Much has been made, in this space and others, of what the Sonics will do if Rashard Lewis leaves for the Dallas Mavericks’ offer of $15 million over three years. Considered less has been the alternative, Lewis staying despite his obvious distaste for the Sonics’ $60 million offer. In terms of Seattle’s roster, rotation, and strategy, Lewis returning is the status quo. In many other areas, however, Lewis returning will have a major impact.

Is Lewis returning for the best? A growing group believes it is not, as vocalized by SportingNews.com’s Sean Deveney in a recent column. They contend that the Sonics would be better off saving the cap room they would have to spend on Lewis for next summer and the opportunity at a player who can be the vocal leader and go-to clutch performer that Lewis, by all accounts, is not.

After signing Ansu Sesay to a two-year contract, the Sonics project to have $34.3 million in salaries committed to 10 players for the 2003-04 season if they sign Lewis to their current offer. It is impossible for an outsider like me to accurately predict where the salary cap will be set at next summer, but it seems unlikely that it will increase the more than $4 million it would need to go up in order for the Sonics to sign another team’s free agent to a deal starting at $10 million.

Though that scenario seems rather dire, things could get even worse if Lewis shocks the world by making the Western Conference All-Star team next season. According to Frank Hughes of the Tacoma News-Tribune, the much-ballyhooed incentive clauses in Lewis’ contract are based on All-Star appearances. If Lewis is an All-Star, his salary will increase 25% for that season. My understanding of the way such an incentive is treated by the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement is that it is classified as “likely to be achieved” or “not likely”. For next season, it will be considered unlikely because Lewis has not previously made the All-Star team. However, if he makes it next season, the incentive will be reclassified as likely for the 2003-04 season, increasing Lewis’ cap value to $8,437,500. That would bring the Sonics’ committed total to almost $36 million and effectively end any hopes the Sonics have of signing a top-tier free agent.

A solution that would seem to leave both the Sonics and Lewis better off than him heading for Dallas or re-signing in Seattle long-term would be a one-year deal at the starting salary the Sonics are currently offering, $6 million. Lewis would then get the chance to pursue his free agency next summer, when numerous teams -- including the Sonics -- will be under the cap. It might even improve Lewis’ chances of getting a long-term offer nearer his desire if the Sonics can find no better use of their money.

As for the team, they would be able to go into free agency next summer without having to sacrifice next season. That would be valuable, but it would come with a high price. Signing Lewis would almost certainly push the Sonics over the luxury tax threshold for next season. How much exactly that would cost them will not be known until after the season, but a recent article at RealGM.com projected a cost of approximately $17 million for going over the threshold. The Sonics would be willing to pay that price to keep Lewis in town for the next seven years. For one year, it would be financial suicide. No one-year deal, thanks.

One important consideration if Lewis returns to Seattle is what effect these contentious and drawn-out negotiations will have on his standing with the Sonics. Both sides have made moves which could cause the other to lose their trust. Lewis believes that the Sonics owe him a better offer than the one they’ve made, possibly based on promises they made him when he re-signed with Seattle during the summer of 2000. As for management, they seem to have been caught off-guard -- and presumably upset by -- Lewis flirting with other teams and dragging out his decision.

At the risk of reading too much into the negotiations between Lewis and the Sonics, there is the possibility that their relationship could never be the same. Remember the example of Seattle’s near-trade that would have sent Vin Baker to New York during the summer of 2000. Though Baker remained in Seattle two more years, he stopped being a Sonic when the Mavericks screwed the deal up by offering the Detroit Pistons more for forward Christian Laettner. (Gee, Mark Cuban sure has been a thorn in the Sonics’ side, hasn’t he?)

Then there are the fans. Most cut Lewis a fair amount of slack after his interview with Hughes in which he predicted what would happen this summer, indicating he would return closer to home if the Sonics failed to take care of him financially (How important that modifier, overlooked at the time, seems now!) Now that Lewis is making good on his promise, fans have turned. The word ‘greed’ has been thrown around loosely, with many a fan proclaiming they wouldn’t mind Lewis leaving -- not for basketball reasons, but because they don’t want him here. That can’t be forgotten with one signature on a contract.

Lewis may have even worse problems with the fans than their attitudes toward his negotiating style. Signing a contract that will guarantee him almost $9 million per season will engender certain expectations for Lewis, perhaps even higher than the “future of the franchise” hopes that were pinned on him when he emerged as a top prospect during the 1999-2000 season.

Amazing as it may seem, there are those who view Lewis’ averages of 16.8 points and 7.0 rebounds per game as disappointing performance. Deveney espoused this view in a later mailbag in response to his first column about Lewis, writing, “Sure, the Sonics made an implicit promise in 2000 to pay Lewis what he is worth down the road. The problem is, Lewis was supposed to have become a $90 million player by now. He did not hold up his end of the bargain . . . .” While I can understand where this feeling comes from, I can’t agree with it. Lewis has developed as well as can reasonably be expected, and anyone who feels he has failed is guilty of having unreasonable expectations in my book.

For the next seven years, that could be even worse. If Lewis never becomes an All-Star in this league, never leads the Sonics deep in the playoffs, he will become the scapegoat for any problems, just as Baker has been ever since he signed his new contract three years ago. (Not that Baker didn’t deserve criticism, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest he took more than his share.)

Maybe, to go off track, the potential for criticism is part of the thinking behind wanting to go to Houston or Dallas. In Seattle, Lewis is largely responsible for whether the Sonics are successful or not. With the Mavericks, their trio of stars -- Steve Nash, Michael Finley, and Dirk Nowitzki -- shoulders the responsibility for the team’s success. Same thing in Houston with the backcourt of Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley. Sure, as so many have pointed out, Lewis will probably never make an All-Star game playing alongside that caliber of talent. Has Lewis ever indicated that such individual accolade is of supreme importance for him? While Lewis’ willingness to play a secondary role is basically a negative for the Sonics, it makes him perfect for a team like Dallas.

A decision from Lewis can’t wait much longer; eventually, the Mavericks have to know whether they need to find another player to use their median exception on or not. The last time he publicly spoke about a timetable, he told Hughes he planned, “on signing before the end of the month.” Sunday is September 1, but Lewis had already pushed back his schedule after saying previously he planned to sign before teammate Desmond Mason’s wedding, which took place on August 8.

Most everyone wants a resolution to this decision, which has already dragged on far too long. The strange thing to me is that knowing either way seems to be more important -- at least to me -- than what Lewis decides. I never want to see a player I like leave, but at the same time there are persuasive arguments that the Sonics are better off -- long-term -- without Lewis. Either way, I think the outcome could be portrayed as positive or negative. The one thing I do know for sure is that the events of the past month and a half can’t be undone, and they have serious and far-reaching implications for the future of this franchise.

Kevin Pelton has served as beat writer, columnist, editor, copy editor, and webmaster for SonicsCentral.com since its inception. He also writes a weekly column for Hoopsworld.com and is a student at the University of Washington in his spare time. The Candid Corner is updated every Monday. Kevin can be reached at kpelton08@hotmail.com. All opinions expressed in this column are solely the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of other columnists or the SonicsCentral.com staff.

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