I hope to flesh out this post a little bit more later, but to inform my selections on Pac-12 end-of-season awards, I went through and ran my NBA rating system (WARP) strictly for conference games. The ratings for everyone in the conference are below. One unfortunate note: the Pac-12 site hadn’t yet updated for last night’s games, so Cal, Stanford, Arizona and Arizona State stats are based on 17 games. Adjust accordingly.
Player of the Year: Devoe Joseph, Oregon
Briefly, I think this is a complete tossup and you could make a case for about a half-dozen people. The one big question the stats raise is why Jorge Gutierrez gets so much more credit for Cal’s success than Allen Crabbe, who puts up Terrence Ross-like stats on a good team with minimal hype. I value Gutierrez’s contributions, but don’t overlook Crabbe.
Coach of the Year: Dana Altman, Oregon
Most of the commentary on this pick has gone along the lines of “Altman’s teams didn’t exceed expectations as much as others” (Tad Boyle and Lorenzo Romar, notably). I don’t know exactly when Coach of the Year evolved into “Coach who beat preseason projections by the most of the Year,” but it’s past time for that to stop. Sometimes we were just wrong. I had Colorado 11th in the Pac-12. I was wrong. I didn’t know the team well enough coming from the Big 12, and didn’t realize how good the Buffaloes’ incoming freshman guards were. (More on that in a moment.) I think both Boyle and Romar had fine seasons (you know my feelings on Romar, the actual winner), but if I had to pick a coach to lead my team based on their performance this specific season, it would be Altman. In a sense, Altman is penalized in terms of expectations for doing such a good job in his first season in Eugene. Part of the reason Oregon was picked fifth in the conference was because the Ducks dramatically overachieved last year, in large part due to Altman’s arrival.
Freshman of the Year: Tony Wroten, Washington
A no-brainer pick, really. Player of the Year would have been a bit of a stretch for Wroten–Ross was, to me, the Huskies’ most valuable player–but for a freshman Wroten was terrific and every bit as good as advertised if not better.
Defensive Player of the Year: Andre Roberson, Colorado
Another Gutierrez pick in reality. The best defensive guard cannot possibly have as much impact on the game as the best defensive big man. Roberson is an elite rebounder and shot blocker who also generated steals more frequently than Gutierrez. Enjoy this man before he bolts for the NBA.
Most Improved Player: Brock Motum, Washington State
Motum’s development from fringe big man to the best in the conference has truly been remarkable.
All-Pac-12 First Team (done the real way)
G – Devoe Joseph, Oregon
G – Jorge Gutierrez, California
F – Terrence Ross, Washington
F – Allen Crabbe, California
C – Brock Motum, Washington State
G – Tony Wroten, Washington
G – Jared Cunningham, Oregon State
F – Solomon Hill, Arizona
F – Andre Roberson, Colorado
C – Travis Wear, UCLA
G – Kyle Fogg, Arizona
G – Justin Cobbs, California
F – E.J. Singler, Oregon
F – Josh Owens, Stanford
C – Jesse Perry, Arizona
All-Freshman Team
Tony Wroten, Washington
Spencer Dinwiddie, Colorado
Chasson Randle, Stanford
Askia Booker, Colorado
David Kravish, California
I fully expected Nick Johnson to make it, too, before I started the process. Wroten, Dinwiddie and Randle were a cut above everyone else as successful freshman starters. Kravish was one of the conference’s most efficient scorers. That leaves Booker, who apparently didn’t even get any votes for the team. When I watched Colorado play, Booker was as important to the team’s success as anyone on the roster. His ability to penetrate made the Buffalo attack much more dangerous. Really, though, this last spot is about how you value non-conference play vis-a-vis conference play for postseason awards, since Johnson was at his best in November and December and Booker came on as soon as Pac-12 play began.
