Game nine, and if your Sonic playoff hopes are still alive, they're in critical condition. It's early, but for Seattle one of two scenarios are likely to happen at the end of 30 days. Either the Sonics turn their bad play around and keep their thin playoff hopes alive; or it's headed to the morgue, entering the New Year dead on arrival.
This doesn't have a great deal to do with 3 and 5. 3 and 5 is our record, but lottery is how we played on this road trip. Excluding Orlando, where as it turns out we needed all of Rashard Lewis's career high 36 points to win, this week was ugly. The Sonics are showing they are inconsistent, and showing up once or twice every four games doesn't bode well sitting on the bottom of the Pacific Division.
The scary part is, things could have easily been worse (or get worse). That win in Washington was a face saving gift. The Sonics will claim good defense, but in reality it had a lot to do with bad offense by the Wizards. Truth is, we probably could have played poorly and won. Had this been any other team in the Eastern Conference, had Jordan not had a dismal game, the Sonics could have dropped to 2-6, with a 30-day stretch that offers no relief.
This team has the talent, but becomes unglued far too easily. We also have injures, but that doesn't begin to describe all our troubles. Even if it did, this week should offer relief with Shammond Williams expected back in the next few days if not tonight. Predrag Drobnjak also is starting to run again and could be available soon. Baker sat out the Washington game and is expected back tonight; and Booth, who sat out the last 3 games, is expected back this week.
Needless to say, any games lost due to injuries are lost forever. With respect to the playoffs, crying over injuries fall on deaf ears, you either have enough wins and you're in, or you don't and you're out.
The NBA season is 82 games, but if the Sonics drop enough in November, they simply wont have the wins in April.
For the 3-5 Supersonics, the next 30 days might as well be the playoffs if you have those types of high aspirations. Personally, I enjoy watching our young talent, and cringe when I see Payton taking 26 shots when half those could have gone towards player development! (After all, this WAS the season where the Sonic youth would finally get their chance. And that was coming even if it meant trading both Payton and Baker to do it?but hey, who's counting.)
Despite my personal views on the season, for those banking on a playoff berth, the next 30 days breaks down into:
"The First Home Stand": Starts tonight. Series of 3 games played at Key Arena.
"Texas 2 Step": Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, back-to-back.
"The Second Home Stand": Series of 3 games played ay Key Arena
"The Delta Center": AKA The "Trauma" Center
"Champions Weekend": Lakers, Bucks visit Key Arena
"The Road Again": Three of 4 on road with home stop against Heat
"Back-to-Back at the Staples Center": Lakers, Clippers in that order.
************************************ The Predictions:
"The First Home stand"
Phoenix - 11/13
Golden State - 11/16
Denver - 11/17 (second of back-to-back)
Three home games that are key. If the Sonics don't grab at least two of these games, they put tremendous pressure on themselves to do something miraculous against superior talent in Texas. All games are winnable, the Sonics generally do well at home, but all three teams have the ability to beat the Sonics, particularly if the Sonics play like last week. Sonic killer Van Exel greets us on a back to back.
SFS Prediction: 2-1
"Texas 2 Step"
@Dallas - 11/20
@San Antonio - 11/21 (secof back-to-back)
I mentioned stealing games. One of these games has to be stolen. My money is on the Dallas game; being it's the first of this back-to-back. I don't think the Spurs are going to let us into their gym and walk out with another win. Not after the way we beat them in our home opener. In Seattle earlier this year, the officials let a lot of contact on Duncan and Robinson slide. We're in San Antonio this time; and we won't have the benefits of the calls from the refs. If we lose both here, which isn't the end of the world, we had to have taken two if not three from "The Home Stand": the Phoenix, Golden State, Denver tour in Seattle.
SFS Prediction: 0-2
"The Second Home Stand"
Houston - 11/23
Indiana - 11/25
Minnesota - 11/27
We generally don't have much luck with Minnesota. With the way we are playing now and with the Timberwolves undefeated that might be hard win, even played in Seattle. Houston is also playing well. They are beatable, but so are we. We generally split with Houston and the contest could go either way. Indiana is currently struggling, and that is a must win game. These are all crucial home games, and again we have to win two out of the three to stay afloat in the west.
SFS Prediction: 2-1
"The 'Emergency Level Delta' Center"
@Utah - 11/28 (2nd of back-to-back)
Sigh, one of those games you have to put an "L" next to on the calendar. We'd need nothing short of an act of God to win this one.
SFS Prediction: 0-1
"Champions Weekend"
LA Lakers - 11/30
Milwaukee - 12/2
Things get exciting here. Key Arena should be packed. Despite both teams being superior, I expect the Sonics to meet the challenge and play two competitive games. Its scary to think what Shaq might do in the middle when you consider what Divac, McCulloch, Malone, Marks and Stepania did to us. Lakers are undefeated right now, and the Kobe Stopper wears black and red. Karl visiting the "new" Key Arena should be interesting. He'll want this win as long as Wally is affiliated with the franchise. Reality is, we could win or lose both these games. The Lakers can't be too happy we swept them last year.
SFS Prediction: 1-1
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