With the NIT set to tip off shortly, here’s a statistical look at the probability of each school advancing and ultimately winning the title of the nation’s 69th-best team. This is in the same spirit as Ken Pomeroy’s log5 projections, though it does not actually utilize the log5 model. To incorporate home-court advantage, I use Jeff Sagarin’s predictor ratings, with the Pythagorean method giving a probability of each team winning based on rating plus any appropriate home-court advantage.
Here are the figures:
School Sagarin 2R QF FF Final Champ -------------------------------------------------------- Virginia 84.6 .969 .773 .538 .323 .179 Kentucky 85.0 .782 .642 .437 .288 .164 Baylor 85.0 .922 .764 .405 .266 .152 Iowa 85.0 .898 .606 .290 .179 .102 Southern Miss 81.8 .920 .729 .493 .200 .088 Alabama 81.9 .912 .583 .368 .155 .069 Maryland 82.5 .887 .598 .298 .133 .062 Tennessee 82.2 .831 .371 .183 .077 .035 School Sagarin 2R QF FF Final Champ -------------------------------------------------------- Stanford 82.7 .808 .357 .148 .067 .032 Denver 82.2 .752 .310 .152 .066 .030 BYU 80.5 .694 .422 .183 .065 .025 Providence 80.1 .828 .280 .078 .036 .013 Massachusetts 79.3 .648 .287 .083 .032 .011 Saint Joseph's 80.4 .749 .182 .058 .025 .010 Washington 79.2 .306 .169 .053 .016 .005 Arizona St. 78.7 .608 .130 .043 .017 .005 School Sagarin 2R QF FF Final Champ -------------------------------------------------------- Detroit 79.5 .392 .092 .025 .011 .004 Florida St. 77.3 .632 .161 .047 .011 .003 Ohio 79.1 .248 .076 .020 .006 .002 Stony Brook 79.2 .352 .074 .016 .006 .002 Louisiana Tech 77.6 .368 .097 .030 .008 .002 SFA 77.7 .192 .052 .012 .003 .001 St. John's 77.5 .251 .043 .010 .003 .001 Mercer 76.4 .169 .038 .008 .002 .000 School Sagarin 2R QF FF Final Champ -------------------------------------------------------- Indiana St. 75.7 .102 .033 .004 .001 .000 Charlotte 74.6 .172 .036 .005 .001 .000 Robert Morris 74.2 .218 .042 .004 .001 .000 Long Beach St. 74.1 .078 .015 .002 .000 .000 Niagara 74.1 .113 .015 .002 .000 .000 Charleston 71.6 .080 .012 .001 .000 .000 Northeastern 72.1 .088 .008 .001 .000 .000 Norfolk St. 68.8 .031 .002 .000 .000 .000
A few notable things:
– As compared to the four-letter tournament, seeding is even more important in the NIT because the first three rounds are played at host sites. So Iowa, despite being tied for the best rating, has only the fifth-best chance of reaching the semifinals at Madison Square Garden as a No. 3 seed.
– Virginia got the most favorable draw of the top teams. The Cavaliers’ opening-round game against Norfolk State is close to a 1-16 matchup in terms of lopsidedness, and their second-round game should be relatively easy. It’s not until a potential quarterfinal matchup with Iowa that UVa will really be tested.
– Baylor also got a tough break. The Bears are the second team with a power rating of 85.0, but happen to be in the same bracket as the third (Kentucky), and would have to play at Rupp Arena if both teams advance to the quarterfinals.
– Sagarin likes UK quite a bit more than Pomeroy, who has the ‘Cats in 41st, and especially BPI (52nd), which attempts to account for Nerlens Noel’s injury. So Kentucky’s chances of winning are surely overstated. In fact, UK isn’t a sure thing to get past tonight’s game at Robert Morris, played on the road because Rupp is busy preparing to host the NCAA tournament.
– The other higher seed we know will be affected by hosting other tournaments (the NCAA women, in this case) is Tennessee. Should the Volunteers beat Mercer, they’ll have to play at the winner of BYU and Washington, which will be a long haul either way. Due to that, and playing in the most wide-open bracket, the Huskies actually got an incredibly favorable draw for a sixth seed. If they can get past Brigham Young on the road, UW has a 1 in 6 shot at reaching Madison Square Garden.
Baylor and Maryland are also hosting the women’s tournament, and it’s unclear whether these teams might have to play on the road in the second and/or third rounds.
– The widest-open bracket is in the Alabama region, where four teams have a 14.8 percent chance or better of getting to the Final Four.
– Lastly, take these projections with a note of caution that the NIT is unlike other tournaments because motivation differs so widely among teams. Every year, we see one of the top seeds sleepwalk at home and stumble to a lesser foe. So I might be understating the variability in the projections.
So much for that Huskies repeat run to NYC. We can finally put this season officially to bed. Let’s go NWG!
Where will #Howland move to next?