent 20-10 performances. The last forward is a bit more contested, with two main candidates, Sacramento's Peja Stojakovic and Utah's Karl Malone (of course, in my world, Chris Webber's ankle injury renders him basically ineligible). Both Stojakovic and Malone are identical, so I guess the question is if I would like to have the first of likely many All-Star trips for Stojakovic or perhaps the end of the line for Malone. I'm not a big Mailman fan, but he deserves the nod for his years of service.

Center:
Like I said, there's not much at center for the West; this is clearly the worst position. Again, a run through of starters:

DAL: Howard?
DEN: LaFrentz
GS: Dampier
HOU: Cato
LAC: Olowokandi
MEM: Swift
MIN: Nesterovic
PHO: Voskhul
POR: Davis
SAC: Divac
SA: Robinson
SEA: Long
UTA: Collins

Only two guys stand out to me as being all-star worthy out of this group, Robinson (90) and LaFrentz (103). I personally think Robinson's a center in name only, but that's a matter for another time. Robinson and LaFrentz are both good shot blockers, but Robinson's clearly a much better one-on-one defender than LaFrentz in my opinion. On that, and, again, years of service, Robinson gets the nod.

So, your Statistical Side of the NBA West All-Stars:

Pos	Name	Team
PG	Steve Francis	HOU
SG	Kobe Bryant	LAL
SF	Kevin Garnett	MIN
PF	Tim Duncan	SA
C	Shquille O'Neal	LAL
G	Gary Payton	SEA
G	Brent Barry	SEA
G	Steve Nash	DAL
F	Dirk Nowitzki	DAL
F	Elton Brand	LAC
F	Karl Malone	UTA
C	David Robinson	SA

Now, it is true I've taken only one player from Minnesota and none from Sacramento, both of whom are near the top of the conference, but I've always viewed the All-Star game as an individual reward. Team performance should play some factor -- that also weighed against LaFrentz -- but it should not force us to pick undeserving players. Well, maybe in hindsight I might have gone Stojakovic as the third forward, but whatever.

Off to the Eastern Conference, where there is only some truth to the rumor that the fans would have done a better job of voting had they simply done it randomly. It seems as if voters lent more importance to reputation as opposed to actual performance in the Eastern Conference, but perhaps that's because the severely overrated players are in the East. The starters we're forced to take (from a statistical perspective; as a fan, I want to see Jordan just as much as anyone, of course):

PG Allen Iverson (101 VORP)
SG Michael Jordan (90)
C Dikembe Mutombo (67)
PF Antoine Walker (105)
SF Vince Carter (149)

Like me, you readers out in computer-land may be saying to yourselves, "Gee, those are awfully low, aren't they?" Indeed they are, but a better analysis of how well/poorly the fans voted comes from looking at each player's rank by position. For this purpose, I flip-flopped Jordan and Carter to SF and SG, respectively, with Iverson also a SG. Here are the rankings:

Iverson: 7, SG
Carter: 3, SG
Mutombo: 6, C
Walker: 1, PF
Jordan: 4, SF

Technically speaking, Walker's the only 'correct' starter, but I'm not beholden to VORP by any stretch of the imagination; it's merely a piece of the information I'm interested in, albeit a simple way of comparing players. In the case of both Carter and Iverson, they're both having off seasons as compared to last year. Two weeks ago, I called Iverson the 10th-15th best player in the NBA; that assuredly would make him worthy of starting . . . for the East. Jordan is an extremely special case, and I don't really have a problem with him starting. That leaves Mutombo. I know there are a lot of people out there who think that Dikembe Mutombo is an excellent center. I just don't happen to be amongst them. Mutombo's 67 VORP makes him really only about an average starter. I'm willing to grant him quite a bit of leeway based on his defensive ability, but enough to get him to 100? I think not. There are three centers with about 110 VORP so far this season -- Chicago's Brad Miller (113), Charlotte's Elden Campbell (111), and Indiana's Jermaine O'Neal (109). O'Neal's the best defensive player of the group, but he also plays a fairly significant part of his time at power forward, so I feel it fair to throw him out. Between Miller and Campbell, I'd go with Campbell, mostly because of the fact that this is probably the only time he'll have a chance to make an All-Star game, and I'd like to have that happen. He'd be my starter. To the backups.

