For Seattle Supersonics fans, the buildup (or lack thereof) for this Wednesday's NBA Draft is reminiscent of the era when the Sonics were perennial Western Conference contenders under coach George Karl. As they often did during the tenure of Karl, notorious in his disdain for young players, the Sonics will go without a first-round pick this year, the result of the August 2000 trade for Patrick Ewing, in which the Sonics sent a lottery-protected first-round pick to the New York Knicks (who later sent it along to the Toronto Raptors). Last year, because the team did not make the playoffs, they were able to keep the 12th pick and select forward Vladimir Radmanovic, whose successful rookie season culminated in his selection to the All-Rookie second-team. This year, a playoff run meant the Sonics had to give up their pick, a tradeoff the team and its fans were surely willing to make.

The Sonics do retain their second-round selection, which is number 49 overall (though it will actually be the 48th pick, as for the second consecutive year the Minnesota Timberwolves are forced to forfeit their first-rounder). Such late picks can be spotty in value: Of the last ten picks in the 2001 NBA Draft, only five made NBA rosters. However, the potential payoff still exists. Utah selected Stanford center Jarron Collins with pick 53 a year ago and saw him secure the starting center position on a playoff-bound team.

Collins is an example of one way to find value with later picks. With the preponderance of early entry candidates in the Draft and the emphasis most NBA teams place on potential rather than instant results or past performance, college seniors with successful college careers often get lost in the shuffle -- especially if they are considered undersized for their position in the NBA. If, as many expect, the Sonics select a big man with their pick, they could have a number of such players to choose from, including Oklahoma's Aaron McGhee, Notre Dame's Troy Humphrey, Iowa's Reggie Evans, Florida's Udonis Haslem, and Maryland's Lonny Baxter. For these players, collegiate stardom on successful teams has not translated into NBA respect.

Another direction a team can go in attempting to find value is to select a riskier young player whose potential upside is huge if they ever reach it. There are a pair of high school players in this year's Draft who fit that profile, Inglewood High School power forward DeAngelo Collins and Northern Valley Regional (NY) High School shooting guard Lenny Cooke. Both are expected to be on the board when the Sonics select. The team captured lightning in a bottle once with Rashard Lewis -- might they try again?

Route number three for late-Draft value is to select a young European player. As they have had success with a high schooler, the Sonics found two European contributors in last year's Draft in Radmanovic and Predrag Drobnjak, whose rights were acquired from Washington for the rights to the Sonics' 42nd pick, DePaul forward Bobby Simmons. An advantage to selecting a young European is that they may stay overseas until they develop into a player ready to contribute at the NBA level, allowing the team the luxury of leaving their development to someone else. Drobnjak, who was drafted by the then-Bullets in 1997, is a prime example of this phenomenon. With the Sonics' roster fairly well-stocked already, they might view this as a real advantage for a European player.

A fourth possibility for the Sonics is to focus on taking the proverbial 'best player available' and hoping that a first-round prospect surprisingly drops on Draft night. Last year, questions about his toughness and psychological makeup caused Arizona center Loren Woods, once thought to be a lottery pick, to slip to pick 46, where the Timberwolves gladly selected him. Of course, players sometimes fall for a reason -- Woods was not a major contributor during his rookie season, hitting the pine after a mid-season trade for Marc Jackson, and hardly made the Sonics regret passing him up in favor of Drobnjak and guard Earl Watson.

The balance between best player available and drafting for need can be difficult to strike. Sonics General Manager Rick Sund addressed this difficulty in a recent question and answer session with Supersonics.com, saying, "You have to determine if the best player is better for us than a need player." Clearly, the Sonics' primary area of need continues to be up front with Jerome James and Olumide Oyedeji free agents, Vin Baker on the trade block, and Calvin Booth still a question mark after in-season surgery. This is somewhat reflected by the players they have worked out already, according to a June 22 Seattle Times article, which reported they had worked out Evans, Haslem, San Diego State's Randy Holcomb, UCLA's Matt Barnes, and LaSalle's Rasual Butler. All of the players are forwards, with a mix of those likely to end up at power forward and small forward in the NBA.

The fun of the Draft for fans lies in its unpredictability; for all of the bluster of experts, nobody ever knows what will happen until Commissioner David Stern steps up to the podium just after 4:30 PM Pacific time. Sitting at the 49th pick, the Draft is far more unpredictable. Even the Sonics likely have several plans dependent on which players fall or are picked higher than expected. But we at SonicsCentral have never been known for our unwillingness to stick out our necks, so we'll make a prediction about the Sonics' selection despite the extreme implausibility of being correct.

SonicsCentral.com prediction: Reggie Evans, 6-8 power forward, Iowa

SonicsCentral.com is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Seattle SuperSonics or the NBA. Visit the Sonics' official website at Supersonics.com. All uncredited articles by Kevin Pelton. Photos by Kevin Pelton and Sonic Fan Since. All work copyright SonicsCentral.com 2001-2002. For concerns or comments please e-mail us at admin@sonicscentral.com