{"id":104,"date":"2012-03-18T01:56:49","date_gmt":"2012-03-18T01:56:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kcpelton.wordpress.com\/?p=104"},"modified":"2012-03-18T01:56:49","modified_gmt":"2012-03-18T01:56:49","slug":"the-best-performance-of-the-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/2012\/03\/18\/the-best-performance-of-the-year\/","title":{"rendered":"The Best Performance of the Year"},"content":{"rendered":"

After Friday’s Washington win over Northwestern, I noted on Twitter that the Huskies’ best performance of the season had come in the NIT. I wanted to see if that could be justified statistically. My method, same as for looking at UW’s football performance on a game-by-game basis, was to adjust Sagarin predictor rating<\/strong><\/a> for location and then subtract that from the actual outcome. You could do something similar with Ken Pomeroy<\/strong>‘s ratings, but I’m not sure how he adjusts for location.<\/p>\n

So, for example, the Huskies should be expected to beat the Wildcats by 4.8 points at home, based on national home-court advantage figures. (In practice, Washington shows a slightly larger home\/road split.) Instead, the margin of victory was 21. Take the former from the latter and the Huskies played 16.2 points better than normal on Friday night, which was in fact their best performance of the season.<\/p>\n

If we graph Washington’s game-by-game performance, it looks like this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

There’s not really a trend here. The Huskies’ best games were distributed fairly randomly throughout the season, as were their poor performances. So I’m not sure we learned much here except that Washington really did find its best gear on Friday.<\/p>\n

Complete Ratings<\/strong><\/p>\n

Game\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Outcome\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Rating\n------------------------------------------\nvs. Georgia St.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 91-74\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11.7\nvs. Florida Atlantic\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 77-71\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -8.6\nvs. Portland\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 93-63\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.8\nat Saint Louis\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 L, 77-64\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -4.3\nvs. Houston Baptist\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 88-65\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -3.4\nat Nevada\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 L, 76-73\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -4.1\nMarquette (N)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 L, 79-77\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.1\nDuke (N)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 L, 86-80\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.2\nvs. UC Santa Barbara\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 87-80\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.5\nvs. South Dakota St.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 L, 92-73\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -23.8\nvs. CS Northridge\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 74-51\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.9\nvs. Oregon St.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 95-80\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.5\nvs. Oregon\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 76-60\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11.5\nat Colorado\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 L, 87-69\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -16.8\nat Utah\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 57-53\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -12.2\nvs. Seattle\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 91-83\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -9.0\nvs. Washington St.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 75-65\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.4\nvs. California\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 L, 69-66\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -4.1\nvs. Stanford\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 76-63\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.8\nat Arizona St.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 60-54\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -3.2\nat Arizona\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 69-67\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.9\nvs. UCLA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 71-69\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.1\nvs. USC\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 69-41\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.2\nat Oregon\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 L, 82-57\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -22.5\nat Oregon St.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 75-72\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\nvs. Arizona St.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 77-69\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -8.3\nvs. Arizona\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 79-70\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.8\nat Washington St.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 59-55\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.5\nat USC\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 80-58\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 13.3\nat UCLA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 L, 75-69\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -3.0\nOregon St. (N)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 L, 86-84\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -3.9\nvs. Texas Arlington\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 82-72\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.7\nvs. Northwestern\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 W, 76-55\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 16.2<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
After Friday’s Washington win over Northwestern, I noted on Twitter that the Huskies’ best performance of the season had come in the NIT. I wanted to see if that could be justified statistically. My method, same as for looking at … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"series":[],"class_list":["post-104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-huskymbb"],"episode_featured_image":false,"episode_player_image":"https:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/peltoncast_itunes-1.jpg","download_link":"","player_link":"","audio_player":false,"episode_data":{"playerMode":"dark","subscribeUrls":{"apple_podcasts":{"key":"apple_podcasts","url":"","label":"Apple Podcasts","class":"apple_podcasts","icon":"apple-podcasts.png"},"stitcher":{"key":"stitcher","url":"","label":"Stitcher","class":"stitcher","icon":"stitcher.png"},"google_podcasts":{"key":"google_podcasts","url":"","label":"Google Podcasts","class":"google_podcasts","icon":"google-podcasts.png"},"spotify":{"key":"spotify","url":"","label":"Spotify","class":"spotify","icon":"spotify.png"}},"rssFeedUrl":"https:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/feed\/podcast\/the-fabulous-peltoncast","embedCode":"
The Best Performance of the Year<\/a><\/blockquote>