Guard:
I can hear you out there with the cry. "Hey, where was Jason Kidd in that discussion? He deserves to start over Allen Iverson; he's probably the MVP!" Okay, likely significantly worse grammar from some readers. Before that, a quick player comparison:

	fg%	ts%	ft%	rpg	apg	spg	topg	ppg	a/to
Player A	37	42	83	7.1	9.9	2.0	3.4	13.8	2.95
Player B	45	46	78	4.9	10.2	1.5	3.1	16.0	3.30

How would I compare these two players (assuming they played similar minutes, which in reality they have)? Looking at the shooting percentages, as well as scoring averages, it occurs to me that Player B is a significantly better scorer than Player A. The higher assists and assist/to ratio tell me that Player B is likely a better distributor than Player A as well. Player A owns distinct advantages in rebounding and steals, but based on just the information I see here, I'd have to conclude definitively that Player B was a better player.

As I'm quite sure you've already figured out, this is a trick, and a dirty one. Player A is Ason (still no J, look at that ugly 36.6% from the field!) Kidd, while Player B is Andre Miller of Cleveland. Are you going to sit here and tell me you picked Player A, just by the statistics? I didn't think so. Yes, New Jersey has improved significantly this year, but Kidd is just a part of that improvement. Todd MacCulloch has shored up the center position after being signed as a free agent, Kenyon Martin has improved in his second season (as could be expected), and Kerry Kittles' return has also bolstered New Jersey. Kidd has undoubtedly improved the Nets defensively, as he is one of the league's better defensive guards. But good enough to be a better player than Miller? In my humble opinion, no.

And, of course, that's taking the leap of faith that Miller is the best point guard in the East, which is no closed book. Miller ranks second in VORP to Milwaukee's Sam Cassell (136 to 129, with Kidd incidentally at 66). I'm not convinced Cassell is the best pint in the East either. I'd say it's between him and Miller, with Kidd and Charlotte's Baron Davis fighting it out to be the third best. Of course, I could be way wrong on this, and I'm sure I'll get e-mail to that effect.

So, Miller and Cassell are two of my guards, since the starters are both shooting guards by trade. That leaves one more shooting guard. The two main contenders are Reggie Miller (171) and Ray Allen (159). Because he plays for a better team, has historically been better, and is, in my opinion, a better defender, I'm going with Allen at this spot. It does pain me to leave off Miller, who I think is rather underrated.

Forwards:
One of the problems with doing All-Stars for the East is that a great many of the players play more than one position, making it tough to assign them when doing it in a fixed manner. Two of these guys are Paul Pierce (192) and McGrady (170) are two of the East's three best players according to my system (oddly, Miller, who didn't make the squad, rates as the second best). I've decided they're both forwards; they're also both locks to make the team. The East is remarkably weak up front. Antoine Walker (105) rates the East's best power forward, but couldn't even dream about the All-Star game if he were stuck in the West. In the same boat is Atlanta's Shareef Abdur-Rahim, who at 104 rates a clear number two but was never considered a potential All-Star in the West.

Centers:
No real discussion here, as I've already concluded that Campbell is my man. A brief digression, however. Brad Miller just misses at center, Reggie Miller just misses at shooting guard, and Andre Miller makes the cut at the point. Throw in swingman Mike Miller, and the East is pretty dominated by guys named Miller. Just thought you might like to know.

So, your Statistical Side of the NBA East All-Stars:

Pos	Name	Team
PG	Allen Iverson	PHI
SG	Michael Jordan	WAS
SF	Vince Carter	TOR
PF	Antoine Walker	BOS
C	Dikembe Mutombo	PHI
G	Andre Miller	CLE
G	Ray Allen	MIL
G	Sam Cassell	MIL
F	Paul Pierce	BOS
F	Shareef Abdur-Rahim	ATL
F	Tracy McGrady	ORL
C	Elden Campbell	CHA

So, again a top team gets the ole' screw-gee from the Statistical Side of the NBA, in this case the New Jersey Nets. In my opinion, however, this is both fair and fitting. Why? Because, to me, the Nets' success is really based on a true 'team' effort, as they have five solid starters, but no excellent ones. And besides, they already have Byron Scott as the coach.

Thus concludes another column. Nets/Kidd fans and anyone with an idea for a future column, direct your complaints and suggestions to kpelton@prosportswriters.net.

When he's not covering the Seattle SuperSonics for SonicsCentral.com or BskBALL.com, Kevin Pelton is crunching statistics for his weekly column at ProSportsWriters.net. He can be reached via e-mail at kevin.pelton@gmail.com.