{"id":59,"date":"2012-01-17T19:11:22","date_gmt":"2012-01-17T19:11:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kcpelton.wordpress.com\/?p=59"},"modified":"2012-01-17T19:11:22","modified_gmt":"2012-01-17T19:11:22","slug":"husky-plus-minus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/2012\/01\/17\/husky-plus-minus\/","title":{"rendered":"Husky Plus-Minus"},"content":{"rendered":"

Using the play-by-play data available on stats.ncaa.org<\/a><\/strong>, I have manually calculated the plus-minus numbers for the Washington Huskies for every game save the win at Utah, during which the play-by-play was too error-riddled to be reliable. (For example, a number of substitutions where players checked out but weren’t replaced by anyone. For other errors I was able to recreate the lineups by looking at who made plays, but in this case there were too many to reconstruct everything with a reasonable degree of accuracy.)<\/p>\n

Please take these numbers for what they are worth. As Ken Pomeroy<\/strong> explained well, plus-minus can be dangerous<\/strong><\/a>. In addition to the usual issues (small sample sizes, that we’re only comparing players to their replacements), at the college level there are unique problems with the quality of opposition. A player who sees most of his action against inferior opponents will look better than he should, and so on. Those caveats aside, I think there’s some value, especially in terms of evaluating combinations of players, as we will later.<\/p>\n

Let’s start with overall performance:<\/p>\n

Player\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Min\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 UW\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Opp\u00a0\u00a0 Net\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 P40\u00a0\u00a0 OP40\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Net\n------------------------------------------------------\nGaddy\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 521.3\u00a0 1061\u00a0\u00a0 953\u00a0\u00a0 108\u00a0\u00a0 81.4\u00a0\u00a0 73.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.3\nRoss\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 481.6\u00a0\u00a0 942\u00a0\u00a0 842\u00a0\u00a0 100\u00a0\u00a0 78.2\u00a0\u00a0 69.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.3\nWilcox\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 472.6\u00a0\u00a0 951\u00a0\u00a0 909\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 42\u00a0\u00a0 80.5\u00a0\u00a0 76.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.6\nWroten\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 453.6\u00a0\u00a0 919\u00a0\u00a0 866\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 53\u00a0\u00a0 81.0\u00a0\u00a0 76.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.7\nGant\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 357.4\u00a0\u00a0 724\u00a0\u00a0 607\u00a0\u00a0 117\u00a0\u00a0 81.0\u00a0\u00a0 67.9\u00a0\u00a0 13.1\nSimmons\u00a0\u00a0 338.5\u00a0\u00a0 672\u00a0\u00a0 635\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 37\u00a0\u00a0 79.4\u00a0\u00a0 75.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.4\nN'Diaye\u00a0\u00a0 333.9\u00a0\u00a0 681\u00a0\u00a0 596\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 85\u00a0\u00a0 81.6\u00a0\u00a0 71.4\u00a0\u00a0 10.2\nBreunig\u00a0\u00a0 106.1\u00a0\u00a0 218\u00a0\u00a0 239\u00a0\u00a0 -21\u00a0\u00a0 82.2\u00a0\u00a0 90.1\u00a0\u00a0 -7.9\nKemp\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 87.3\u00a0\u00a0 135\u00a0\u00a0 170\u00a0\u00a0 -35\u00a0\u00a0 61.9\u00a0\u00a0 77.9\u00a0 -16.0\nStewart\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 67.7\u00a0\u00a0 133\u00a0\u00a0 128\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 78.5\u00a0\u00a0 75.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.0\nSherrer\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 13.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 18\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 27\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -9\u00a0\u00a0 55.3\u00a0\u00a0 83.0\u00a0 -27.7\nWegner\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 16\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 23\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -7\u00a0\u00a0 54.2\u00a0\u00a0 78.0\u00a0 -23.7<\/pre>\n
In case you aren’t familiar with all these numbers, I’ll walk you through Abdul Gaddy<\/strong>‘s line. Gaddy has played 521.3 minutes, most on the team, and with him on the floor Washington has outscored the opposition 1061-953. What we’re most interested in are numbers per 40 minutes of playing time. If Gaddy was out there for an entire game, with identical lineups, we’d expect the Huskies to win 81.4 to 73.1 for an 8.3 margin.<\/p>\n
That Gaddy and Terrence Ross<\/strong> are similar makes sense, since both have been on the floor much of the time. The veteran bigs have better numbers because of their weaker replacements. Washington has been outscored with freshmen big men Martin Breunig<\/strong> and Shawn Kemp, Jr.<\/strong> on the floor. As for Tony Wroten<\/strong> and C.J. Wilcox<\/strong> … well, let’s take a look at the next cut, which is ratings by position<\/p>\n
