Why Gary Payton Should Retire a Sonic
The old saying goes that you write what you know. The same theory applies at SonicsCentral.com, though in a slightly different manner. Here, our columnists are largely writing about what they care about for their first real column. That's why last Friday you read SonicJoe's comments about Wally Walker and this Wednesday you'll read another look at the Sonics' CEO from HeavyD. I'd venture the guess already that Sonic Fan Since will be discussing his new favorite Sonic, Vladimir Radmanovic, tomorrow. As for me, I'd like to think that it's more difficult to pick a most common theme -- after all, at Bskball.com I've covered a multitude of topics. However, I know deep down that there is one issue that I'm connected with now -- Gary Payton. By way of background for those of you who aren't familiar with me, I helped found along with SonicJoe and three Sonic fans, the KGP (Keep Gary Payton, or Keep GP ... the three have been used interchangably). You can find a link to our website on the bottom of this page. In that position, my quotes appeared in the Seattle P-I and on Fox Sports Northwest's Northwest Sports Tonight and KOMO News. So today, perhaps for the first time anywhere, I'll lay out the reasons behind my feeling that the Sonics should Keep GP. 1. Non-Basketball Reasons I don't like the word intangibles. If something can't be measured somehow, it's often times not worth discussing. However, there are cases where intangibles fit, and this is one of them. While the fact that Gary Payton is a lifelong Sonic makes no difference to whether they win or lose, it has value in my book. The one-team player seems to have gone the way of the dodo in today's NBA. Just this off-season, we saw one of the NBA's longest standing one-team players, Hakeem Olajuwon, bolt from Houston to Toronto via a sign-and-trade deal in free agency, lured by the almighty dollar. Another one-team paragon, San Antonio's David Robinson, flirted with the idea of replacing Olajuwon in Houston before returning to the Spurs. Again in that case, Robinson did not feel that San Antonio's offer reflected the respect he felt he had earned. In these cases, I am torn. I can see how both sides would expect loyalty from the other side to result in a better deal for them, and in both cases it is reasonable. If I'm Robinson, I would hope that the Spurs think enough of my body of work for them that they'd pay me slightly more than my current value. On the other hand, if I'm San Antonio, I'd expect somewhat of a hometown discount. Obviously, both sides can't have their cake and eat it to, so a compromise is in order. San Antonio and Robinson worked one out; Hakeem and Houston could not. Olajuwon's departure from Houston meant that, by my rough estimation, only four players -- Robinson, Indiana's Reggie Miller, and Utah's John Stockton and Karl Malone -- have longer active one-team careers than Payton. Payton's rookie season -- 1990-91 -- doesn't seem that long ago (heck, I can even remember it), but the 11 years have produced a great deal of turnover in the NBA. Another statistic that I noticed while doing some unrelated research for a column was that Payton was the only first round draft pick (of 108) between 1990 and 1993 who was still active and still with the franchise he was drafted by. That's amazing. So, yes, in my opinion, it would be extremely meaningful if Payton were to be able to play his final game in Key Arena, have his jersey hoisted to the rafters the next season, and go into the Hall of Fame as a Sonic. It would be all the more meaningful if Payton retired having never donned another NBA team's jersey. "Mr. Sonic", Nate McMillan, was only a Sonic. So was "Downtown" Freddy Brown. Why shouldn't Payton be allowed to join them? 2. Basketball Reasons In my opinion, such intangible arguments, nice as they may be, are basically superfluous. That's because there's nothing whatsoever to suggest that Payton should be traded to make the Sonics a better basketball team. Payton is 33, but he's surely far from retirement. Arguably, Payton's best season of his career came a year ago, in 1999-2000, as he added a rebounding dimension to his game. Last season, Payton's numbers fell off slightly, but not a significant amount, and perhaps attributable only to a nagging groin injury that bothered him throughout February. More and more, the evidence seems to be pointing to players enjoying longer careers than ever before. How long have jealous fans been predicting that Karl Malone and John Stockton were due for a drop-off in performance? Why, it seems as far back as perhaps even 1996 pundits were questioning whether Stockton to Malone could last forever. Young players have come and gone all the time throughout the duo's career. Payton and Kemp themselves were once considered the next Malone and Stockton. Consider the fact that Kemp was essentially washed up last season while the Mailman continued on his path to history. And Stockton, while now playing reduced minutes, was still rated the second most efficient point guard in the NBA last season by my rating system (with Payton on his heels as number three). Said rating system also has provided me with a better understanding of the aging process. Taking the average rating of players in their first year, second year, etc. gave a baseline of the average effect of aging. I was surprised to find that players don't really change nearly as much as I thought. In fact, the negative effect doesn't really go past about 1% until a player is at least 35 or 36 years old. Payton's 33, and has bucked the aging trend until last season; he could be playing productively as a starter until age 37 or so (the 2005-06 season). Most of the offers provided for Payton were nothing to shout about. Two offers seemed to be the most likely to actually pry him away from the Sonics; Minnesota's package of guard Terrell Brandon, forward Wally Szczerbiak, and center Rasho Nesterovic; and Portland's deal of guards Damon Stoudamire and Bonzi Wells and forward Dale Davis. Neither offered the Sonics the young big man with potential they coveted. Nesterovic suffered the sophomore slump severely last season, while the aging Davis has never been strong offensively, which the Sonics would need if they were to add into the deal their only scoring big man, Vin Baker. Also, questions abound about both points (oddly, both Oregon natives, while Payton went to school in the state). Stoudamire has been an average point guard, if not worse, since landing in Portland. Nevertheless, he would bring a hefty price tag -- a contract that, at 56 million over the next four years, is bigger than Payton's. The Brandon model also starts at over 10 mil per season. Now, Minnesota fans want the team to unload Brandon as a result of his comments that he'd like to become a reserve starting next season. While Brandon had a nice year last year, those comments and his age -- 31, only two years younger than Payton -- make him a poor solution. Wells and Szczerbiak are both nice players, but they are also both swingmen. With Desmond Mason, Rashard Lewis, and Vladimir Radmanovic the future of the team, what on earth would it need more swingmen for? Finally, in terms of basketball rationale, there's the obvious risk inherent in going with young players. Too often, a veteran player will actually manage to outlast a younger one he is traded for 'in the name of the future'. I could name countless examples, but I'll stick to two in particular. Both are local. In 1972, the Sonics decided that another star veteran point, Lenny Wilkens, might cause attitude problems if he was still around after losing his coaching position. He was dealt to Cleveland for young guard Butch Beard. Beard spent one season as a reserve in Seattle before being dealt on to Golden State for Walt Hazzard -- completing a neat circle; Hazzard was the player Seattle had initially dealt to get Wilkens. He played one season with the Sonics, buried deep on the bench, before retiring. So Seattle had gotten one decent year of bench play for Wilkens, who was still going strong as a star for the Cavs and later the Blazers. Then there is the case of the Mariners, who got lucky the other way. In 1996, they traded young outfielder Darren Bragg to the Red Sox for veteran lefty Jamie Moyer. Five years later, Moyer is a 20-game winner for the M's; Bragg is sitting in AAA, largely washed up. So the young do not always outlast the old. Come opening night, I'll have the opportunity to cheer for Gary Payton and the Sonics. May it be that way until he decides to call it a career -- on his terms, not that of Sonics' management. |
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