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Worst Case Scenario

May 31, 2002

For most Sonics’ supporters this summer does not seem to be a very suspense filled affair. After all, to most Seattle faithful Sund and Walker’s summer agenda should already be set in stone:

1) Bring back Rashard Lewis
2) Lock up Gary Payton
3) By any means necessary, get rid of Vin Baker

Although not necessarily in that order.

Most signs leading into the summer look promising for the Sonics and their fans. As far as point one is concerned, Rashard Lewis will not be able to find a paycheck bigger than what Seattle is willing to give him. In return for his big payday, Rashard will make himself seemingly un-tradable as a base year compensated player. This makes it almost a sure bet that the Sonics’ budding star at small forward will return next year.

On to agenda note number two. Even if Gary Payton does not get his extension this summer, very little changes on the Payton front. Gary will return to the team next year to become a free agent in 2003, but even then Seattle will still want Gary to come back, and Gary will still rather play in Seattle than anywhere else in the league. It has been suggested by management in the media that this might actually be the preferable route, for the team to retain the services of the All-Star point guard after he becomes a free agent with a much more fiscally responsible deal that allows the team to continue its current growth. Even by standing pat and doing nothing, the situation does not become any worse than it already is.

So regardless of what some fans think of the capacity of the Sonics front office, (and believe it or not there is actually a doubter or two out there) it would seem that the first two courses of action for the off-season are no-brainers. A slightly below-average intelligence chimp could not screw it up; even Bill Walton could do it.

Which brings us to task number three, which could very possibly blow up in the faces of management if not handled properly; for example, handled like last year. Last year Seattle made it publicly known that the overpaid, overweight, underachieving power forward would be available and the market showed zero interest. All Seattle ended up with were the same tired old clichés about second chances and new beginnings.

So what, in the eyes of Sonics fans, would be the worst possible scenario imaginable for Seattle this summer? The answer is Sund and Walker holding onto the delusion of landing valuable talent in return for Baker. If this is the case, this year’s level of interest will not fare much better than last summer, despite Baker showing substantial improvement this year both on and off the court. Fans would be left with tired old clichés about second chances and new beginnings (noticing a trend?).

The mere thought of management failing to move Baker has quickly has apparently deeply affected the psyches of Seattle fans, prompting some to lose themselves in distress and suggest abandoning Brent Barry to make sure the spectre of Vin Baker haunts the Key Arena no more. Some have even gone so far as to suggest Desmond Mason, Vladimir Radmanovic or Rashard Lewis be sacrificed. Their attitude is that any part of the team’s talented core of youth are expendable if it can help Seattle finally be rid of Vin.

As long as management looks to trade Vin for favourable contracts instead of valuable commodities, there is no reason the Sonics need to lose a talented player or a piece of the team’s future. If Mason, Barry, or Radmanovic were to leave with Baker, it would be a case of the cure being worse than the disease, especially when the truth is that this worst-case scenario does not have to be the horrendous calamity that Seattle fans would make it out to be.

The Sonics are a franchise on the rise in the NBA; with another year under the belts of the squad’s youth the team will improve whether Vin goes or not. The same can be said about another year of knowledge gained by Coach Nate McMillan and the prospect of a returning, and finally healthy, Calvin Booth. All of these points will help the Sonics find more and more success in the near future.

Believe it or not Baker can still be a part of that success too. The answer is in Baker’s improved mental approach to the game. This could help him now succeed in a role that was too difficult for him to adapt to in the past; that of the primary scoring option on the second unit.

When Nate McMillan first took over the team on November 27th 2000 one of the first changes he made was to bring Jelani McCoy off the bench and into the starting line-up. The idea was to bring more speed to the starting line-up, a strategy that has been clearly proven successful after the three dislocated toes Vin Baker suffered showed a faster pick-and-roll oriented offense more conducive to the teams attributes. The second part of McMillan’s reasoning back in November 2000 was that Vin Baker could have his way on the offensive end with just about any second-string frontcourt in the league. This belief still holds true, particularly in light of Vin’s improved performance this year.

What really makes moving Vin to the bench more viable now than back then has absolutely nothing to do with Vin’s improved play or positive attitude. In fact it has little to do with Baker at all. The real improvement in the situation lies in the fact that Vladimir Radmanovic, who would step into the starting role for the team, is a vast improvement over Jelani McCoy.

Welcoming Vin back to the roster and trying to maintain his positive attitude while coming off the bench is far from the best possible scenario. Vladimir Radmanovic, after all, still has a lot to learn in this league and Vin Baker’s price tag is much too heavy for a back up power forward, meaning this could only be a temporary solution at best. But even this temporary solution is better than a rash emotional move made now, out of fear, that will come back to hurt the team farther down the road. Moving Baker will and should be a priority this summer, but the “at all cost” attitude that some fans are adopting would be a mistake. If this attitude should slip into mindset of the front office, it will end up being a mistake for which the Sonics will pay.

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