14 months ago, it seemed a very realistic possibility that the Seattle SuperSonics would complete blow up their roster -- boy, the discussion we once had in the message boards trying to figure out exactly what the phrase ‘blow up’ means -- and field an essentially non-competitive team for the 2001-02 season.
Thankfully, that was not the case; the Sonics stayed together with changes in the supporting cast and ended up a playoff team last season. That result meant that entering this summer, it seemed unthinkable that the Sonics end up non-competitive during the 2002-03 season. Sure, Rashard Lewis might bolt, and that would put the Sonics on the outside looking in at the projected West playoff picture, but with Gary Payton around they would be assured of at worst about 35 victories. Payton entered the summer at little risk of being traded, in stark contrast to a year prior.
Now, however, has emerged a renewed threat of a Payton-less Sonics taking the floor in November. Not because of trade this time, but instead Payton taking himself out of the lineup with a holdout in protest of Seattle management’s unwillingness to extend his contract.
I don’t think Payton will hold out, despite what was written in last week’s Portland Tribune, but I have to at least consider the possibility as a columnist.
Without Payton, teams like the Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns, and Utah Jazz vault ahead of the Sonics in the projected race for the eighth playoff spot in the West. Along with another team behind the Sonics last year who will probably leapfrog them even with Payton, the Los Angeles Clippers, that would drop the Sonics at least four spots in my analysis of the West -- to best case 11th overall and a playoff longshot.
If Payton held out and Lewis left for the Dallas Mavericks, things would begin to look downright dire. A starting lineup of Kenny Anderson, Brent Barry, Desmond Mason, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Jerome James is going nowhere in the fierce Western Conference. Without Payton or, to a far lesser extent, Lewis, to create offense, complimentary players like Barry would lose much of their value. Mason and Radmanovic have the tools to create their own offense and be go-to players, but at this stage of their career asking them to play such a role would be far too great a burden and would quite possibly stifle their development.
I’m not particularly interested in the on-court ramifications of playing without Payton and Lewis -- at least not in this space. For the time being, grant me as a given that such a Sonics squad would join the West’s Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, and Memphis Grizzlies and the East’s Cleveland Cavaliers in the pursuit of the NBA’s worst record next season. My line of inquiry is how that would affect the organization and its fans.
Seattle fans are notorious for being ‘fair-weather fans’, meaning that attendance for local sports teams is closely linked with their records. With the Sonics falling from legitimate contention in the George Karl era, their average attendance has dropped from 17,072 -- selling out all 41 games -- as recently as 1997-98, Karl’s last season, to 15,630 during the 2000-01 season.
Last season saw a resurgence in Sonic attendance; down the stretch, the Key was full more often than not. In the short term, a terrible team might actually not have that much impact on attendance. Season ticket holders were forced to renew for next season months ago and the Sonics have been selling their six-game mini-packages for weeks now. Walk-up attendance would surely drop off slightly, but the Sonics would still probably draw an average of 14,000-15,000 even if they are awful next season.
As a result, Payton holding out could actually be a financial windfall to the Sonics -- something to consider if columnists insinuate in the future that a potential holdout would ‘force’ the Sonics to trade him. If Payton doesn’t play, he doesn’t receive his $13-plus million salary for next season. Instead of potentially being over the salary cap, that would leave the Sonics with one of the NBA’s lowest payrolls. If Lewis leaves as well and the Sonics sign a free agent for their ‘million-dollar’ exception before filling out their roster with two rookies making the absolute league minimum ($349,458), they would be left with a payroll of only $36,021,054 -- almost assuredly the lowest in the league and $4 million less than the salary cap.
Considering that the Sonics would likely receive escrow funds and luxury tax payments distributed by the league, they could easily be in the black next season without Payton or Lewis despite the loss of ticket revenue from lower attendance and no playoff games.
