April 22, 2002

Well, game one is in the books, and none too pretty, might I add. As fans, I think we have a disturbing tendency sometimes to look at a game that's disappointed us and say "Our team played really bad." Often, we don't even think about what the other team did right. And the Spurs did a lot right. They didn't win the Midwest division on accident, or by a fluke. When they are getting offensive contributions from their backcourt (Steve Smith and Tony Parker combined for 38 points yesterday, and Antonio Daniels was also in double-figures off the bench), the Spurs are downright unbeatable. Saturday's game was yet another demonstration of that.

Fortunately for the Sonics and we fans, odds are that Parker will not score 21 points and make all three of his three-point attempts again in this series. No matter how much Spurs fans rave about his 'special' qualities, water seeks its own level, and I seriously doubt he'll play over his head again. I also read one silly Spurs fan who commented about how great it was that Parker 'held' Gary Payton to 19 points. Well, it occurs to me that the only thing which kept Payton from scoring about 25 was Nate McMillan smartly benching him in the fourth quarter, so I'm not about to nominate Parker for All-Defense yet.

But it is a good point in the fact that Payton didn't really go off on Parker. And if the rookie can keep Payton right around his typical level of 22 points and nine assists, that frees up stopper Bruce Bowen -- who should be first team All-Defense -- to completely make Brent Barry a non-factor. As if he needs it, Bowen has serious help. Maybe it's just me, but I question how much Barry has left in the tank. He's played more minutes already this season than ever before in his career, and has been beat up in the month of April. Not to be too pessimistic or anything, but I would be surprised if Barry scored more than 15 points -- he averaged better than 14 this season -- this series.

I really think the guards are the keys to this series. If the Spurs' guards can play even with the Sonics' duo, the Spurs roll and probably sweep. If the Sonics are way better in the backcourt, at least 150% the scoring output, they have a chance. That was about the way it broke down during the regular season, by the way. If San Antonio's guards outplay the Sonics' group, as happened in game one . . . well, Saturday's results speak for themselves, don't they?

Of course, a significant part of holding the San Antonio backcourt in check is making sure the Sonics get the Spurs' three-point opportunities in the right hands. Yesterday, nine of the 15 were by Smith and Danny Ferry. Those are the guys you don't want shooting, because they're deadly from behind the arc. You want Bowen shooting. You want Daniels shooting. Usually you want Parker, who's at 32%, shooting. When he's on . . . get out of the way.

Based on their 13 points in the third quarter, the Sonics also have some work to do on the other side of the court. I'm about to say something that will probably get me in trouble, but oh, well, I'll do it anyway. I think Vin Baker's offensive performance actually ended up hurting the Sonics. Not in and of itself, of course, but through its effect on the offense. In the first quarter, the Sonics were moving well and getting good, open shots from about 15-18 feet. After Baker came in, that about stopped. The only concern was to get the ball in the post or do something one-on-one, and all ball movement ceased. That's surely not Baker's fault, but something the rest of the team -- and the coaching staff -- has to be held responsible for.

I question just how effective Peja Drobnjak can be against the Spurs' personnel and system. He really did not look comfortable at all on Saturday. Offensively, it seemed to me that San Antonio was just baiting Drobnjak into trying to take the ball to the hole so that they could either steal the ball or block his shot or both. Defensively, Drobnjak is going to be hard pressed to do much of anything against Malik Rose or Tim Duncan. It's my opinion that if David Robinson can't play -- and he seems pretty doubtful for tonight -- that's an invitation for the Sonics to use small ball, especially if Rashard Lewis and Vladimir Radmanovic are healthy enough to go.

Am I the only one who suddenly sees backup point guard as a huge problem error for the Sonics? With Earl Watson struggling after his return from his injury, suddenly you've got three guys with major flaws in their games right now. Randy Livingston is a great ballhandler, but he is an unbelievable offensive liability because he just can't shoot whatsoever. Shammond Williams can't defend anybody, and though he's cut down on his turnovers (his three in one quarter of action Saturday aside), still tries to be a one-man show on offense. Watson is neither as good of a shooter as Williams nor as good of a distributor as Livingston, but brings the most defensively. All things considered, I'd still like to see him gain experience in this series, but none of the group is a real appealing option right now. And Barry's poor play and fatigue compounds that problem because he definitely needs a backup right now.

I want to spend a few keystrokes on Jerome James. There have been some people that have commented that James hasn't done anything lately, but I disagree. Just by stepping between the lines, James is bringing something to the table because he is the Sonics' best defensive player, the only guy on the team who can make opponents think twice about driving the lane. I'm about tired of seeing him post up, however. He does not usually get very good position, and James shooting turnarounds is something the Sonics don't use. James is here for blocking shots, rebounding, and dunking when somebody else draws a double-team.