Special guest Danny Kelly of the Ringer joins us to break down a 22-16 Seahawks victory in Arizona that was overshadowed by the loss of star cornerback Richard Sherman to an Achilles injury. We break down all the key plays and the impact of Sherman’s injury.
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The stats in this post have been updated through Week 4 of the 2019 season.
Last Sunday against Washington, Russell Wilson had one of his worst games of the season, completing just 24-of-45 passes in the Seattle Seahawks’ 17-14 home loss. The game was played in the rain, as was Wilson’s other weak performance at home this season in a 12-9 win over the 0-8 San Francisco 49ers.
The idea that Wilson struggles in wet conditions has become something of an accepted fact among Seahawks fans at this point, but I still wanted to quantify whether this is a real phenomenon. Using Weather Underground’s archive of historical data, I charted every Seahawks regular-season home game played on a day recorded as having rain. There have been 35 of them during Wilson’s career, as compared to 19 regular-season home games with dry weather. The statistical difference in Wilson’s performance in these sets of games is striking.
Weather Comp% Y/A TD% Int% ---------------------------------- Dry 68.1% 8.8 6.9% 1.3% Rain 61.7% 7.7 6.2% 1.8%
Wilson is worse across the board in games on rainy days in Seattle, completing a remarkable 6.6 percent fewer of his pass attempts. How meaningful is this difference? Wilson’s 68.1 percent completion percentage under dry conditions would rank second to Drew Brees among NFL quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts since 2012. His 61.7 percent completion percentage in the rain would rank 37th.
By virtue of completing long passes, Wilson’s yards per attempt are better across the board than his completion percentage. But his 8.8 yards per attempt on dry days would rank second in the NFL in that span, and his 7.6 yards per attempt in the rain would rank 8th. (Naturally, other quarterbacks would look better if we look solely at their home performance.) Wilson throws touchdowns more frequently per pass attempt when it’s dry, and interceptions more frequently when it’s wet.
The kicker, as I shared during my grievance about Wilson’s performance in the rain on this week’s episode of the Fabulous Peltoncast, is the Seahawks’ record as a team by weather conditions. In regular-season home games on rainy days, they’ve gone 28-11 since drafting Wilson, a respectable 72 percent winning percentage. When it’s dry, the Seahawks have lost just twice at home with Wilson at quarterback: they’re 17-2 during the regular season, plus 2-0 in two dry home playoff games.
When we consult the stats, it’s clear: the best defense for Wilson at home is a rainy Seattle day.
(Hear my grievance about Wilson in the rain in audio format)
The Seahawks (Thursday) and Huskies (Friday) have nationally televised weeknight games this week, and we preview both of them. But first, we air some grievances about the Seahawks’ home loss to Washington and toast to the Sounders reaching the Western Conference Finals.
Contents
Intro – Congrats to loyal listener Nate for winning our Peltoncast hat giveaway
6:00 – Does Stanich’s in Portland have the nation’s best burger? (Plus thoughts on Dough Zone, Tat’s and Ma’ono fried chicken at Rachel’s Ginger Beer in University Village)
14:00 – Arena update: Election results, Tim Leiweke media tour, musicians for music-only KeyArena renovation and questions about timetable of KeyArena MOU vote
25:00 – UW men’s basketball season preview (and Saint Martin’s scare)
37:00 – Sounders beat Vancouver to reach MLS Western Conference Finals (plus Reign coaching change)
43:00 – Huskies crush Oregon and prepare for Friday night showdown with Stanford
1:02 – Airing grievances on Russell Wilson in the rain and more
1:15 – Breaking down the disconnect between Arizona’s 4-4 record and dismal advanced stats
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Links
– Peltoncast Seattle Burger Special with Kevin Alexander
– Kevin Alexander’s burger rankings
– Seattle Times: With lessons learned, Oak View Group’s Tim Leiweke is doing it his way
– Tim Leiweke sit down with Bill Wixey
– King5: Macklemore, Sir Mix-a-Lot, other musicians back SoDo arena, KeyArena remodel
– King5: Seattle arena ‘designed to deliver an NHL team by 2020’ says councilmember
– FourFourTwo: How Laura Harvey leaving Seattle forecasts her promising future with the USWNT
– KenPom.com: The Boeheim Exception
– American Soccer Analysis: Expected Goals
– ESPN NCAA Football Power Index
– ESPN NCAA QBR
– Pro Football Reference: List of “Stantons”
A Halloween edition of the Peltoncast ranks our top five best and worst candies before discussing why Oregon is much scarier with Justin Herbert and breaking down the Seahawks’ surprising trade for LT Duane Brown.
Contents
Intro – How you can win a Peltoncast hat
7:30 – Ranking our top five (Kevin) and bottom five (Tristan) Halloween candies
21:00 – Questions from Sodo Arena group about KeyArena renovation EIS (BTW the election is a week from today, which is technically within two weeks but Kevin misstated that)
26:30 – First look at Husky hoops
29:00 – Sounders return home needing a win over Vancouver to advance
34:00 – It’s Oregon week, and the big question is who plays QB for the Ducks
48:00 – What can Brown do for the Seahawks? Plus previewing an injury-hit Washington team (We recorded this before news broke that Russell Wilson was restructuring his contract to fit in Brown’s salary)
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Links
– Peltoncast Seahawks-Texans Recap
– FiveThirtyEight: The ultimate Halloween candy power ranking
– Sonics Rising: Sodo legal maneuvers derail campaign reboot
– Seattle Times: Sodo group says KeyArena renovation should be public, not private process
– Seattle.gov: EIS homepage
– City Inside/Out: Council Edition
– American Soccer Analysis: Expected Goals
– Players Tribune: “Me Too” by Breanna Stewart
– FiveThirtyEight College Football Playoff predictions
– ESPN NCAA Football Power Index
– Duane Brown’s 2016 stats from Football Outsiders Almanac
– ESPN NFL QBR
A special episode recaps the Seahawks’ thrilling, come-from-behind victory over the Houston Texans Sunday behind a franchise-record 452 yards from Russell Wilson. We go through all the highs and lows of an emotional roller coaster for Seahawks fans.
