{"id":187,"date":"2013-03-19T22:50:51","date_gmt":"2013-03-19T22:50:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kcpelton.wordpress.com\/?p=187"},"modified":"2013-03-19T22:50:51","modified_gmt":"2013-03-19T22:50:51","slug":"nit-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/2013\/03\/19\/nit-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"NIT Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"

With the NIT set to tip off shortly, here’s a statistical look at the probability of each school advancing and ultimately winning the title of the nation’s 69th-best team. This is in the same spirit as Ken Pomeroy’s log5 projections<\/strong><\/a>, though it does not actually utilize the log5 model. To incorporate home-court advantage, I use Jeff Sagarin’s predictor ratings<\/strong><\/a>, with the Pythagorean method<\/strong><\/a> giving a probability of each team winning based on rating plus any appropriate home-court advantage.<\/p>\n

Here are the figures:<\/p>\n

School\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Sagarin\u00a0\u00a0 2R\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 QF\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FF\u00a0\u00a0 Final\u00a0 Champ\n--------------------------------------------------------\nVirginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 84.6\u00a0\u00a0 .969\u00a0\u00a0 .773\u00a0\u00a0 .538\u00a0\u00a0 .323\u00a0\u00a0 .179\nKentucky\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 85.0\u00a0\u00a0 .782\u00a0\u00a0 .642\u00a0\u00a0 .437\u00a0\u00a0 .288\u00a0\u00a0 .164\nBaylor\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 85.0\u00a0\u00a0 .922\u00a0\u00a0 .764\u00a0\u00a0 .405\u00a0\u00a0 .266\u00a0\u00a0 .152\nIowa\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 85.0\u00a0\u00a0 .898\u00a0\u00a0 .606\u00a0\u00a0 .290\u00a0\u00a0 .179\u00a0\u00a0 .102\nSouthern Miss\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 81.8\u00a0\u00a0 .920\u00a0\u00a0 .729\u00a0\u00a0 .493\u00a0\u00a0 .200\u00a0\u00a0 .088\nAlabama\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 81.9\u00a0\u00a0 .912\u00a0\u00a0 .583\u00a0\u00a0 .368\u00a0\u00a0 .155\u00a0\u00a0 .069\nMaryland\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 82.5\u00a0\u00a0 .887\u00a0\u00a0 .598\u00a0\u00a0 .298\u00a0\u00a0 .133\u00a0\u00a0 .062\nTennessee\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 82.2\u00a0\u00a0 .831\u00a0\u00a0 .371\u00a0\u00a0 .183\u00a0\u00a0 .077\u00a0\u00a0 .035\n\nSchool\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Sagarin\u00a0\u00a0 2R\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 QF\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FF\u00a0\u00a0 Final\u00a0 Champ\n--------------------------------------------------------\nStanford\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 82.7\u00a0\u00a0 .808\u00a0\u00a0 .357\u00a0\u00a0 .148\u00a0\u00a0 .067\u00a0\u00a0 .032\nDenver\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 82.2\u00a0\u00a0 .752\u00a0\u00a0 .310\u00a0\u00a0 .152\u00a0\u00a0 .066\u00a0\u00a0 .030\nBYU\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 80.5\u00a0\u00a0 .694\u00a0\u00a0 .422\u00a0\u00a0 .183\u00a0\u00a0 .065\u00a0\u00a0 .025\nProvidence\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 80.1\u00a0\u00a0 .828\u00a0\u00a0 .280\u00a0\u00a0 .078\u00a0\u00a0 .036\u00a0\u00a0 .013\nMassachusetts\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 79.3\u00a0\u00a0 .648\u00a0\u00a0 .287\u00a0\u00a0 .083\u00a0\u00a0 .032\u00a0\u00a0 .011\nSaint Joseph's\u00a0\u00a0 80.4\u00a0\u00a0 .749\u00a0\u00a0 .182\u00a0\u00a0 .058\u00a0\u00a0 .025\u00a0\u00a0 .010\nWashington\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 79.2\u00a0\u00a0 .306\u00a0\u00a0 .169\u00a0\u00a0 .053\u00a0\u00a0 .016\u00a0\u00a0 .005\nArizona St.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 78.7\u00a0\u00a0 .608\u00a0\u00a0 .130\u00a0\u00a0 .043\u00a0\u00a0 .017\u00a0\u00a0 .005\n\nSchool\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Sagarin\u00a0\u00a0 2R\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 QF\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FF\u00a0\u00a0 Final\u00a0 Champ\n--------------------------------------------------------\nDetroit\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 79.5\u00a0\u00a0 .392\u00a0\u00a0 .092\u00a0\u00a0 .025\u00a0\u00a0 .011\u00a0\u00a0 .004\nFlorida St.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 77.3\u00a0\u00a0 .632\u00a0\u00a0 .161\u00a0\u00a0 .047\u00a0\u00a0 .011\u00a0\u00a0 .003\nOhio\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 79.1\u00a0\u00a0 .248\u00a0\u00a0 .076\u00a0\u00a0 .020\u00a0\u00a0 .006\u00a0\u00a0 .002\nStony Brook\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 79.2\u00a0\u00a0 .352\u00a0\u00a0 .074\u00a0\u00a0 .016\u00a0\u00a0 .006\u00a0\u00a0 .002\nLouisiana Tech\u00a0\u00a0 77.6\u00a0\u00a0 .368\u00a0\u00a0 .097\u00a0\u00a0 .030\u00a0\u00a0 .008\u00a0\u00a0 .002\nSFA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 77.7\u00a0\u00a0 .192\u00a0\u00a0 .052\u00a0\u00a0 .012\u00a0\u00a0 .003\u00a0\u00a0 .001\nSt. John's\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 77.5\u00a0\u00a0 .251\u00a0\u00a0 .043\u00a0\u00a0 .010\u00a0\u00a0 .003\u00a0\u00a0 .001\nMercer\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 76.4\u00a0\u00a0 .169\u00a0\u00a0 .038\u00a0\u00a0 .008\u00a0\u00a0 .002\u00a0\u00a0 .000\n\nSchool\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Sagarin\u00a0\u00a0 2R\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 QF\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FF\u00a0\u00a0 Final\u00a0 Champ\n--------------------------------------------------------\nIndiana St.