PG\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Min\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 P40\u00a0\u00a0 OP40\u00a0 Net40\n------------------------------------\nGaddy\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 521.3\u00a0\u00a0 81.4\u00a0\u00a0 73.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.3\nWroten\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 123.1\u00a0\u00a0 72.5\u00a0\u00a0 77.6\u00a0\u00a0 -5.2\nStewart\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.5\u00a0\u00a0 88.6\u00a0\u00a0 62.0\u00a0\u00a0 26.6\n\nSG\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Min\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 P40\u00a0\u00a0 OP40\u00a0 Net40\n------------------------------------\nWroten\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 318.4\u00a0\u00a0 83.3\u00a0\u00a0 75.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.8\nWilcox\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 261.2\u00a0\u00a0 77.0\u00a0\u00a0 71.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\nStewart\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 63.2\u00a0\u00a0 77.8\u00a0\u00a0 76.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.3\nRoss\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.1\u00a0\u00a0 25.9\u00a0\u00a0 64.9\u00a0 -38.9\nWegner\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.1\u00a0\u00a0 39.1\u00a0\u00a0 52.2\u00a0 -13.0\n\nSF\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Min\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 P40\u00a0\u00a0 OP40\u00a0 Net40\n------------------------------------\nRoss\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 410.4\u00a0\u00a0 77.4\u00a0\u00a0 68.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.3\nWilcox\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 210.1\u00a0\u00a0 84.7\u00a0\u00a0 83.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.5\nWroten\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.1\u00a0 109.1\u00a0\u00a0 86.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.1\nWegner\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.7\u00a0\u00a0 59.5\u00a0\u00a0 87.0\u00a0 -27.5\nSimmons\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.7\u00a0\u00a0 47.0\u00a0\u00a0 93.9\u00a0 -47.0\n\nPF\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Min\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 P40\u00a0\u00a0 OP40\u00a0 Net40\n------------------------------------\nSimmons\u00a0\u00a0 311.9\u00a0\u00a0 80.5\u00a0\u00a0 75.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.3\nGant\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 185.6\u00a0\u00a0 78.5\u00a0\u00a0 64.2\u00a0\u00a0 14.2\nBreunig\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 69.5\u00a0\u00a0 79.4\u00a0\u00a0 80.6\u00a0\u00a0 -1.2\nRoss\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 68.2\u00a0\u00a0 85.7\u00a0\u00a0 81.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.7\nSherrer\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.2\u00a0\u00a0 51.1\u00a0\u00a0 90.5\u00a0 -39.3\nKemp\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.4\u00a0\u00a0 33.1\u00a0 149.0 -115.9\nWilcox\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.3\u00a0\u00a0 96.0\u00a0 128.0\u00a0 -32.0\n\nC\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Min\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 P40\u00a0\u00a0 OP40\u00a0 Net40\n------------------------------------\nN'Diaye\u00a0\u00a0 333.9\u00a0\u00a0 81.6\u00a0\u00a0 71.4\u00a0\u00a0 10.2\nGant\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 171.9\u00a0\u00a0 83.8\u00a0\u00a0 71.9\u00a0\u00a0 11.9\nKemp\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 84.9\u00a0\u00a0 62.7\u00a0\u00a0 75.9\u00a0 -13.2\nBreunig\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 36.6\u00a0\u00a0 87.5\u00a0 108.2\u00a0 -20.8\nSimmons\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 18.9\u00a0\u00a0 74.0\u00a0\u00a0 63.4\u00a0\u00a0 10.6\nSherrer\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.9\u00a0\u00a0 70.2\u00a0\u00a0 56.1\u00a0\u00a0 14.0<\/pre>\n
.A few things stand out here. First, Wroten has been ineffective at point guard this season. At shooting guard, he’s been the team’s best option, though partially for a reason that we’ll see in a second. The Huskies have been much better with Ross at small forward than Wilcox. And these numbers reinforce how much better Washington is with the veteran bigs on the floor. In particular, Breunig should never play center. When he’s in the middle, the Huskies have surrendered points at a preposterous rate. It’s just not fair to ask Breunig to serve as the team’s primary help defender at this stage of his development.<\/p>\n
Instead of looking at lineups, most of which have played few minutes together (just one — Gaddy\/Wilcox\/Ross\/Gant\/N’Diaye — has played more than 42 minutes total), I prefer looking at combinations on the perimeter and in the post.<\/p>\n
PG\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 SG\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 SF\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Min\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 P40\u00a0\u00a0 OP40\u00a0\u00a0 Net40\n---------------------------------------------------------\nGaddy\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Wroten\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Wilcox\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 182.5\u00a0\u00a0 88.8\u00a0\u00a0 83.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.7\nGaddy\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Wilcox\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ross\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 155.4\u00a0\u00a0 77.5\u00a0\u00a0 65.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.1\nGaddy\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Wroten\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ross\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 135.9\u00a0\u00a0 75.9\u00a0\u00a0 65.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.6\nWroten\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Wilcox\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ross\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 101.0\u00a0\u00a0 75.6\u00a0\u00a0 78.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -3.2<\/pre>\n