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To celebrate a year back podcasting, the Peltoncast previews the Sounders’ playoff matchup with Vancouver, scouts a UW … day game? … against UCLA and considers how terrified to be of Texans rookie Deshaun Watson.
Contents
Intro – We drink Rogue Farms’ Pumpkin Patch Ale and discuss Kevin‘s trip to Portland
11:30 – Mayoral candidates continue to weigh in on arena debate
15:30 – After a first-round bye, Sounders face Whitecaps in a playoff Cascadia Showdown
24:00 – Why Huskies should run all over UCLA on Saturday
34:00 – Airing a grievance on 10 seasons without the Sonics
36:30 – Looking at why Dwight Freeney could help the Seahawks and breaking down the Texans’ surprising advanced stats. (Although not quite as surprising as I said: Houston actually ranks 15th in rushing DVOA, not 23rd.)
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Links
– Peltoncast Shea Serrano Interview
– Peltoncast Rap Year Book Special
– Rogue Farms Pumpkin Patch Ale
– Burger Stevens
– Seattle Center Arena: Design Open House
– King5: Mayoral Debate
– Duff McKagan tweets about arena debate
– FiveThirtyEight: SPI projections
– American Soccer Analysis: Expected Goals
– FiveThirtyEight College Football Playoff predictions
– ESPN NCAA Football Power Index
– ESPN NCAA QBR
New York Times bestselling author Shea Serrano joins us to talk about his new book Basketball (and Other Things), why he loved Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp, how good Deshaun Watson is and more.
Note if you’re listening with small children that this interview includes more swearing than the typical Peltoncast.
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Links
– The Peltoncast Rap Year Book Special
– Basketball (and Other Things): A Collection of Questions Asked, Answered, Illustrated
– Shea Serrano on Twitter
– Hollywood Reporter: Mike Schur Developing Family Comedy at ABC
A special episode, originally taped in 2015 while the Peltoncast was on hiatus, sees Kevin and Tristan discuss and debate the songs of the year chosen by Shea Serrano in his bestselling book, The Rap Year Book.
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Links
– Peltoncast interview with Shea Serrano
– The Rap Year Book
We’ve got a grievance or two to air in the wake of UW’s stunning loss at Arizona State. But we also take time to celebrate a Sounders playoff berth and ask whether the Giants really turned things around.
Contents
Intro – Kicking off prestige beer season with Fremont Dark Star Spice Wars
5:00 – Where does the Sodo Arena street vacation request stand?
16:00 – 2017-18 NBA preview: players to watch, Blazers, Markelle Fultz
47:30 – Sounders clinch ninth consecutive playoff berth, have chance at bye
52:00 – Airing grievances about the Huskies’ loss in the desert
1:09 – What changed with the Giants in their SNF win over the Broncos?
1:18 – Reece Lazarus from Bully joins us to discuss the band’s new album, “Loser,” and give chances of victory for the Seahawks
DOWNLOAD/STREAM THE FABULOUS PELTONCAST NO. 77
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Links
– King 5: Mayoral candidates on “The Sound” podcast
– Tuesday: WNBA announces relocation of San Antonio Stars to Las Vegas (note that the team will in fact play at the Mandalay Bay Events Center)
– ESPN Insider: Final RPM Projections
– Kevin’s Reddit AMA
– Basketball (and Other Things)
– FiveThirtyEight: SPI projections
– American Soccer Analysis: Expected Goals
– YouTube: Silicon Valley and “RIGBY”
– Seattle Times: Chris Petersen transcript
– FiveThirtyEight College Football Playoff predictions
– ESPN NCAA Football Power Index
– Ben B.: Every week, the Seahawks turn an opposing defensive lineman into a superstar
– Bully at Neumos details/tickets
ESPN Seahawks reporter Brady Henderson joins us to discuss the team’s win in L.A. and 3-2 start heading into a bye week. Before that, UW football keeps rolling and can Seattle support two arenas?
Contents
Intro – Thanks to everyone who came out for Seattle sports trivia night!
5:00 – Chris Hansen makes case for street vacation at City Council hearing
13:30 – Heavy signs about the USMNT missing the World Cup
18:30 – New Storm head coach Dan Hughes not shying from expectations
20:30 – Huskies dominate Cal; #Pac12AfterDark fear?
32:00 – Airing grievances on Husky angst; schedule focus; and Thomas Rawls‘ role
38:30 – Breaking down the Seahawks’ 3-2 start and what it means for the rest of 2017, plus who’s the best quote in the locker room?
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Links
– Photos from Seattle Sports Trivia Night
– “Big Time Bites” with Rich Cho
– The Peltoncast joins the Tasteful Profanity podcast
– Seattle Times: Hansen to city council “We’re in it to the end”
– Seattle Times: Hansen won’t try to block KeyArena plan, pushes for two arena scenario
– King 5: Hansen says Sodo project not dead,
room for two arenas in Seattle
– King 5: Seattle mayor, council candidates talk KeyArena, Sodo Arena
– FiveThirtyEight: SPI projections
– American Soccer Analysis: Expected Goals
– Seattle Times: Dan Hughes comes out of retirement and takes a chance on the Storm
– Summitt Hoops podcast with Dan Hughes
– ESPN NCAA Football Power Index
– Seahawks in control of NFC West after win over Rams
– Seahawks hope jump-ball connection jump-starts Jimmy Graham in red zone