All-Defensive Team
G – Jorge Gutierrez, Cal
G – Jared Cunningham, Oregon State
F – Marcus Capers, Washington State
F – Andre Roberson, Colorado
C – Aziz N’Diaye, Washington
Mostly agree with the real picks; Capers was next in line, but lost out to Kyle Fogg.
Player Tm ORtg DRtg Win% WARP --------------------------------------------------------- Andre Roberson COL 107.3 96.6 .812 5.4 Allen Crabbe CAL 109.7 103.6 .691 4.3 Brock Motum WSU 112.0 106.3 .674 4.1 Devoe Joseph ORE 110.7 105.7 .656 4.1 Terrence Ross UW 107.1 101.6 .677 3.9 Kyle Fogg ARI 109.1 103.6 .673 3.7 Tony Wroten UW 107.2 102.4 .654 3.6 Solomon Hill ARI 107.6 102.6 .661 3.6 Jared Cunningham OSU 109.0 105.3 .620 3.5 Travis Wear UCLA 110.5 103.9 .702 3.3 Devon Collier OSU 110.0 104.2 .681 3.3 Justin Cobbs CAL 108.3 104.4 .624 3.3 Jorge Gutierrez CAL 106.5 102.9 .618 3.1 Lazeric Jones UCLA 107.5 104.4 .599 3.1 Josh Owens STA 106.7 102.7 .631 2.9 EJ Singler ORE 109.0 105.8 .605 2.9 Tyler Lamb UCLA 104.7 102.2 .581 2.5 Carlos Emory ORE 111.6 104.1 .726 2.5 Eric Moreland OSU 103.4 98.8 .653 2.4 Jesse Perry ARI 107.0 104.7 .577 2.3 Player Tm ORtg DRtg Win% WARP --------------------------------------------------------- Jordan Bachynski ASU 107.1 102.2 .660 2.2 Joshua Smith UCLA 109.9 103.9 .688 2.1 Jason Washburn UTAH 105.5 103.7 .560 2.1 CJ Wilcox UW 109.0 105.6 .610 2.0 Spencer Dinwiddie COL 106.6 104.7 .560 2.0 Jerime Anderson UCLA 104.6 103.6 .533 1.9 Olu Ashaolu ORE 108.1 104.7 .611 1.8 Harper Kamp CAL 106.3 105.1 .542 1.8 David Wear UCLA 107.3 106.0 .544 1.8 David Kravish CAL 105.4 103.6 .559 1.8 Garrett Sim ORE 107.3 106.6 .523 1.7 Carlon Brown COL 106.2 105.3 .531 1.6 Josh Huestis STA 104.2 102.0 .572 1.6 Austin Dufault COL 106.0 105.2 .527 1.5 Askia Booker COL 107.3 105.4 .563 1.5 Aziz N'Diaye UW 103.9 103.3 .520 1.3 Brendon Lavender ARI 109.2 107.4 .558 1.2 Ahmad Starks OSU 106.8 107.2 .489 1.2 Chasson Randle STA 106.4 106.7 .490 1.2 Garrett Jackson USC 102.7 102.9 .494 1.1 Player Tm ORtg DRtg Win% WARP --------------------------------------------------------- Maurice Jones USC 102.7 103.6 .466 1.1 Cedric Martin UTAH 105.8 106.5 .475 1.0 Abe Lodwick WSU 107.2 106.8 .511 1.0 Nick Johnson ARI 103.9 104.5 .481 0.9 Joe Burton OSU 104.0 104.4 .486 0.9 Roberto Nelson OSU 105.9 106.1 .493 0.9 Josiah Turner ARI 102.1 102.8 .476 0.8 John Gage STA 107.7 105.4 .574 0.8 Trent Lockett ASU 103.6 104.0 .487 0.8 DaVonte Lacy WSU 105.9 107.0 .465 0.8 Dwight Powell STA 102.5 102.5 .501 0.8 Tony Woods ORE 102.4 102.4 .499 0.7 Darnell Gant UW 105.2 106.2 .467 0.7 DJ Shelton WSU 106.3 