{"id":130,"date":"2012-11-12T00:18:40","date_gmt":"2012-11-12T00:18:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kcpelton.wordpress.com\/?p=130"},"modified":"2012-11-12T00:18:40","modified_gmt":"2012-11-12T00:18:40","slug":"a-blowout-upset","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/2012\/11\/12\/a-blowout-upset\/","title":{"rendered":"A Blowout Upset"},"content":{"rendered":"

When the line for Saturday’s Utah-Washington game at Century Link Field came out last week, Husky fans were surprised to see their team as a slight underdog<\/strong><\/a> despite a superior record (5-4 vs. 4-5) and home-field advantage. Based on the numbers, the line made perfect sense.<\/p>\n

In one sense, Washington and Utah are mirror images. The Huskies’ record dramatically overstates the team’s performance, while the Utes have played better than their sub-.500 record. Jeff Sagarin’s rankings for USA Today<\/em> allow us to make this comparison<\/a><\/strong> because Sagarin includes two different rankings: One, ELO Chess, that takes into account only opponent, location and win\/loss (the BCS uses this version to discourage teams from running up the score) and another (Predictor) that uses margin of victory rather than win\/loss (and is more accurate).<\/p>\n

Washington has one of the largest differences between these two ratings of any major-conference team. Here are the 10 teams whose ELO Chess score most exceeds their Predictor score:<\/p>\n

