{"id":193,"date":"2013-09-09T15:50:34","date_gmt":"2013-09-09T15:50:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kcpelton.wordpress.com\/?p=193"},"modified":"2013-09-09T15:50:34","modified_gmt":"2013-09-09T15:50:34","slug":"welcoming-back-the-seahawks-third-down-weapon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/2013\/09\/09\/welcoming-back-the-seahawks-third-down-weapon\/","title":{"rendered":"Welcoming Back the Seahawks’ Third-Down Weapon"},"content":{"rendered":"

On a day where the Seattle Seahawks could never get their run going in Carolina — at least not until the final clock-killing drive — third downs loomed larger than usual. And nobody was better at converting with possession on the line than slot receiver Doug Baldwin<\/strong>. Quarterback Russell Wilson<\/strong> looked Baldwin’s direction four times on Sunday and came up with completions and first downs all four, including a tiptoe catch along the sideline on a ball Wilson appeared to be throwing away.<\/p>\n

Not only was Baldwin the Seahawks’ best option on third down — Wilson completed just two other third-down throws for first downs, one apiece to starting wideouts Sidney Rice<\/strong> and Golden Tate<\/strong> — his four catches good for first downs were tied for fourth in the NFL this weekend<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Such third-down heroics are nothing new for Baldwin. As a rookie in 2011, playing primarily with Tarvaris Jackson<\/strong>, the undrafted Baldwin was one of the league’s most productive players on third down, catching 25 passes (tied for seventh in the NFL) for 23 first downs (fourth). Here’s how Baldwin compared to the NFL’s other third down leaders:<\/p>\n

Player\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 T\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 C\u00a0\u00a0 FD\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 C%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FD%\u00a0\u00a0 FD\/C\u00a0\u00a0 Y\/T\n---------------------------------------------------------\nRoddy White\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 52\u00a0\u00a0 35\u00a0\u00a0 29\u00a0\u00a0 .673\u00a0\u00a0 .558\u00a0\u00a0 .829\u00a0\u00a0 8.4\nNate Washington\u00a0\u00a0 45\u00a0\u00a0 29\u00a0\u00a0 20\u00a0\u00a0 .644\u00a0\u00a0 .444\u00a0\u00a0 .690\u00a0\u00a0 8.0\nAntonio Brown\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 44\u00a0\u00a0 28\u00a0\u00a0 25\u00a0\u00a0 .636\u00a0\u00a0 .568\u00a0\u00a0 .893\u00a0\u00a0 9.9\nVictor Cruz\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 39\u00a0\u00a0 27\u00a0\u00a0 22\u00a0\u00a0 .692\u00a0\u00a0 .564\u00a0\u00a0 .815\u00a0 17.9\nWes Welker\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 44\u00a0\u00a0 26\u00a0\u00a0 24\u00a0\u00a0 .591\u00a0\u00a0 .545\u00a0\u00a0 .923\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\nDavone Bess\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 42\u00a0\u00a0 26\u00a0\u00a0 13\u00a0\u00a0 .619\u00a0\u00a0 .310\u00a0\u00a0 .500\u00a0\u00a0 5.9\nDoug Baldwin\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 42\u00a0\u00a0 25\u00a0\u00a0 23\u00a0\u00a0 .595\u00a0\u00a0 .548\u00a0\u00a0 .920\u00a0\u00a0 9.7\nDarren Sproles\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 32\u00a0\u00a0 25\u00a0\u00a0 12\u00a0\u00a0 .781\u00a0\u00a0 .375\u00a0\u00a0 .480\u00a0\u00a0 7.0\nAustin Collie\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 45\u00a0\u00a0 23\u00a0\u00a0 22\u00a0\u00a0 .511\u00a0\u00a0 .489\u00a0\u00a0 .957\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\nSteve Johnson\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 40\u00a0\u00a0 23\u00a0\u00a0 15\u00a0\u00a0 .575\u00a0\u00a0 .375\u00a0\u00a0 .652\u00a0\u00a0 8.1<\/pre>\n
Baldwin’s performance on third downs was nearly identical to fellow undersized, undrafted Wes Welker<\/strong>. As compared to the other most frequent third-down targets, Welker and Baldwin (and Austin Collie<\/strong>) were most efficient at turning their completions into first downs more than 90 percent of the time. The only difference? Baldwin also mixed in enough yards after catch to rank third in yards per target. (Related: Victor Cruz<\/strong>, whoa!)<\/p>\n
Such play convinced Football Outsiders to rank Baldwin No. 1 on their list of top 25 “prospects”<\/strong><\/a> (young players without starting experience or elite draft pedigree) entering last season. But while the rest of the Seahawks’ receiving core improved with Wilson replacing Jackson under center, Baldwin wasn’t nearly as effective during a sophomore campaign that was plagued by injury. He came up with just eight first downs on 13 completions among the 23 passes Wilson threw him on third down.<\/p>\n
Over such a small sample, Baldwin’s decline on third down could have been nothing but noise; he came up a yard short of the sticks three times, and turning those plays into first downs would have been enough to make him a much more effective player. However, Baldwin got worse across every down; his DVOA (Football Outsiders’ measure of per-play effectiveness) dropped from 14.2 percent better than average and tops among the team’s receives to right at league average<\/strong><\/a> and far worse than Rice and Tate.<\/p>\n
On the “Fifth Quarter” postgame show, Baldwin provided an alternative explanation, pointing out that the hamstring injury that sidelined him during training camp prevented him from getting needed work with Wilson. Indeed, this year’s Football Outsiders Almanac<\/em><\/a> <\/strong>notes that Baldwin got better as the 2012 season went on.<\/p>\n
Now healthy and with the benefit of a full camp with Wilson, Baldwin appears to have the timing he needs to be a factor on third downs. That’s a big addition to what was already a potent Seahawks passing attack.<\/p>\n
Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index<\/strong><\/a> was invaluable in calculating these stats.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On a day where the Seattle Seahawks could never get their run going in Carolina — at least not until the final clock-killing drive — third downs loomed larger than usual. And nobody was better at converting with possession on … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"series":[],"class_list":["post-193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-seahawks"],"episode_featured_image":false,"episode_player_image":"https:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/peltoncast_itunes-1.jpg","download_link":"","player_link":"","audio_player":false,"episode_data":{"playerMode":"dark","subscribeUrls":{"apple_podcasts":{"key":"apple_podcasts","url":"","label":"Apple Podcasts","class":"apple_podcasts","icon":"apple-podcasts.png"},"stitcher":{"key":"stitcher","url":"","label":"Stitcher","class":"stitcher","icon":"stitcher.png"},"google_podcasts":{"key":"google_podcasts","url":"","label":"Google Podcasts","class":"google_podcasts","icon":"google-podcasts.png"},"spotify":{"key":"spotify","url":"","label":"Spotify","class":"spotify","icon":"spotify.png"}},"rssFeedUrl":"https:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/feed\/podcast\/the-fabulous-peltoncast","embedCode":"
Welcoming Back the Seahawks’ Third-Down Weapon<\/a><\/blockquote>