Sonic Survivor
Handicapping Each Sonic's Chances of Making the Roster

19 players and probably only 13 roster spots. Something in the math doesn't add up. Over the four weeks between tonight and opening night (yes, four weeks to the day, the Sonics are going to have to make likely six cuts. SonicsCentral.com gives you our picks for the twelve you'll see on the floor opening night at Sacramento ... and the one who will suddenly get 'patella tendonitis' (That can't be argued with because nobody knows what it is).

Guaranteed Spots
12 guys look to already have sewed up spots on the roster. They are:

Gary Payton
Earl Watson
Shammond Williams
Brent Barry
Desmond Mason
Rashard Lewis
Vladimir Radmanovic
Vin Baker
Olumide Oyedeji
Calvin Booth
Predrag Drobnjak
Jerome James

The Favorite
Eddie Elisma
The 6-9 forward out of Georgia Tech was the final cut last season. With several guaranteed contracts out of the way, there's no good reason why he shouldn't make it this year. Elisma is similar in style to another competitor, Antonio Harvey, but should win out because of his familiarity with the Sonics system.
Odds: 60%

The Contenders
Antonio Harvey
The 6-11 forward/center has spent the last two seasons with Portland, and was briefly with the Sonics during the 96-97 season. Harvey has developed a solid work ethic since entering the league in 93-94 as a project out of small Pfeiffer College, and is experienced. However, Elisma has the inside track on him and their skills are similar, so Harvey picked a bad place to seek employment.
Odds: 25%

JaRon Rush
Rush, who spent last season playing six games in ABA 2000 with the Los Angeles Stars, is an intriguing project. He is extremely talented and was a top recruit out of high school, but has never put it together on the court, and played only one full season at UCLA before his career was derailed by recruiting violations. If the Sonics add a 14th player to the roster, Rush will probably be it.
Odds: 25%

Eddie Gill
Gill would be a solid third point guard on many teams, but after the Sonics spent a high second round pick on Earl Watson, there is little chance that Gill would beat out Watson for a job. Should be back in the NBA on a 10-day contract sometime this year.
Odds: 10%

Others
Anthony Johnson
Johnson is an NBA veteran, having played with Atlanta, Orlando, and Cleveland in recent years. If something were to go wrong with Shammond's new deal, Johnson's experience would make him a more ideal backup point than Gill or Watson. Barring that, he has little shot.
Odds: 3%

Art Long
Long has NBA talent, and was with the Sacramento Kings last season. However, his attitude gives him little chance to win a job, and he's not necessarily more talented than Elisma or Harvey, hard workers both.
Odds: 1%

Jamal Kendrick
The Odds of Kendrick making the roster are about as good as you winning tomorrow night's lottery.
Odds: 1%

Note: Total is 125% instead of 100% because we predict a 25% chance that the Sonics go with a 14 man roster.