Wilcox at shooting guard looks much better when we take away the minutes he’s played next to Wroten. In fact, Gaddy\/Wilcox\/Ross has been the Huskies’ strongest trio. However, Gaddy\/Wroten\/Ross isn’t noticeably worse. With Wilcox’s status in question because of a stress fracture in his left femur, this group will get plenty<\/em> of work in the next few games. Intriguingly, all the combinations of Gaddy\/Wroten\/Ross with Hikeem Stewart<\/strong> have been positive, offering some hope Washington can survive Wilcox’s absence.<\/p>\n
PF\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 C\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Min\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 P40\u00a0\u00a0 OP40\u00a0\u00a0 Net40\n-----------------------------------------------\nGant\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 N'Diaye\u00a0\u00a0 168.5\u00a0\u00a0 78.8\u00a0\u00a0 66.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.3\nSimmons\u00a0\u00a0 N'Diaye\u00a0\u00a0 123.0\u00a0\u00a0 83.0\u00a0\u00a0 69.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 13.3\nSimmons\u00a0\u00a0 Gant\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 121.5\u00a0\u00a0 83.0\u00a0\u00a0 70.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.5\nRoss\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Gant\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 36.8\u00a0\u00a0 89.2\u00a0\u00a0 78.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.9\nSimmons\u00a0\u00a0 Kemp\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 35.9\u00a0\u00a0 55.8\u00a0\u00a0 79.2\u00a0\u00a0 -23.4\nBreunig\u00a0\u00a0 N'Diaye\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 31.1\u00a0\u00a0 88.7\u00a0\u00a0 86.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.6\nSimmons\u00a0\u00a0 Breunig\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 30.2\u00a0\u00a0 91.5\u00a0 114.0\u00a0\u00a0 -22.5\nBreunig\u00a0\u00a0 Kemp\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 24.8\u00a0\u00a0 64.5\u00a0\u00a0 85.4\u00a0\u00a0 -21.0<\/pre>\n
Now, this point is interesting and probably wouldn’t have occurred to me without tracking plus-minus. You may have noticed earlier than Desmond Simmons<\/strong> rates much worse overall than Darnell Gant<\/strong> and Aziz N’Diaye<\/strong>. However, all three combinations of these three players have been about identical. Simmons rates so much worse because lineups featuring him and another freshman (either Breunig or Kemp) have struggled badly. In more limited minutes, Breunig and Kemp have performed better next to either Gant or N’Diaye.<\/p>\n
Basically, Lorenzo Romar<\/strong> ought to make sure one of Gant or N’Diaye is on the floor at all times. Lately, Romar has used a three-post rotation after halftime, with one of the freshmen getting spot minutes during the first half. That has worked poorly with Breunig, who is a raw -12 in conference play and visibly looks overmatched against more experienced competition. That action would be better going to Kemp or possibly even Austin Seferian-Jenkins<\/strong> once Washington’s star tight end is up to speed on the basketball playbook.<\/p>\n
One last note on the second half of Sunday’s Apple Cup win over Washington State: Gaddy\/Wroten\/Ross\/Gant\/N’Diaye (the team’s best regular lineup this season, at +31.6 points per 40 minutes) played together for 13 minutes, outscoring the Cougars by 14 points in that span. That long run was unlike anything we’ve seen this season; before then, only once all year had a lineup gone for more than six minutes at a time (that at the end of the loss to South Dakota State).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Using the play-by-play data available on stats.ncaa.org, I have manually calculated the plus-minus numbers for the Washington Huskies for every game save the win at Utah, during which the play-by-play was too error-riddled to be reliable. (For example, a number … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"series":[],"class_list":["post-59","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-huskymbb"],"episode_featured_image":false,"episode_player_image":"https:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/peltoncast_itunes-1.jpg","download_link":"","player_link":"","audio_player":false,"episode_data":{"playerMode":"dark","subscribeUrls":{"apple_podcasts":{"key":"apple_podcasts","url":"","label":"Apple Podcasts","class":"apple_podcasts","icon":"apple-podcasts.png"},"stitcher":{"key":"stitcher","url":"","label":"Stitcher","class":"stitcher","icon":"stitcher.png"},"google_podcasts":{"key":"google_podcasts","url":"","label":"Google Podcasts","class":"google_podcasts","icon":"google-podcasts.png"},"spotify":{"key":"spotify","url":"","label":"Spotify","class":"spotify","icon":"spotify.png"}},"rssFeedUrl":"https:\/\/sonicscentral.com\/peltoncast\/feed\/podcast\/the-fabulous-peltoncast","embedCode":"
Husky Plus-Minus<\/a><\/blockquote>