There are two ways a miserable season could really hurt the Sonics. First, although season ticket holders will have to pay for their seats, there’s no guarantee they would use them to watch an also-ran team. Several season ticket holders I know (okay, my fellow columnist Joe and my family) have indicated to me in the past that they wouldn’t bother attending nearly as many games if the Sonics truly stunk. I don’t think that’s an atypical feeling; when the Sonics are struggling, it becomes that much easier to push them aside in favor of schoolwork or prior engagements for all but the most diehard of fans. If those fans are not in attendance, they can’t purchase souvenirs from the Sonics’ Team Shop or food at concession stands.
Additionally, season ticket holders will come into play next summer when they are asked to renew their tickets for the 2003-04 season. After a losing season, there is little question that many would not be swayed by the promise of a top draft pick and a free agent acquisition and would give up their tickets.
Thinking about the Sonics’ fanbase leads to an important, if depressing, thought. Those of us that frequent this website, that hang on every scrap of Sonic information we can find, like to think of ourselves as the most important fans. In the grand scheme, however, we are relatively unimportant to the team because it knows it can depend on our support regardless its success. It is the casual fans -- the ones who are more likely to find some other way to spend their time if the Sonics struggle -- who really mark the difference between financial success and failure.
That same line of thinking can be extended from the Sonics to the media outlets that cover them. Local papers aren’t making money of a small group of passionate fans. As a result, we can expect lessened coverage of a Payton-less Sonic squad. If it seems that local columnists only discuss the team once in a blue man now, you can forget about reading any commentary outside of this website if they slip far below .500. Additionally, the major papers may begin to cut corners in their coverage of the team. I can’t imagine it will get as bad as it was for the Golden State Warriors last year, when all three Bay Area papers stopped sending reporters on the road to cover the team, but we’d probably see more examples of non-local writers filing reports on road games.
To an extent, then, I think SonicsCentral.com might actually be better off in some regards covering a bad Sonics team. As it is, options for Sonic coverage are limited at best much of the time; none of the three local papers has published a single Sonic article in the month of September (though, in all honesty, there hasn’t been a ton for them to talk about). Covering a bad Sonic team, we might just monopolize the market amongst the remaining fans who care.
Additionally, I expect it would be easier for me to improve my own coverage of the Sonics with better press access if they were awful. For those of you who are not aware already, in discussions with the Sonics’ PR department earlier this summer I was promised press access on a space-available basis next season. If columnists and local media types no longer have any interest in the games, it would be all the easier for me to force my way in regularly.
Of course, though I expect many of the readers and posters at SonicsCentral.com would tough it out through a miserable season, there are those who would not. I recall in a discussion of those woeful Warriors last season that Dave (Heavy D) mentioned he wouldn’t be willing to expend the energy to write columns about a sad sack team. He’s probably not alone in that regard and I can certainly envision a scenario in which I’m writing columns by -- if not for -- myself about a downtrodden Sonic squad.
Apathy is not the only feeling brought about by constant losing; it can also bring about as passionate a response as winning. Many of my most fervent columns at Hoopsworld.com have been composed in the wake of a disheartening loss. However, if you never expect to win, can any loss be disheartening? Still, there would certainly be a number of people who would happily seize upon the chance to complain about everything from the PA announcer to the length of players’ shorts and let loose their frustration over watching bad basketball.
I still wholeheartedly disagree with Rick Sund’s notion that the worst place to be in basketball is the middle. I think having a shot at the playoffs is better than being predestined for the lottery, even if there is the reward of a high draft pick dangling at the end of the season. However, after more than a year to think about, I don’t think enduring a 30- or even 20-win season would be so bad. I’m quite confident both the Sonics and I could survive.
Kevin Pelton has served as beat writer, columnist, editor, copy editor, and webmaster for SonicsCentral.com since its inception. He also writes a weekly column for Hoopsworld.com and is a student at the University of Washington in his spare time. The Candid Corner is updated every Monday. Kevin can be reached at kpelton@sonicscentral.com. All opinions expressed in this column are solely the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of other columnists or the SonicsCentral.com staff.
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