105.5 .526 0.7 Anthony Stover UCLA 100.4 98.4 .571 0.6 Faisal Aden WSU 106.2 104.8 .548 0.6 Kevin Parrom ARI 107.6 105.4 .571 0.6 Aaron Bright STA 105.8 107.3 .449 0.6 Brett Kingma ORE 113.9 104.2 .776 0.6 Richard Solomon CAL 108.8 100.1 .763 0.5 Player Tm ORtg DRtg Win% WARP --------------------------------------------------------- Dewayne Dedmon USC 105.9 105.6 .507 0.5 Robert Thurman CAL 106.5 107.0 .481 0.4 Nate Tomlinson COL 104.9 107.0 .433 0.4 Emerson Murray CAL 110.7 105.6 .659 0.4 Dijon Farr UTAH 102.3 104.4 .432 0.4 Reggie Moore WSU 104.5 106.7 .426 0.3 Greg Allen USC 104.1 106.0 .437 0.3 Anthony Brown STA 102.7 104.8 .429 0.3 Tyrone Nared ORE 101.1 102.7 .446 0.3 Jonathan Gilling ASU 105.4 107.9 .421 0.3 Angelo Chol ARI 101.7 103.4 .444 0.2 Desmond Simmons UW 102.0 104.2 .425 0.2 Chanse Creekmur ASU 104.0 106.5 .418 0.2 Marcus Capers WSU 103.2 105.8 .413 0.1 Angus Brandt OSU 105.5 108.1 .412 0.1 Jack Ryan STA 109.4 97.8 .827 0.1 Pierre Newton ASU 121.9 107.2 .858 0.1 Shawn Kemp UW 104.2 106.0 .441 0.1 Martin Breunig UW 106.5 106.6 .499 0.1 Dave Whitmore ASU 106.6 104.2 .579 0.1 Player Tm ORtg DRtg Win% WARP --------------------------------------------------------- Daniel Jones OSU 108.3 94.9 .865 0.1 George Matthews UTAH 97.9 99.3 .449 0.0 Max Wiepking ARI 142.6 97.1 .995 0.0 Andy Brown STA 103.2 105.0 .439 0.0 Bak Bak CAL 101.8 104.4 .414 0.0 Rhys Murphy OSU 103.3 105.4 .429 0.0 Matt DeMarcus UCLA 105.6 104.5 .538 0.0 Dave Wink WSU 106.8 109.7 .406 0.0 Danilo Dragovic USC 95.7 109.7 .128 0.0 Drew Mellon ARI 95.5 118.2 .048 0.0 Jordin Mayes ARI 100.8 103.8 .400 0.0 Beau Webb COL 104.8 109.7 .347 0.0 Jullian Powers OSU 95.8 109.7 .130 0.0 Alex Rossi CAL 104.4 108.9 .355 0.0 Quinton Crawford ARI 79.8 109.7 .012 0.0 Ben Mills COL 95.4 101.2 .304 0.0 Dondre Wise ARI 94.9 109.7 .116 0.0 Tyler Sugiyama USC 95.7 107.4 .165 0.0 Tyler Trapani UCLA 94.6 109.7 .112 0.0 Brendan Sherrer UW 99.7 108.6 .230 0.0 Player Tm ORtg DRtg Win% WARP --------------------------------------------------------- Alex Wegner UW 85.2 109.7 .028 0.0 Jack Trotter STA 102.8 106.8 .369 0.0 Nicholas Lucenti ORE 71.7 109.7 .003 -0.1 David Brown UCLA 85.1 98.4 .115 -0.1 Keala King ASU 99.4 104.8 .323 -0.1 Kenny Jones UCLA 99.4 110.5 .186 -0.1 Alex Jacobson ARI 97.1 110.5 .140 -0.1 CJ Mitchell OSU 91.7 107.4 .098 -0.1 Andrew Zimmermann STA 101.6 105.2 .381 -0.1 Aaron Fuller USC 101.5 105.3 .373 -0.1 Wade Morgan STA 72.4 112.7 .002 -0.1 Brendan Lane UCLA 101.9 106.8 .341 -0.1 Robbie Lemons STA 78.8 112.2 .007 -0.1 Trey Eckloff COL 81.2 108.0 .018 -0.1 Jeff Powers