Today marks exactly seven months since the Seattle Supersonics opened their training camp with media day. Back then, there were three big stories: What would Gary Payton's attitude be after a summer of discontent? Would a slimmed-down Vin Baker be able to regain his All-Star form? And what did the new jerseys look like?

Now, after eight pre-season games, 82 regular season contests, and three playoff affairs, it all comes down to this: 48 minutes separate the Seattle Supersonics from either a game five in San Antonio on Friday or a long summer that will be spent considering how the Sonics' strong play in March could have gone oh so wrong come the flip of the calendar to April.

I know I was not alone amongst Sonics fans in allowing my mind to consider during Saturday's game three what this series might be like were Tim Duncan suddenly removed from the San Antonio side of the equation. And then, suddenly and without warning, it happened. One might be able to characterize such a development as the answer to Sonics fans' prayers had it not been caused by the tragic death of his father, for which we at SonicsCentral.com send our deepest sympathies and condolences.

Regardless the reason for Duncan's absence, its effect is both unavoidable and unmistakeable. Without Duncan or Robinson, who will create the double-teams which provide open three-point attempts for Steve Smith and Danny Ferry (if he plays; he's currently listed as 'doubtful')? Who will set screens for Tony Parker, leaving either Duncan mismatched against a smaller defender or Parker streaking towards the hoop for yet another graceful finish? On defense, who will clean up messes any time a Seattle guard penetrates the lane?

With the answers to those questions all either 'Mark Bryant' or 'Cherokee Parks', I would imagine the Spurs might be in a little trouble at least temporarily, and this series is far from over yet.

As odd as it is, to my eyes, the key strategical question in this series now is how the Sonics can contain Parker. In the absence of Duncan and Robinson, he is the Spurs' most dangerous offensive player. There are several possibilities to consider, and I begin with one that surely seems odd at first blush: Switch Brent Barry onto Parker. If you can recall all the way back to the last series Seattle emerged victorious in, four years ago against the Minnesota Timberwolves, one of the key strategical maneuvers George Karl made to allow the Sonics to recover from a 2-1 deficit playing in the Target Center was switching Hersey Hawkins onto Wolves point guard Stephon Marbury. Quick point guards like Marbury and Parker have given Payton trouble in the playoffs all the way back to 1994 and Denver's Robert Pack, and the switch worked perfectly as Hawkins -- not known as a stellar defender -- shut Marbury down. Perhaps the same result could be achieved from putting Barry, also not the quickest of defenders, on Parker. Or, more dramatic yet, use Desmond Mason, whose size might bother Parker. The Sonics have a certain leeway because any of the three is capable of defending Bruce Bowen, not a serious offensive threat.

Another player on the San Antonio roster who remains worthy of concern is Steve Smith, certain to play a larger role in the Spurs' offense. At 6-8, Smith provides at least a three-inch height advantage against any of the Sonics' starting perimeter players, and was an adept post player during his time as a star for the Atlanta Hawks from 1994-95 to 1999. Don't be at all surprised to see Smith in the low blocks early and often.

Another player likely to see post-up opportunities is Malik Rose. Though most experts contend that Rose is even shorter than his listed 6-7, he is an adept inside scorer who has developed a decent mid-range jumper. Rose really reminds me of a bulkier Ruben Patterson, and Sonics fans should recall the difficulties he gave many defenders in the lane last season. Rose is best matched up against a slower, bigger player (read: Peja Drobnjak), against whom he can face up and use his quickness to beat. His likely initial defender, Vladimir Radmanovic, might alternately be too slight to match up with Rose.

The final key player for San Antonio offensively is reserve guard Antonio Daniels, whose contributions in the two Spurs victories have, in my opinion, been unfairly ignored. In those games, he's contributed 28 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists -- far more production than the Sonics have received from their bench. Although Daniels, like Parker, is eminently capable of breaking down the Seattle defense off the dribble, most of his game three scoring was done off back-cuts, as he beat his defender to the hole repeatedly. Even despite the depleted nature of San Antonio's roster, their reserves likely are still better than Seattle's group of Ansu Sesay, Randy Livingston, and Jerome James. Terry Porter's two game three threes were important, and Charles Smith, while not playing at all in this series while a game was in doubt, is a capable player at both ends of the court who could provide San Antonio a spark.

In the end, there is a widespread school of thought that believes that all of this strategy and the adjustments made from game to game are not as important as the emotional state of the players. This is the playoffs; everyone is playing hard! Adjustments quite clearly made the difference from games one to two, when the Sonics crashed the offensive boards aggressively and changed their double-teaming strategy against Duncan; and games two to three, when the Spurs added to their offense the pick-and-roll and a determination to aggressively attack Payton defensively.

The loser of the previous game is always at an advantage in terms of adjustments; as the saying goes, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. I think the winning team -- in this case the Spurs -- has the best opportunity to make changes at halftime if they trail. Unfortunately, the Sonics were down too far midway through game three for any possible adjustments to make any difference whatsoever.

Nate McMillan and his excellent assistants have had three days to break down the tapes and decipher exactly what went wrong in game three. While the odds of them making the changes I've suggested is about the same as me winning tomorrow's lottery, certainly McMillan will come out with new wrinkles on offense and defense that will shift the balance of power.

Lest we forget in the wake of last Saturday's embarrassment, the Sonics retain the home-court advantage. For the first 10 minutes of game three, the KeyArena crowd was as loud as it's been in several seasons. Should the home team give their fans a reason to be loud tonight, they -- we -- assuredly will. And as composed as Tony Parker has been throughout this series, he has yet to face 17,702 screaming fans and the pressure of the clock running downin a tight game. How will he react? Especially when his 7-1 security blanket is no longer around. . . .