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 75.7\u00a0\u00a0 .102\u00a0\u00a0 .033\u00a0\u00a0 .004\u00a0\u00a0 .001\u00a0\u00a0 .000\nCharlotte\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 74.6\u00a0\u00a0 .172\u00a0\u00a0 .036\u00a0\u00a0 .005\u00a0\u00a0 .001\u00a0\u00a0 .000\nRobert Morris\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 74.2\u00a0\u00a0 .218\u00a0\u00a0 .042\u00a0\u00a0 .004\u00a0\u00a0 .001\u00a0\u00a0 .000\nLong Beach St.\u00a0\u00a0 74.1\u00a0\u00a0 .078\u00a0\u00a0 .015\u00a0\u00a0 .002\u00a0\u00a0 .000\u00a0\u00a0 .000\nNiagara\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 74.1\u00a0\u00a0 .113\u00a0\u00a0 .015\u00a0\u00a0 .002\u00a0\u00a0 .000\u00a0\u00a0 .000\nCharleston\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 71.6\u00a0\u00a0 .080\u00a0\u00a0 .012\u00a0\u00a0 .001\u00a0\u00a0 .000\u00a0\u00a0 .000\nNortheastern\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 72.1\u00a0\u00a0 .088\u00a0\u00a0 .008\u00a0\u00a0 .001\u00a0\u00a0 .000\u00a0\u00a0 .000\nNorfolk St.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 68.8\u00a0\u00a0 .031\u00a0\u00a0 .002\u00a0\u00a0 .000\u00a0\u00a0 .000\u00a0\u00a0 .000<\/pre>\n
A few notable things:<\/p>\n
– As compared to the four-letter tournament, seeding is even more important in the NIT because the first three rounds are played at host sites. So Iowa<\/strong>, despite being tied for the best rating, has only the fifth-best chance of reaching the semifinals at Madison Square Garden as a No. 3 seed.<\/p>\n
– Virginia<\/strong> got the most favorable draw of the top teams. The Cavaliers’ opening-round game against Norfolk State<\/strong> is close to a 1-16 matchup in terms of lopsidedness, and their second-round game should be relatively easy. It’s not until a potential quarterfinal matchup with Iowa that UVa will really be tested.<\/p>\n
– Baylor<\/strong> also got a tough break. The Bears are the second team with a power rating of 85.0, but happen to be in the same bracket as the third (Kentucky<\/strong>), and would have to play at Rupp Arena if both teams advance to the quarterfinals.<\/p>\n
– Sagarin likes UK quite a bit more than Pomeroy, who has the ‘Cats in 41st, and especially BPI<\/strong> <\/a>(52nd), which attempts to account for Nerlens Noel’s injury. So Kentucky’s chances of winning are surely overstated. In fact, UK isn’t a sure thing to get past tonight’s game at Robert Morris<\/strong>, played on the road because Rupp is busy preparing to host the NCAA tournament.<\/p>\n
– The other higher seed we know will be affected by hosting other tournaments (the NCAA women, in this case) is Tennessee<\/strong>. Should the Volunteers beat Mercer<\/strong>, they’ll have to play at the winner of BYU<\/strong> and Washington<\/strong>, which will be a long haul either way. Due to that, and playing in the most wide-open bracket, the Huskies actually got an incredibly favorable draw for a sixth seed. If they can get past Brigham Young on the road, UW has a 1 in 6 shot at reaching Madison Square Garden.<\/p>\n
Baylor and Maryland<\/strong> are also hosting the women’s tournament, and it’s unclear whether these teams might have to play on the road in the second and\/or third rounds.<\/p>\n
– The widest-open bracket is in the Alabama<\/strong> region, where four teams have a 14.8 percent chance or better of getting to the Final Four.<\/p>\n
– Lastly, take these projections with a note of caution that the NIT is unlike other tournaments because motivation differs so widely among teams. Every year, we see one of the top seeds sleepwalk at home and stumble to a lesser foe. So I might be understating the variability in the projections.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
With the NIT set to tip off shortly, here’s a statistical look at the probability of each school advancing and ultimately winning the title of the nation’s 69th-best team. This is in the same spirit as Ken Pomeroy’s log5 projections, … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"series":[],"class_list":["post-187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-huskymbb"],"episode_featured_image":false,"episode_player_image":"http:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/peltoncast_itunes-1.jpg","download_link":"","player_link":"","audio_player":false,"episode_data":{"playerMode":"dark","subscribeUrls":{"apple_podcasts":{"key":"apple_podcasts","url":"","label":"Apple Podcasts","class":"apple_podcasts","icon":"apple-podcasts.png"},"stitcher":{"key":"stitcher","url":"","label":"Stitcher","class":"stitcher","icon":"stitcher.png"},"google_podcasts":{"key":"google_podcasts","url":"","label":"Google Podcasts","class":"google_podcasts","icon":"google-podcasts.png"},"spotify":{"key":"spotify","url":"","label":"Spotify","class":"spotify","icon":"spotify.png"}},"rssFeedUrl":"http:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/feed\/podcast\/the-fabulous-peltoncast","embedCode":"
NIT Projections<\/a><\/blockquote>