CAL 98.2 110.5 .161 -0.1 Chris Colvin ASU 103.0 106.4 .389 -0.1 Will DiIorio WSU 99.0 107.5 .239 -0.2 Josh Watkins UTAH 101.6 105.7 .363 -0.2 Kyryl Natyazhko ARI 97.4 108.6 .179 -0.2 Shannon Sharpe COL 96.6 106.8 .197 -0.2 Player Tm ORtg DRtg Win% WARP --------------------------------------------------------- A Seferian UW 100.5 106.2 .315 -0.2 Max Heller ASU 98.4 105.8 .267 -0.2 Blake Wilkinson UTAH 100.1 105.7 .320 -0.2 Sabatino Chen COL 101.5 105.8 .358 -0.2 Kyle Perkins UTAH 99.9 106.3 .296 -0.2 Patrick Simon WSU 97.0 109.3 .158 -0.2 Christian BEHRENS CAL 96.2 109.6 .138 -0.2 Hikeem Stewart UW 95.8 109.3 .137 -0.2 Damiene Cain COL 93.2 107.8 .116 -0.2 Stefan Nastic STA 99.5 106.6 .276 -0.3 Dexter Kernich WSU 101.3 107.1 .315 -0.3 Kevin McShane OSU 101.6 107.6 .309 -0.3 Norman Powell UCLA 102.1 106.3 .363 -0.3 Carrick Felix ASU 101.5 105.4 .372 -0.4 Abdul Gaddy UW 103.1 106.9 .377 -0.4 Charlie Enquist WSU 97.0 104.0 .274 -0.4 Jeremy Adams COL 99.9 106.3 .296 -0.5 Mike Ladd WSU 101.0 106.6 .318 -0.5 Johnathan Loyd ORE 101.4 106.9 .325 -0.5 Alex Mortensen UTAH 87.3 105.5 .066 -0.5 Player Tm ORtg DRtg Win% WARP --------------------------------------------------------- Daniel Munoz USC 95.1 106.5 .171 -0.6 Byron Wesley USC 100.4 104.4 .367 -0.6 Jeremy Jacob ORE 101.2 107.1 .313 -0.6 Ruslan Pateev ASU 99.3 104.6 .326 -0.6 Alexis Moore USC 100.9 105.7 .343 -0.7 Chris Hines UTAH 103.6 108.1 .356 -0.7 Tunks, Harris COL 98.9 106.6 .260 -0.8 Brandon Smith CAL 96.5 105.6 .222 -0.8 Eric Strangis USC 98.5 107.5 .227 -0.9 Kyle Cain ASU 98.5 105.0 .288 -0.9 James Blasczyk USC 100.5 106.6 .306 -1.0 Jarrett Mann STA 99.8 107.1 .272 -1.0 Javon Dawson UTAH 98.5 106.7 .244 -1.1 Challe Barton OSU 97.2 109.8 .153 -1.3 Anthony Odunsi UTAH 95.2 107.1 .161 -1.5 Kareem Storey UTAH 99.7 107.7 .254 -1.7
Interesting how David Wear ranked so much lower than Travis. Before the year started, the expectations for David where higher than Travis.
Their stats were generally similar, with the exception of Travis blocking shots about five times more frequently. (He also had a lower turnover rate and slightly higher usage, which explains the difference.) What’s bizarre is that David was the marginally better shot blocker at UNC.
Love the advanced stats and the fact that you didn’t pick Gutierrez for both. Will never get that decision by them, but the voters never get it right anyway. Crabbe is better than Gutierrez, and win shares helps prove that point. Gutierrez is the most overrated player in the conference.
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