School\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ELO\u00a0 Rk\u00a0\u00a0 PRED\u00a0 Rk\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Diff\n--------------------------------------------------\nUMass\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 55.1 156\u00a0\u00a0 40.7 201\u00a0\u00a0 -14.4 -45\nMiami (Ohio)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 65.3\u00a0 87\u00a0\u00a0 54.3 149\u00a0\u00a0 -11.0 -62\nCentral Michigan\u00a0\u00a0 64.6\u00a0 92\u00a0\u00a0 54.5 146\u00a0\u00a0 -10.1 -54\nNotre Dame\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 101.5\u00a0\u00a0 1\u00a0\u00a0 91.6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -9.9\u00a0 -4\nEastern Michigan\u00a0\u00a0 58.3 141\u00a0\u00a0 49.0 172\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -9.3 -31\nOhio State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 90.5\u00a0 11\u00a0\u00a0 81.5\u00a0 26\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -9.0 -15\nBuffalo\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 63.0 107\u00a0\u00a0 54.1 150\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -8.9 -43\nWake Forest\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 66.3\u00a0 81\u00a0\u00a0 57.6 130\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -8.8 -49\nTulane\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 58.1 142\u00a0\u00a0 49.4 170\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -8.7 -28\nWashington\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 85.5\u00a0 15\u00a0\u00a0 76.8\u00a0 41\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -8.7 -26<\/pre>\n
Based on wins over two top-10 teams and a number of “good” losses, the Huskies are an elite team when just wins and losses are taken into account. However, blowout losses at LSU, Oregon and Arizona and few large margins of victory means Washington’s point differential is much more average considering the schedule. Not bad, mind you–the Huskies have improved from last year, when they ranked 50th–but not as good as the record and a strength of schedule ranked second in the country would indicate.<\/p>\n
By contrast, Utah has played better than its record, getting blown out just one time all year and pounding Cal (by 22) and Washington State (by 43) at home. The Utes aren’t quite in the top 10 of the opposite ranking, but they are close, ranking 13th:<\/p>\n
School\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ELO\u00a0 Rk\u00a0\u00a0 PRED\u00a0 Rk\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Diff\n---------------------------------------------------\nBYU\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 72.3\u00a0 51\u00a0\u00a0 83.8\u00a0 18\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11.5\u00a0\u00a0 33\nFlorida State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 76.4\u00a0 34\u00a0\u00a0 87.3\u00a0 12\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.9\u00a0\u00a0 22\nFresno State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 71.0\u00a0 57\u00a0\u00a0 79.9\u00a0 27\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.9\u00a0\u00a0 30\nNorth Carolina\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 68.3\u00a0 73\u00a0\u00a0 77.1\u00a0 38\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.7\u00a0\u00a0 35\nUtah State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 74.9\u00a0 40\u00a0\u00a0 83.2\u00a0 21\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.3\u00a0\u00a0 19\nArizona State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 75.9\u00a0 36\u00a0\u00a0 84.2\u00a0 17\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.3\u00a0\u00a0 19\nAlabama\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 93.1\u00a0\u00a0 9\u00a0 100.4\u00a0\u00a0 1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8\nBoise State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 72.3\u00a0 52\u00a0\u00a0 79.4\u00a0 29\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0 23\nGeorgia Tech\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 66.7\u00a0 80\u00a0\u00a0 72.8\u00a0 56\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.1\u00a0\u00a0 24\nClemson\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 77.5\u00a0 31\u00a0\u00a0 83.6\u00a0 19\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.0\u00a0\u00a0 12\n\nUtah\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 72.7\u00a0 50\u00a0\u00a0 78.1\u00a0 33\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0 17<\/pre>\n
Factoring in home-field, Predictor showed Utah as a slight favorite entering the game–which makes it all the more remarkable that Washington not just won but dominated, 34-15. The Huskies outgained the Utes 437-188 and passed for five times as much yardage (277-55). Given the level of competition, the same method I’ve used to evaluate games in the past–actual differential minus expected differential based on opponent and location–shows this as Washington’s best performance of the season and one of the top three of the Steve Sarkisian<\/strong> era.<\/p>\n
All three share the same basic characteristics–games that should have been nearly even, but were won by the Huskies in lopsided fashion. The second should be familiar–last year’s Utah game. Washington was actually a 10-point underdog entering that game, per OddsShark.com<\/a><\/strong>, though this method shows the Utes a lot worse because they lost starting quarterback Jordan Wynn<\/strong> to injury during the game and struggled to score thereafter. Based on season-long performance, Utah and Washington were essentially similar, but the Huskies rode turnovers and a big second half from Chris Polk<\/strong> to a 31-14 road win.<\/p>\n
The other game was the finale of the 2009 season against No. 19 Cal. Again, based on the whole season, the Huskies and Golden Bears were basically even. This method shows Washington as 3.5 points better by virtue of home field; they were actually favored by six<\/a><\/strong> because of Cal’s poor finish to the season, which continued during a 42-10 Husky win, tied for the biggest margin against a Pac-12 foe in the last decade.<\/p>\n
If you want to put the 2010 Holiday Bowl–which ranks fourth–ahead of those regular-season games, I won’t blame you. By any measure, though, Saturday’s win was one of the most complete the Huskies have had in a long time. Coming just three weeks after we were musing about a lowpoint of the Sark era<\/strong><\/a>, that’s quite an encouraging change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
When the line for Saturday’s Utah-Washington game at Century Link Field came out last week, Husky fans were surprised to see their team as a slight underdog despite a superior record (5-4 vs. 4-5) and home-field advantage. Based on the … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"series":[],"class_list":["post-130","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-huskyfb"],"episode_featured_image":false,"episode_player_image":"https:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/peltoncast_itunes-1.jpg","download_link":"","player_link":"","audio_player":false,"episode_data":{"playerMode":"dark","subscribeUrls":{"apple_podcasts":{"key":"apple_podcasts","url":"","label":"Apple Podcasts","class":"apple_podcasts","icon":"apple-podcasts.png"},"stitcher":{"key":"stitcher","url":"","label":"Stitcher","class":"stitcher","icon":"stitcher.png"},"google_podcasts":{"key":"google_podcasts","url":"","label":"Google Podcasts","class":"google_podcasts","icon":"google-podcasts.png"},"spotify":{"key":"spotify","url":"","label":"Spotify","class":"spotify","icon":"spotify.png"}},"rssFeedUrl":"https:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/feed\/podcast\/the-fabulous-peltoncast","embedCode":"
A Blowout Upset<\/a><\/blockquote>